Check historical price trends and seasonality for Wheat Futures (CBOT) (ZW=F).
Wheat Futures (CBOT) (ZW=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +1.71%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -2.82%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Wheat futures exhibit a strong bullish tendency from early February through May. Specifically, from February 12 to May 28, there's an average increase of +6.8%. A significant bearish phase typically occurs from late June through early September, culminating in a notable dip of -5.3% around August 30. The market then tends to recover slightly through December, ending the year with a modest gain of +1.7% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most pronounced dip occurs in late August, with a significant seasonal low around August 30, presenting a potential buying opportunity before a modest year-end rally. Another, less pronounced, pullback occurs in late November, potentially offering a secondary entry point. The period from late June to early September is driven by harvest pressures, which can create temporary price weakness.
3) Summary:
A strategic approach to wheat futures involves capitalizing on seasonal trends. Consider initiating long positions near the end of August to benefit from a potential year-end rally. Conversely, traders might consider reducing long exposure or initiating short positions in late June in anticipation of the summer decline.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 537.5000 | 2025-03-16 | 545.7500 | 8.2500 | 1.53 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 582.0000 | 2024-03-15 | 528.5000 | -53.5000 | -9.19 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 565.2500 | 2020-03-15 | 514.7500 | -50.5000 | -8.93 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 512.5000 | 2019-03-16 | 462.2500 | -50.2500 | -9.80 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 416.5000 | 2018-03-16 | 467.7500 | 51.2500 | 12.30 |
| Avg | 522.7500 | 503.8000 | -18.95 | -2.82 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +0.91% | Feb Total -1.32% | Mar Total +1.68% | Apr Total +0.95% | May Total +3.15% | Jun Total -2.78% | Jul Total +0.00% | Aug Total -4.94% | Sep Total +5.43% | Oct Total +1.11% | Nov Total -1.98% | Dec Total +3.44% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.14% | 0.00% | +0.37% | +1.12% | -0.49% | +0.64% | +0.34% | -0.61% | -0.81% | +0.07% | +0.63% | +0.83% | -0.36% |
| 2 Avg +0.12% | -0.19% | -0.37% | +0.63% | -0.47% | +0.23% | +0.42% | -0.71% | +0.22% | +0.16% | +0.78% | -0.19% | +0.89% |
| 3 Avg +0.18% | -0.73% | +0.12% | +2.16% | +0.73% | +0.36% | +0.18% | +0.63% | -0.52% | +0.16% | -0.39% | -0.03% | -0.51% |
| 4 Avg -0.04% | +0.08% | +0.08% | -0.03% | +0.02% | 0.00% | -0.27% | 0.00% | -0.24% | +0.04% | -0.50% | +0.03% | +0.37% |
| 5 Avg +0.26% | +0.30% | -0.34% | +0.42% | +0.70% | +0.44% | -0.45% | +0.81% | +0.14% | +0.22% | +0.62% | +0.19% | +0.11% |
| 6 Avg -0.14% | -0.24% | +0.10% | -0.78% | -0.31% | +0.64% | +1.56% | -0.95% | +0.09% | -0.40% | -0.48% | -0.16% | -0.71% |
| 7 Avg +0.06% | +0.25% | +0.42% | +0.17% | -0.25% | -0.13% | -0.41% | -0.05% | +0.54% | +0.01% | +0.08% | -0.59% | +0.68% |
