Check historical price trends and seasonality for Soybean Oil Futures (CBOT) (ZL=F).
Soybean Oil Futures (CBOT) (ZL=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +6.51%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -4.71%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Soybean oil futures exhibit a generally positive seasonal trend throughout the year. The strongest bullish phase appears to be in November, peaking around November 11 with an average gain of +10.2%. The market also shows strength towards the end of the year, with a notable increase around December 31, averaging +6.5%. The data suggests a consistent upward bias from January through July, followed by a slight pullback before the significant rally in November.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Potential buying opportunities may arise during pullbacks in the late summer and early fall. Specifically, the period between September and October shows a slight dip before the strong November rally. Another potential dip occurs in late December, before the end-of-year push around December 31. These pullbacks could be viewed as strategic entry points before the historically stronger periods.
3) Summary:
A seasonal investment strategy for soybean oil futures could involve establishing long positions during the late summer or early fall, anticipating the significant rally in November. Holding through the end of the year to capture the gains around December 31 could also be considered. However, it's crucial to monitor market conditions and price action, as seasonality represents an average tendency and not a guaranteed outcome.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 45.0300 | 2025-03-16 | 41.0000 | -4.0300 | -8.95 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 47.2500 | 2024-03-15 | 49.4200 | 2.1700 | 4.59 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 33.0300 | 2020-03-15 | 26.1100 | -6.9200 | -20.95 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 28.2300 | 2019-03-16 | 29.4300 | 1.2000 | 4.25 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 32.7900 | 2018-03-16 | 31.9800 | -0.8100 | -2.47 |
| Avg | 37.2660 | 35.5880 | -1.68 | -4.71 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.17% | Feb Total +0.51% | Mar Total -0.14% | Apr Total +2.52% | May Total -1.85% | Jun Total +3.57% | Jul Total +1.74% | Aug Total +0.50% | Sep Total -2.69% | Oct Total +2.66% | Nov Total +0.63% | Dec Total -1.62% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.15% | +0.60% | +0.45% | +0.16% | +0.82% | -0.04% | -0.93% | -0.46% | -0.14% | +0.25% | -0.97% |
| 2 Avg +0.26% | +0.33% | -0.32% | +0.44% | +0.56% | -0.84% | +1.15% | +0.43% | -0.32% | +0.96% | +0.52% | +0.25% | -0.10% |
| 3 Avg +0.08% | +0.08% | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.03% | +0.31% | -0.47% | +0.74% | -0.09% | -0.38% | +0.63% | -0.06% | +0.64% |
| 4 Avg +0.05% | +0.19% | +0.19% | +0.13% | -0.40% | +0.15% | +0.20% | 0.00% | +0.28% | -0.29% | -0.05% | +0.13% | +0.10% |
| 5 Avg -0.04% | +0.24% | +0.19% | +0.05% | +0.14% | +0.08% | -0.13% | -0.66% | -0.05% | -0.22% | +0.42% | -0.11% | -0.39% |
| 6 Avg +0.07% | -0.11% | +0.77% | -0.25% | +0.01% | +0.23% | +0.98% | -0.85% | -0.08% | -0.76% | +0.20% | +0.63% | +0.05% |
