Check historical price trends and seasonality for Oats Futures (CBOT) (ZO=F).
Oats Futures (CBOT) (ZO=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +7.98%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -2.98%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Oats futures tend to experience a strong bullish phase from late January, climbing steadily to a peak around July 11, showing an average gain of +8.7%. Following this peak, a bearish trend typically emerges, lasting through early September, bottoming out on September 4 with an average loss of -3.9%. A significant rally then occurs, extending from mid-September through early November, culminating around November 6 with an average gain of +11.4%, followed by a slight pullback before ending the year on December 31 with a gain of +7.9%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Several potential "buy-the-dip" opportunities appear throughout the year. The most prominent occurs in early September, specifically around September 4, after a period of consistent decline. Another potential entry point arises in late July following the peak around July 11, as prices retrace some of their gains. Finally, a minor dip may occur in late November before the end-of-year rally.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to oats futures might involve entering long positions around September 4 to capitalize on the subsequent rally into early November. Another entry point could be considered in late July after the mid-year peak. Investors should be aware of the potential for declines in late summer and manage their positions accordingly.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 349.7500 | 2025-03-16 | 359.5000 | 9.7500 | 2.79 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 352.5000 | 2024-03-15 | 365.7500 | 13.2500 | 3.76 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 305.5000 | 2020-03-15 | 268.5000 | -37.0000 | -12.11 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 295.5000 | 2019-03-16 | 277.0000 | -18.5000 | -6.26 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 250.0000 | 2018-03-16 | 242.2500 | -7.7500 | -3.10 |
| Avg | 310.6500 | 302.6000 | -8.05 | -2.98 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.86% | Feb Total -3.21% | Mar Total -1.48% | Apr Total +2.76% | May Total +3.94% | Jun Total +1.19% | Jul Total -3.57% | Aug Total -4.05% | Sep Total +6.53% | Oct Total +5.27% | Nov Total -1.52% | Dec Total +1.16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.30% | 0.00% | +0.61% | +0.36% | +0.39% | +0.61% | +0.43% | +0.74% | -0.33% | -0.03% | +0.27% | +1.10% | -0.61% |
| 2 Avg 0.00% | +0.09% | -0.01% | -1.11% | +0.67% | -0.14% | -0.29% | +0.27% | +0.19% | -0.25% | +0.22% | -0.25% | +0.61% |
| 3 Avg +0.03% | -0.41% | 0.00% | +0.31% | -0.40% | +0.58% | -0.07% | +0.16% | -0.33% | -0.09% | +0.59% | -0.29% | +0.33% |
| 4 Avg +0.06% | -0.31% | +0.50% | +0.73% | -0.84% | +0.58% | +0.40% | 0.00% | -1.08% | -0.09% | +0.33% | +0.09% | +0.45% |
| 5 Avg -0.12% | -0.51% | +0.10% | -0.15% | -0.08% | +0.18% | -1.38% | +1.04% | -0.12% | +0.28% | +0.19% | +0.68% | -1.66% |
| 6 Avg +0.12% | -0.24% | +0.23% | -0.61% | +0.03% | -0.52% | +1.31% | -0.14% | +0.95% | +0.80% | -0.19% | +0.12% | -0.30% |
