Check historical price trends and seasonality for USDZAR (USDZAR=X).
USDZAR (USDZAR=X) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +1.76%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Feb 15 for 30 days) is +0.44%.
5 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 62.50%.
1) Overview:
The USDZAR pair tends to exhibit a bearish phase in January, particularly around January 17, with an average decline of -1.4%. A strong bullish trend typically emerges from March, extending through October. This bullish phase culminates around October 9, showing an average increase of +4.9%. The pair then experiences a period of consolidation, with a slight positive tendency towards the end of the year, reaching +1.0% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
A potential buying opportunity arises in January, especially around January 17, due to the historically observed dip of -1.4%. This pullback could be attributed to early-year profit-taking. Another possible entry point could be in late February, as the pair tends to experience a period of negative movement during this time. The pair typically rebounds strongly from March onwards, making these dips attractive for long positions.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach to USDZAR involves considering short positions in January and accumulating long positions during the dip around January 17. Given the strong bullish tendency from March through October, this period presents a favorable window for long-term investments. Investors should monitor macroeconomic factors and global events that could influence the pair's trajectory, alongside these seasonal trends.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-02-15 | 19.0300 | 2024-03-15 | 18.7300 | -0.3000 | -1.58 |
| 2023 | 2023-02-15 | 17.8600 | 2023-03-16 | 18.3600 | 0.5000 | 2.80 |
| 2022 | 2022-02-15 | 15.0800 | 2022-03-16 | 15.0900 | 0.0100 | 0.07 |
| 2021 | 2021-02-15 | 14.5400 | 2021-03-16 | 14.8500 | 0.3100 | 2.13 |
| 2019 | 2019-02-15 | 14.1100 | 2019-03-16 | 14.5100 | 0.4000 | 2.83 |
| 2018 | 2018-02-15 | 11.7200 | 2018-03-16 | 11.9000 | 0.1800 | 1.54 |
| 2017 | 2017-02-15 | 13.0800 | 2017-03-16 | 12.8100 | -0.2700 | -2.06 |
| 2016 | 2016-02-15 | 15.8700 | 2016-03-15 | 15.5200 | -0.3500 | -2.21 |
| Avg | 15.1613 | 15.2213 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.41% | Feb Total +0.38% | Mar Total +0.95% | Apr Total +0.72% | May Total +0.73% | Jun Total -0.03% | Jul Total -1.36% | Aug Total +2.58% | Sep Total +0.21% | Oct Total +0.60% | Nov Total -1.20% | Dec Total -1.54% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.06% | 0.00% | -0.62% | +0.46% | -0.54% | +0.39% | +0.16% | -0.31% | +0.39% | +0.41% | -0.03% | +0.05% | +0.33% |
| 2 Avg +0.01% | +0.40% | -0.37% | -0.13% | +0.14% | +0.05% | -0.24% | +0.07% | +0.50% | -0.28% | +0.04% | -0.24% | +0.16% |
| 3 Avg +0.16% | +0.31% | +0.57% | -0.09% | +0.36% | +0.48% | -0.58% | +0.20% | +0.59% | +0.20% | +0.18% | -0.26% | -0.02% |
| 4 Avg -0.13% | +0.03% | -0.46% | +0.06% | +0.08% | +0.08% | -0.31% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.22% | -0.35% | -0.20% |
| 5 Avg 0.00% | -0.13% | +0.32% | +0.02% | +0.01% | -0.07% | +0.01% | -0.37% | -0.07% | +0.24% | +0.39% | -0.17% | -0.24% |
| 6 Avg +0.14% | +0.49% | +0.12% | -0.14% | +1.00% | +0.13% | -0.12% | +0.45% | +0.22% | -0.34% | +0.20% | -0.26% | -0.04% |