| 8 Avg -0.05% | -0.28% | +0.18% | -1.27% | +0.55% | -0.45% | +0.36% | +1.02% | +0.07% | -0.39% | -0.16% | +0.22% | -0.41% |
| 9 Avg -0.13% | +0.58% | +0.10% | -0.81% | +0.48% | -0.71% | -0.63% | -0.11% | -0.34% | +0.53% | -0.04% | -0.65% | +0.07% |
| 10 Avg -0.01% | -0.19% | +0.02% | -0.54% | +0.08% | -0.06% | -0.64% | +0.05% | -0.21% | +0.54% | +0.08% | +0.54% | +0.22% |
| 11 Avg -0.12% | -0.24% | +0.04% | -0.41% | +0.21% | -0.20% | +0.23% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.45% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.27% |
| 12 Avg +0.19% | +0.37% | +0.47% | +0.26% | +0.27% | +0.69% | +0.10% | -0.58% | -0.48% | +0.22% | -0.03% | +0.23% | +0.74% |
| 13 Avg -0.07% | -0.04% | +0.12% | -0.16% | -0.15% | +0.21% | +0.43% | -0.73% | -0.11% | -0.09% | +0.70% | -0.61% | -0.40% |
| 14 Avg -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.36% | +0.37% | +0.07% | -0.04% | -0.90% | +0.19% | +0.17% | +0.94% | -0.21% | -0.72% | -0.19% |
| 15 Avg +0.55% | +0.22% | -0.58% | +1.88% | -0.35% | +1.43% | +0.40% | +0.21% | -0.96% | +2.28% | +0.43% | +0.03% | +1.59% |
| 16 Avg +0.00% | -0.61% | +0.07% | -1.45% | -0.68% | +0.96% | +0.53% | +0.19% | -0.16% | +0.71% | +0.27% | -0.36% | +0.55% |
| 17 Avg +0.16% | +0.63% | -0.03% | +0.60% | -0.01% | -0.42% | -0.82% | +0.58% | -0.17% | +0.50% | +0.15% | +0.54% | +0.34% |
| 18 Avg +0.14% | +0.33% | +0.66% | -0.18% | +0.69% | -0.32% | +0.23% | +0.65% | -0.15% | +0.12% | -0.37% | +0.43% | -0.38% |
| 19 Avg -0.08% | +0.12% | -0.71% | +0.25% | +0.06% | -0.52% | -0.43% | +1.16% | +0.02% | -0.46% | +0.27% | -0.27% | -0.46% |
| 20 Avg +0.09% | 0.00% | -0.18% | -0.21% | -0.12% | +1.14% | +0.09% | +0.05% | -0.25% | +0.94% | +0.01% | -0.25% | -0.13% |
| 21 Avg -0.18% | +0.40% | -0.31% | +0.36% | -0.49% | +0.01% | -0.57% | -0.40% | -0.68% | -0.55% | -0.45% | +0.05% | +0.40% |
| 22 Avg -0.04% | -0.34% | +0.75% | -0.20% | -0.01% | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.61% | -0.32% | +0.08% | -0.01% | +0.17% | +0.27% |
| 23 Avg +0.10% | -0.13% | -0.02% | +0.41% | +0.23% | +0.38% | -0.70% | -0.52% | +0.18% | +0.07% | +0.73% | +0.12% | +0.43% |
| 24 Avg -0.12% | +0.44% | -0.34% | -0.05% | -0.44% | -0.23% | -0.62% | +1.08% | -0.22% | +0.08% | -0.75% | -0.45% | +0.02% |
| 25 Avg -0.13% | +0.64% | -1.43% | +0.27% | +0.63% | +0.07% | -0.78% | +0.41% | -0.48% | +0.29% | -0.65% | -0.50% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg -0.10% | +0.21% | -0.30% | -0.67% | +0.50% | +0.49% | -0.75% | -0.89% | -0.04% | -0.62% | +0.43% | +0.11% | +0.35% |
| 27 Avg -0.17% | -0.87% | -0.76% | -0.01% | -0.08% | +0.26% | -0.16% | -0.60% | -0.12% | +0.25% | +0.17% | -0.53% | +0.45% |
| 28 Avg -0.03% | -0.03% | +0.92% | -0.15% | -0.11% | +0.40% | -0.54% | +0.27% | -0.15% | +0.01% | -0.44% | -0.16% | -0.36% |
| 29 Avg +0.02% | +0.55% | - | -0.15% | -0.79% | -0.32% | +0.60% | +0.37% | +0.53% | -0.94% | +0.23% | +0.26% | -0.15% |
| 30 Avg +0.01% | +0.37% | - | -0.70% | +0.47% | -0.56% | +0.58% | -0.15% | -0.85% | +1.11% | -0.60% | -0.13% | +0.55% |
| 31 Avg -0.13% | -0.58% | - | +0.55% | - | -1.09% | - | -0.66% | +0.45% | - | +0.65% | - | -0.25% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
