Check historical price trends and seasonality for USDJPY (USDJPY=X).
USDJPY (USDJPY=X) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +3.03%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Feb 5 for 60 days) is -0.77%.
3 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 42.86%.
1) Overview:
USDJPY exhibits a generally bearish tendency from January through March, bottoming out around March 10 with a -1.0% average change. A bullish phase begins in late April, gaining momentum through June and July, peaking in October and November. The strongest bullish period occurs from late September through November 1, reaching +3.8%. The pair then experiences a slight decline throughout December, ending the year on December 31 at +2.8%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
A significant pullback opportunity appears in early to mid-March, with the lowest point around March 10, showing a -1.0% average decline. This bearish period, likely driven by early-year market adjustments, presents a potential buying opportunity in anticipation of the bullish trend that begins in late April. Another minor dip occurs in early August, potentially offering a smaller buying opportunity before the strong rally from September onwards.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, consider initiating long positions in USDJPY around mid-March to capitalize on the subsequent bullish trend. Be aware of the strong positive seasonality in late October and early November, potentially adding to positions before November 1. Monitor market conditions and economic indicators to confirm the validity of these seasonal trends before making investment decisions.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-02-05 | 154.1330 | 2025-04-05 | 146.2310 | -7.9020 | -5.13 |
| 2024 | 2024-02-05 | 148.5010 | 2024-04-04 | 151.5810 | 3.0800 | 2.07 |
| 2021 | 2021-02-05 | 105.5720 | 2021-04-05 | 110.6770 | 5.1050 | 4.84 |
| 2020 | 2020-02-05 | 109.4470 | 2020-04-04 | 108.0010 | -1.4460 | -1.32 |
| 2019 | 2019-02-05 | 109.9610 | 2019-04-05 | 111.6580 | 1.6970 | 1.54 |
| 2018 | 2018-02-05 | 110.0350 | 2018-04-05 | 106.7740 | -3.2610 | -2.96 |
| 2016 | 2016-02-05 | 116.8660 | 2016-04-04 | 111.7220 | -5.1440 | -4.40 |
| Avg | 122.0736 | 120.9491 | -1.12 | -0.77 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.51% | Feb Total +0.18% | Mar Total +0.34% | Apr Total +0.23% | May Total +0.54% | Jun Total +0.75% | Jul Total -0.80% | Aug Total -0.20% | Sep Total +1.18% | Oct Total +1.76% | Nov Total -0.01% | Dec Total -0.30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.06% | 0.00% | +0.13% | -0.12% | +0.03% | +0.40% | -0.02% | +0.08% | -0.20% | +0.09% | +0.01% | +0.18% | +0.17% |
| 2 Avg -0.07% | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.01% | +0.02% | +0.02% | +0.01% | -0.24% | +0.12% | -0.04% | -0.15% | -0.37% |
| 3 Avg -0.01% | -0.15% | -0.10% | +0.19% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.13% | -0.02% | +0.15% | +0.16% | +0.21% | -0.07% | 0.00% |
| 4 Avg -0.06% | +0.19% | -0.03% | -0.14% | -0.17% | -0.18% | +0.17% | +0.05% | -0.30% | -0.17% | -0.01% | +0.04% | -0.23% |
| 5 Avg -0.02% | +0.16% | +0.20% | +0.13% | -0.03% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.46% | +0.09% | -0.02% | +0.01% | -0.05% |
| 6 Avg -0.03% | -0.20% | +0.10% | -0.25% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.03% | +0.30% | -0.11% | +0.18% |
| 7 Avg +0.02% | +0.09% | -0.08% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.02% | +0.07% | -0.07% | +0.02% | +0.01% | +0.23% | +0.11% | +0.06% |
