Check historical price trends and seasonality for USDNOK (USDNOK=X).
USDNOK (USDNOK=X) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +3.72%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Feb 4 for 30 days) is +0.45%.
4 wins 2 losses with a win rate of 66.67%.
1) Overview:
USDNOK exhibits a clear seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. The currency pair tends to weaken in the beginning of the year, with a notable dip of -3.3% on January 1. A strong bullish phase begins around September, culminating in a peak around November 3 with an average gain of +3.2%. The year typically concludes with gains, ending on December 31 with an average increase of +1.5%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period occurs in January, presenting a potential buying opportunity. The weakness in January, with a -3.3% dip on January 1, could be attributed to year-end profit-taking or seasonal portfolio adjustments. Another, albeit smaller, dip occurs around March 20-22, with a -2.3% to -2.4% drop, providing another chance to buy before the currency pair begins its upward trajectory towards the end of the year.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach to USDNOK would involve initiating long positions during the January dip, capitalizing on the subsequent rally that typically begins around September and peaks in early November. Consider adding to positions during the smaller pullback in late March. Investors should be aware of the potential for increased volatility during these periods and manage their risk accordingly.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-02-04 | 11.3425 | 2025-03-05 | 11.0894 | -0.2531 | -2.23 |
| 2022 | 2022-02-04 | 8.7175 | 2022-03-05 | 8.9052 | 0.1877 | 2.15 |
| 2021 | 2021-02-04 | 8.5771 | 2021-03-05 | 8.5796 | 0.0025 | 0.03 |
| 2020 | 2020-02-04 | 9.2841 | 2020-03-04 | 9.2724 | -0.0117 | -0.13 |
| 2019 | 2019-02-04 | 8.4332 | 2019-03-05 | 8.6542 | 0.2210 | 2.62 |
| 2016 | 2016-02-04 | 8.5636 | 2016-03-04 | 8.5833 | 0.0197 | 0.23 |
| Avg | 9.1530 | 9.1807 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.65% | Feb Total +0.87% | Mar Total +1.95% | Apr Total +0.57% | May Total +0.13% | Jun Total +0.06% | Jul Total -0.81% | Aug Total -0.26% | Sep Total +1.30% | Oct Total +1.14% | Nov Total +0.09% | Dec Total -0.96% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.05% | 0.00% | -0.01% | +0.31% | +0.10% | +0.18% | -0.25% | -0.04% | -0.16% | +0.07% | -0.04% | +0.34% | +0.11% |
| 2 Avg +0.04% | +0.79% | -0.39% | -0.09% | +0.08% | +0.01% | +0.07% | -0.08% | +0.33% | +0.17% | +0.01% | -0.23% | -0.20% |
| 3 Avg +0.11% | +0.38% | +0.37% | -0.11% | -0.13% | +0.34% | -0.45% | -0.08% | +0.28% | +0.14% | +0.38% | +0.26% | -0.01% |
| 4 Avg -0.02% | +1.32% | -0.33% | -0.11% | -0.45% | +0.17% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.13% | +0.21% | -0.25% | -0.26% | -0.30% |
| 5 Avg -0.03% | -0.11% | +0.16% | +0.05% | +0.06% | -0.25% | -0.19% | -0.28% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.16% | +0.20% | +0.29% |
| 6 Avg +0.03% | -0.01% | +0.32% | -0.19% | +0.38% | +0.13% | -0.06% | +0.32% | -0.14% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.26% | +0.10% |
| 7 Avg +0.02% | -0.18% | +0.19% | -0.09% | +0.28% | -0.20% | -0.12% | +0.21% | -0.18% | -0.02% | +0.50% | -0.25% | +0.13% |
