USDMXN (USDMXN=X) Anomalies

USDMXN (USDMXN=X) Anomaly Analysis

1) Overview:

The USDMXN pair tends to exhibit a bearish trend from early January, reaching its lowest point around July 18 with a significant drop of -1.6%. A bullish phase then begins, gaining momentum through the fall, peaking around November 14 with a notable increase of +2.3%. This upward trend generally sustains through the end of the year, with a final positive movement of +1.0% on December 31.

2) Buy-the-dip points:

Several opportunities to buy the dip present themselves throughout the year. The most pronounced dip occurs in July, bottoming out around July 18 (-1.6%), which could be considered a prime buying opportunity in anticipation of the subsequent bullish trend. Further smaller pullbacks occur in February, late April, and late May, providing additional, albeit less pronounced, entry points before the larger rally that starts in the fall. These dips are likely driven by temporary market corrections or profit-taking, making them potentially attractive for long-term investors.

3) Summary:

Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach to USDMXN would involve entering long positions during the pronounced dip around July 18, capitalizing on the subsequent bullish trend that peaks around November 14. Consider scaling into the position during the February, late April, and late May pullbacks to improve the average entry price. It is important to note that seasonality is just one factor, and other fundamental and technical analyses should be considered before making any investment decisions.