| 8 Avg +0.06% | +0.02% | -0.13% | +0.12% | +0.07% | +0.13% | +0.07% | +0.10% | +0.37% | +0.03% | +0.15% | -0.02% | -0.19% |
| 9 Avg 0.00% | +0.13% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.17% | +0.26% | -0.02% | -0.02% | +0.08% | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.01% | +0.09% |
| 10 Avg +0.06% | -0.17% | +0.06% | -0.07% | +0.08% | +0.13% | +0.05% | -0.01% | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.01% | +0.33% | +0.13% |
| 11 Avg -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.08% | +0.08% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.05% | +0.08% | -0.11% | +0.11% |
| 12 Avg +0.06% | -0.09% | +0.09% | +0.10% | +0.04% | -0.09% | +0.12% | +0.11% | +0.05% | +0.10% | +0.08% | +0.03% | +0.21% |
| 13 Avg 0.00% | -0.33% | +0.16% | -0.12% | -0.05% | +0.20% | -0.13% | +0.05% | -0.04% | -0.04% | +0.11% | +0.10% | +0.07% |
| 14 Avg 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.05% | +0.07% | -0.07% | -0.11% | +0.01% | +0.12% | +0.10% | +0.32% | +0.10% | -0.11% | -0.35% |
| 15 Avg +0.08% | +0.07% | +0.08% | +0.25% | +0.01% | +0.13% | +0.11% | +0.12% | +0.13% | -0.18% | 0.00% | +0.09% | +0.13% |
| 16 Avg 0.00% | -0.20% | +0.06% | -0.06% | +0.10% | -0.10% | +0.13% | -0.01% | +0.08% | -0.19% | -0.11% | +0.02% | +0.26% |
| 17 Avg +0.00% | +0.12% | -0.09% | +0.03% | -0.02% | +0.04% | -0.08% | -0.02% | -0.05% | -0.04% | +0.16% | -0.01% | -0.03% |
| 18 Avg 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.08% | +0.02% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.14% | +0.20% | +0.11% | +0.07% | -0.04% |
| 19 Avg +0.05% | +0.17% | -0.04% | +0.06% | +0.10% | +0.05% | +0.07% | +0.06% | +0.03% | +0.20% | +0.05% | -0.08% | -0.05% |
| 20 Avg +0.09% | +0.08% | +0.11% | +0.20% | +0.19% | +0.08% | +0.25% | -0.06% | -0.06% | +0.01% | +0.05% | -0.09% | +0.37% |
| 21 Avg -0.06% | -0.12% | +0.05% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.16% | +0.18% | -0.26% | +0.07% | +0.02% | +0.08% | -0.37% |
| 22 Avg +0.00% | +0.04% | +0.01% | +0.09% | -0.09% | -0.11% | +0.15% | -0.24% | +0.27% | -0.12% | +0.06% | +0.03% | -0.07% |
| 23 Avg +0.03% | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.12% | +0.19% | +0.08% | +0.17% | -0.16% | +0.16% | +0.02% | +0.20% | +0.02% | -0.09% |
| 24 Avg -0.03% | -0.10% | -0.21% | +0.02% | +0.15% | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.13% | +0.04% | -0.11% | +0.07% | +0.01% |
| 25 Avg +0.06% | +0.06% | +0.12% | +0.18% | +0.21% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.10% | +0.14% | +0.08% | +0.06% | +0.06% | -0.04% |
| 26 Avg -0.01% | -0.12% | +0.08% | -0.05% | +0.02% | +0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.24% | +0.32% | -0.08% | -0.05% | +0.01% |
| 27 Avg +0.01% | +0.12% | +0.04% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.22% | +0.07% | +0.13% | +0.05% | -0.01% | +0.11% |
| 28 Avg +0.05% | +0.05% | +0.12% | +0.10% | +0.24% | +0.23% | +0.06% | -0.22% | +0.01% | +0.19% | +0.07% | -0.20% | 0.00% |
| 29 Avg +0.02% | +0.03% | - | +0.34% | -0.14% | +0.10% | +0.19% | -0.08% | +0.18% | -0.01% | -0.10% | -0.30% | +0.02% |
| 30 Avg -0.03% | -0.02% | - | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.11% | +0.06% | -0.07% | +0.23% | -0.11% | +0.05% | +0.08% | -0.18% |
| 31 Avg -0.04% | -0.19% | - | 0.00% | - | -0.05% | - | +0.01% | +0.02% | - | +0.07% | - | -0.16% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