| 8 Avg +0.03% | -0.10% | +0.18% | +0.34% | +0.08% | -0.01% | -0.18% | +0.29% | +0.15% | -0.11% | +0.01% | -0.12% | -0.22% |
| 9 Avg +0.05% | +0.04% | +0.07% | +0.35% | -0.19% | +0.21% | -0.12% | -0.06% | +0.13% | +0.29% | -0.01% | -0.08% | +0.01% |
| 10 Avg +0.01% | -0.20% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.19% | +0.04% | +0.27% | -0.01% | +0.10% | -0.12% | +0.06% | +0.20% | +0.20% |
| 11 Avg -0.07% | +0.18% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.16% | -0.11% | +0.05% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.07% | -0.24% | +0.02% | 0.00% |
| 12 Avg +0.00% | -0.14% | +0.08% | -0.18% | +0.14% | +0.10% | +0.13% | -0.16% | -0.25% | -0.08% | +0.11% | +0.13% | +0.14% |
| 13 Avg -0.04% | -0.37% | -0.12% | +0.36% | -0.24% | +0.09% | +0.16% | -0.25% | -0.01% | -0.24% | +0.15% | +0.23% | -0.21% |
| 14 Avg -0.07% | +0.05% | +0.04% | -0.22% | -0.11% | -0.08% | +0.07% | -0.06% | -0.12% | +0.31% | -0.27% | -0.11% | -0.29% |
| 15 Avg +0.03% | -0.19% | -0.10% | +0.26% | -0.13% | 0.00% | +0.33% | -0.18% | +0.32% | -0.02% | +0.09% | +0.08% | -0.09% |
| 16 Avg 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.11% | +0.16% | +0.34% | -0.14% | -0.34% | +0.19% | +0.23% | -0.18% | -0.01% | -0.19% | +0.09% |
| 17 Avg +0.07% | +0.23% | +0.04% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.17% | +0.36% | +0.05% | +0.02% | +0.07% | +0.25% | +0.16% | +0.04% |
| 18 Avg +0.04% | +0.16% | -0.04% | -0.34% | +0.22% | +0.12% | +0.14% | +0.09% | +0.12% | -0.07% | -0.06% | +0.10% | +0.06% |
| 19 Avg +0.10% | +0.23% | +0.08% | +0.59% | -0.08% | +0.31% | -0.06% | -0.14% | -0.10% | +0.15% | +0.16% | -0.07% | +0.09% |
| 20 Avg -0.26% | -0.21% | -0.02% | -2.99% | -0.02% | -0.12% | +0.19% | +0.01% | +0.12% | -0.06% | -0.10% | +0.05% | -0.01% |
| 21 Avg +0.05% | -0.01% | +0.14% | -0.06% | +0.18% | -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.12% | +0.32% | -0.04% | +0.26% | +0.19% |
| 22 Avg -0.07% | -0.15% | +0.12% | -0.06% | +0.12% | -0.30% | -0.11% | -0.23% | +0.01% | +0.07% | -0.03% | +0.01% | -0.34% |
| 23 Avg +0.44% | -0.04% | +0.05% | +5.12% | +0.27% | +0.04% | -0.15% | -0.01% | +0.03% | -0.01% | +0.15% | -0.17% | -0.02% |
| 24 Avg -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.10% | +0.09% | -0.08% | +0.27% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.10% |
| 25 Avg -0.05% | +0.04% | +0.04% | -0.29% | +0.17% | -0.09% | +0.08% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.06% | +0.15% | -0.18% | -0.29% |
| 26 Avg +0.06% | -0.02% | +0.12% | -0.27% | +0.33% | +0.07% | +0.25% | -0.10% | -0.12% | +0.51% | -0.02% | +0.13% | -0.12% |
| 27 Avg -0.10% | +0.02% | +0.08% | -0.28% | +0.05% | -0.36% | +0.19% | -0.03% | -0.10% | +0.26% | +0.01% | -0.03% | -1.00% |
| 28 Avg +0.09% | +0.11% | +0.07% | +0.10% | -0.07% | -0.02% | +0.02% | -0.12% | -0.23% | +0.20% | +0.16% | -0.16% | +1.05% |
| 29 Avg +0.03% | -0.21% | - | +0.15% | -0.15% | +0.10% | -0.01% | +0.07% | +0.38% | -0.34% | +0.10% | +0.17% | +0.13% |
| 30 Avg -0.04% | +0.09% | - | -0.03% | -0.13% | +0.24% | -0.04% | -0.17% | -0.31% | +0.05% | +0.20% | -0.11% | -0.27% |
| 31 Avg -0.02% | +0.13% | - | -0.13% | - | -0.10% | - | +0.04% | +0.06% | - | -0.01% | - | -0.12% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