| 7 Avg -0.16% | -0.51% | -0.25% | +0.27% | +0.03% | +0.21% | -0.28% | +0.46% | -0.83% | -0.11% | +0.24% | -1.13% | -0.02% |
| 8 Avg +0.18% | +0.70% | 0.00% | +0.66% | +0.34% | +0.43% | -0.08% | +0.44% | +1.45% | +0.02% | +0.21% | -1.50% | -0.55% |
| 9 Avg -0.05% | +0.37% | -0.16% | -0.39% | -0.16% | -0.35% | +0.15% | +0.02% | -0.83% | +0.36% | +0.18% | -0.35% | +0.59% |
| 10 Avg +0.10% | +0.78% | -1.11% | +0.83% | +0.42% | +0.33% | -1.45% | +1.04% | -0.95% | +0.70% | -0.12% | +0.92% | -0.17% |
| 11 Avg +0.17% | -0.15% | -0.12% | +0.20% | +0.69% | -0.55% | +0.55% | +0.57% | +0.08% | -0.11% | +0.81% | -0.02% | +0.09% |
| 12 Avg +0.18% | +0.47% | +0.80% | +0.23% | +0.61% | +0.13% | -0.07% | -0.77% | +0.05% | +0.66% | -0.36% | -0.12% | +0.54% |
| 13 Avg +0.19% | +0.53% | -0.54% | +0.16% | +0.02% | -0.31% | +0.61% | +0.33% | +0.58% | -0.08% | 0.00% | +0.18% | +0.86% |
| 14 Avg +0.01% | +0.25% | -0.37% | -0.58% | -0.03% | -0.82% | +0.05% | -1.44% | +0.29% | +0.43% | +0.14% | +0.87% | +1.33% |
| 15 Avg -0.40% | -0.73% | -0.84% | +0.04% | +0.24% | -0.76% | +0.53% | -4.83% | -0.20% | +1.43% | +0.99% | +0.11% | -0.80% |
| 16 Avg -0.03% | -0.33% | +0.60% | -1.07% | -0.06% | +0.93% | -0.13% | -1.05% | +0.47% | +0.19% | -0.01% | +0.02% | +0.10% |
| 17 Avg +0.13% | +1.26% | +0.05% | +0.06% | +0.30% | -0.26% | -0.62% | +0.22% | +0.22% | +0.15% | -0.14% | -0.08% | +0.43% |
| 18 Avg +0.23% | +1.60% | 0.00% | -0.27% | +0.48% | -0.32% | +0.27% | +1.43% | -0.81% | +0.14% | -0.10% | +0.21% | +0.11% |
| 19 Avg -0.16% | +0.75% | -0.82% | -0.16% | +0.09% | -0.45% | -0.37% | -0.02% | -0.58% | -0.04% | +0.11% | 0.00% | -0.41% |
| 20 Avg +0.13% | -0.07% | +0.20% | +0.45% | +0.51% | +0.11% | -0.69% | +0.66% | +0.51% | +0.50% | +0.72% | +0.03% | -1.37% |
| 21 Avg -0.19% | -0.03% | -0.70% | +0.94% | -0.63% | +0.51% | -1.17% | -0.20% | -0.86% | +0.13% | +0.20% | -0.31% | -0.14% |
| 22 Avg -0.03% | -0.37% | -0.43% | -0.05% | +0.63% | +0.43% | -0.39% | -0.52% | -0.64% | +0.41% | +0.50% | -0.07% | +0.19% |
| 23 Avg -0.04% | -0.09% | +0.38% | +0.06% | -0.47% | +0.15% | -0.38% | +0.06% | +0.55% | -0.05% | +0.39% | -0.91% | -0.10% |
| 24 Avg -0.06% | -0.54% | -0.81% | -0.23% | +0.25% | +0.83% | +0.04% | -0.13% | +0.69% | -0.22% | -0.40% | -0.13% | -0.06% |
| 25 Avg +0.07% | +0.25% | -0.10% | -0.02% | +0.33% | +0.79% | -0.10% | -0.81% | +0.22% | +0.37% | +0.14% | -0.25% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg -0.08% | +0.10% | -0.04% | -0.51% | -0.15% | +0.80% | +0.58% | -0.45% | -0.92% | -0.57% | +0.24% | -0.32% | +0.24% |
| 27 Avg -0.01% | -0.52% | -0.85% | -0.15% | -0.67% | +0.62% | +1.27% | -0.22% | -0.27% | +0.24% | +0.80% | -1.12% | +0.75% |
| 28 Avg +0.20% | +0.04% | +0.48% | -0.28% | +0.78% | +0.74% | +0.66% | +0.36% | +0.13% | +0.27% | -0.94% | -0.11% | +0.25% |
| 29 Avg +0.22% | +0.27% | - | -0.48% | +0.20% | -0.03% | +0.49% | -0.02% | +1.29% | +0.12% | +0.39% | +0.70% | -0.47% |
| 30 Avg -0.22% | -0.04% | - | -0.63% | -0.73% | -0.01% | +1.33% | -0.76% | -2.84% | +0.97% | -0.51% | +0.42% | +0.42% |
| 31 Avg +0.06% | +0.26% | - | -0.11% | - | -0.49% | - | -0.03% | -0.15% | - | +0.40% | - | +0.53% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