| 7 Avg +0.11% | +0.17% | +0.23% | -0.05% | +0.09% | +0.15% | -0.52% | +0.54% | +0.29% | -0.72% | +0.71% | +0.24% | +0.13% |
| 8 Avg +0.06% | -0.13% | -0.01% | +0.18% | -0.11% | -0.05% | +1.06% | +0.18% | +0.49% | +0.08% | -0.29% | +0.09% | -0.74% |
| 9 Avg -0.06% | +0.71% | -0.18% | -0.50% | +0.24% | -0.61% | +0.49% | -1.01% | +0.91% | -0.20% | -0.14% | -0.21% | -0.24% |
| 10 Avg +0.02% | +0.11% | +0.06% | -0.34% | +0.07% | +0.41% | -0.45% | +0.64% | -0.16% | -0.08% | -0.65% | +0.73% | -0.13% |
| 11 Avg +0.05% | -0.02% | +0.28% | +0.51% | -0.38% | +0.23% | -0.66% | +0.27% | -0.06% | +0.25% | -0.33% | +0.36% | +0.17% |
| 12 Avg -0.05% | +0.06% | +0.07% | +0.02% | -0.29% | +0.01% | -0.33% | -0.03% | +0.14% | +0.26% | -0.22% | -0.63% | +0.39% |
| 13 Avg +0.03% | -0.34% | -0.28% | -0.15% | +0.44% | +0.15% | +0.90% | -0.13% | -0.41% | -0.11% | +0.85% | -0.57% | +0.04% |
| 14 Avg -0.17% | +0.28% | -0.20% | -0.36% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.38% | +0.03% | -0.68% | -0.20% | +0.04% | -0.28% | -0.28% |
| 15 Avg +0.06% | -0.28% | -0.03% | -0.27% | +0.03% | +0.28% | +0.21% | +0.04% | -0.16% | +0.03% | +0.72% | +0.45% | -0.25% |
| 16 Avg -0.03% | -0.50% | +0.26% | -0.15% | -0.05% | -0.72% | +0.35% | +0.26% | +0.27% | +0.62% | -0.12% | -0.64% | +0.02% |
| 17 Avg +0.03% | +0.59% | -0.26% | +0.61% | +0.38% | +0.06% | -0.79% | -0.18% | +0.22% | -0.27% | +0.12% | -0.08% | -0.02% |
| 18 Avg +0.08% | +0.19% | +0.33% | -0.63% | +0.25% | -0.23% | +0.48% | +0.56% | +0.09% | -0.30% | -0.22% | +0.74% | -0.26% |
| 19 Avg -0.02% | +0.05% | -0.33% | +0.04% | +0.39% | -0.41% | -0.15% | -0.03% | -0.28% | +0.27% | +0.14% | -0.35% | +0.39% |
| 20 Avg +0.09% | +0.21% | +0.27% | +0.46% | +0.25% | +0.32% | -0.22% | +0.30% | -0.64% | +0.06% | +0.67% | -0.32% | -0.30% |
| 21 Avg -0.06% | +0.11% | +0.33% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.16% | -0.61% | -0.06% | +0.72% | -0.59% | -0.14% | +0.15% | -0.31% |
| 22 Avg +0.07% | -0.04% | +0.37% | -0.03% | +0.69% | +0.08% | -0.37% | -0.21% | -0.39% | +0.42% | +0.39% | +0.10% | -0.15% |
| 23 Avg +0.04% | +0.21% | -0.06% | -0.35% | -0.13% | -0.72% | +0.01% | +0.09% | +0.88% | -0.59% | -0.14% | +0.87% | +0.41% |
| 24 Avg -0.03% | -0.48% | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.29% | -0.11% | -0.37% | +0.48% | +0.15% | +0.42% | +0.39% | -0.43% | +0.15% |
| 25 Avg -0.20% | -0.01% | -0.77% | +0.04% | -0.50% | +0.15% | -0.97% | -0.28% | +0.12% | -0.09% | +0.16% | -0.32% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg 0.00% | +0.65% | +0.12% | -0.60% | +0.88% | +0.12% | +0.35% | -0.52% | +0.02% | -0.66% | -0.07% | -0.19% | -0.13% |
| 27 Avg +0.12% | -0.05% | -0.43% | +0.72% | -0.07% | +0.36% | +0.61% | -0.03% | +0.11% | -0.12% | -0.27% | -0.16% | +0.76% |
| 28 Avg +0.18% | +0.22% | +0.44% | +0.18% | +0.86% | -0.13% | +0.64% | +0.82% | +0.03% | -0.49% | -0.77% | +0.97% | -0.66% |
| 29 Avg +0.10% | -0.29% | - | +0.07% | -0.81% | +0.08% | +0.76% | +0.83% | +0.15% | +0.02% | -0.06% | -0.09% | +0.48% |
| 30 Avg -0.15% | -0.09% | - | -0.71% | +0.04% | -0.83% | +0.96% | -0.39% | -0.18% | +0.45% | +0.31% | -0.89% | -0.32% |
| 31 Avg +0.01% | +0.11% | - | +0.43% | - | -0.35% | - | -0.04% | +0.05% | - | +0.01% | - | -0.11% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