| 7 Avg -0.05% | -0.33% | +0.20% | -0.18% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.23% | +0.38% | -0.02% | -0.44% | +0.17% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 8 Avg +0.05% | +0.48% | +0.35% | +0.20% | +0.12% | -0.17% | +0.15% | +0.31% | +0.06% | +0.04% | -0.03% | -0.72% | -0.23% |
| 9 Avg +0.09% | +0.13% | +0.13% | +0.78% | +0.07% | +0.04% | -0.23% | -0.36% | +0.15% | +0.26% | +0.15% | -0.05% | -0.03% |
| 10 Avg -0.02% | -0.28% | -0.04% | -0.24% | -0.29% | +0.29% | +0.14% | -0.20% | +0.37% | -0.20% | -0.27% | +0.31% | +0.18% |
| 11 Avg -0.02% | +0.53% | -0.24% | -0.04% | +0.05% | -0.37% | -0.26% | -0.34% | -0.42% | +0.10% | -0.24% | +0.81% | +0.15% |
| 12 Avg -0.01% | +0.08% | -0.18% | -0.30% | -0.31% | -0.02% | +0.21% | +0.06% | +0.09% | -0.20% | +0.14% | +0.28% | +0.08% |
| 13 Avg -0.05% | -0.56% | -0.05% | +0.03% | -0.20% | +0.02% | +0.59% | -0.59% | +0.37% | -0.35% | +0.14% | +0.33% | -0.31% |
| 14 Avg -0.04% | +0.06% | +0.30% | -0.24% | -0.53% | +0.07% | +0.21% | +0.25% | -0.12% | +0.15% | -0.41% | +0.09% | -0.36% |
| 15 Avg -0.29% | -1.60% | -0.42% | +0.47% | +0.03% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.30% | +0.16% | +0.16% | +0.11% | -2.08% | +0.09% |
| 16 Avg +0.06% | +1.33% | -0.35% | +0.04% | +0.27% | +0.09% | -0.10% | +0.03% | +0.06% | -0.13% | -0.21% | -0.46% | +0.11% |
| 17 Avg -0.11% | -1.45% | +0.20% | -0.17% | -0.16% | -0.06% | +0.32% | -0.09% | +0.12% | +0.10% | -0.10% | +0.05% | -0.03% |
| 18 Avg +0.17% | +0.37% | -0.19% | -0.67% | +0.01% | +0.28% | +0.11% | +0.09% | +0.27% | -0.02% | -0.30% | +2.37% | -0.27% |
| 19 Avg +0.04% | -0.06% | -0.09% | +0.62% | -0.02% | +0.26% | -0.06% | -0.34% | +0.03% | +0.02% | +0.20% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 20 Avg +0.19% | +1.95% | +0.12% | +0.22% | +0.16% | -0.03% | -0.22% | +0.32% | +0.24% | -0.12% | -0.08% | -0.08% | -0.18% |
| 21 Avg -0.12% | -0.18% | +0.06% | -0.29% | -0.24% | -0.31% | +0.22% | +0.08% | -0.34% | -0.20% | -0.15% | +0.10% | -0.22% |
| 22 Avg -0.03% | -0.07% | +0.19% | -0.01% | +0.32% | -0.38% | -0.30% | -0.30% | +0.01% | +0.15% | +0.22% | -0.05% | -0.10% |
| 23 Avg -0.07% | +0.01% | -0.19% | -0.17% | +0.21% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.02% | +0.02% | -0.09% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.08% |
| 24 Avg -0.02% | -0.41% | -0.14% | +0.10% | +0.31% | -0.03% | -0.20% | +0.19% | 0.00% | +0.05% | -0.10% | -0.17% | +0.15% |
| 25 Avg +0.02% | -0.20% | +0.34% | +0.10% | +0.47% | -0.33% | 0.00% | -0.32% | +0.03% | -0.24% | +0.52% | -0.15% | -0.03% |
| 26 Avg +0.11% | +0.13% | +0.37% | -0.40% | +0.18% | +0.26% | +0.08% | +0.09% | -0.17% | +0.55% | +0.06% | +0.20% | -0.08% |
| 27 Avg +0.04% | -0.03% | +0.12% | +0.07% | +0.13% | -0.38% | +0.23% | +0.04% | -0.17% | +0.18% | -0.02% | +0.30% | -0.02% |
| 28 Avg +0.09% | +0.44% | +0.34% | +0.46% | -0.05% | +0.03% | +0.53% | -0.09% | -0.12% | +0.05% | +0.14% | -0.34% | -0.32% |
| 29 Avg -0.02% | -0.35% | - | +0.26% | -0.45% | +0.10% | +0.09% | +0.04% | +0.35% | -0.05% | +0.05% | -0.52% | +0.25% |
| 30 Avg -0.02% | +0.12% | - | +0.12% | -0.34% | +0.30% | -0.07% | -0.16% | -0.23% | +0.24% | -0.06% | +0.03% | -0.16% |
| 31 Avg +0.13% | +0.18% | - | +0.02% | - | +0.24% | - | +0.04% | +0.20% | - | +0.28% | - | -0.07% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
