Check historical price trends and seasonality for USDCNY (USDCNY=X).
USDCNY (USDCNY=X) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +1.01%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is +0.45%.
4 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 57.14%.
1) Overview:
The USDCNY pair tends to exhibit a bearish trend early in the year, reaching a low around February 1 with a -1.4% average change. From May, the pair enters a bullish phase that extends through October. This bullish trend culminates around October 26, showing an average increase of +2.0%. The pair then consolidates at a high level until the end of the year, with a slight increase of +0.9% on December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period occurs in January, bottoming out around February 1, presenting a potential buying opportunity before the bullish trend begins in May. This dip, averaging -1.4%, could be attributed to early year market adjustments. Another minor pullback occurs in early September, offering a smaller buying opportunity before the pair reaches its peak in late October.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, consider entering a long position in USDCNY around February 1 to capitalize on the subsequent bullish trend that peaks around October 26. Be aware of potential minor pullbacks in early September. Manage risk by setting appropriate stop-loss levels and consider taking profits as the pair approaches its seasonal high in late October or holding through year-end to capture the +0.9% increase on December 31.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 7.3301 | 2025-03-16 | 7.2371 | -0.0930 | -1.27 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 7.0970 | 2024-03-15 | 7.1922 | 0.0952 | 1.34 |
| 2023 | 2023-01-16 | 6.7018 | 2023-03-16 | 6.9059 | 0.2041 | 3.05 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 6.8898 | 2020-03-15 | 7.0286 | 0.1388 | 2.01 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 6.7510 | 2019-03-16 | 6.7220 | -0.0290 | -0.43 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 6.4352 | 2018-03-16 | 6.3209 | -0.1143 | -1.78 |
| 2017 | 2017-01-16 | 6.8988 | 2017-03-16 | 6.9136 | 0.0148 | 0.21 |
| Avg | 6.8720 | 6.9029 | 0.03 | 0.45 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -1.12% | Feb Total +0.50% | Mar Total +0.23% | Apr Total +0.45% | May Total +0.60% | Jun Total +0.62% | Jul Total +0.01% | Aug Total +0.30% | Sep Total +0.21% | Oct Total +0.24% | Nov Total -0.47% | Dec Total -0.58% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.05% | 0.00% | -0.08% | +0.05% | -0.15% | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.05% | +0.07% | -0.16% |
| 2 Avg -0.03% | -0.10% | +0.05% | -0.07% | +0.06% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.00% | +0.21% | -0.01% | -0.18% | -0.23% | -0.08% |
| 3 Avg +0.01% | -0.04% | -0.02% | +0.10% | -0.02% | +0.05% | -0.05% | +0.07% | -0.04% | +0.06% | -0.03% | +0.01% | +0.07% |
| 4 Avg +0.03% | +0.09% | +0.20% | -0.06% | +0.09% | +0.02% | +0.07% | +0.02% | 0.00% | -0.21% | +0.08% | +0.12% | -0.09% |
| 5 Avg -0.03% | -0.13% | 0.00% | -0.02% | +0.05% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.12% | +0.14% | +0.01% | -0.20% | -0.04% |
| 6 Avg +0.01% | -0.06% | +0.09% | -0.07% | +0.02% | +0.08% | -0.05% | +0.09% | +0.05% | +0.05% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.09% |
| 7 Avg 0.00% | +0.12% | +0.03% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.04% | +0.10% | +0.03% | -0.04% | -0.17% | +0.07% |
| 8 Avg +0.02% | -0.02% | 0.00% | +0.14% | -0.05% | +0.01% | +0.02% | 0.00% | +0.14% | -0.06% | -0.01% | +0.07% | -0.04% |
| 9 Avg +0.04% | 0.00% | +0.07% | +0.04% | +0.09% | +0.07% | -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.05% | +0.29% | +0.06% | -0.04% |
| 10 Avg -0.01% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.02% | +0.13% | -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.07% | +0.01% | -0.03% | +0.01% | +0.04% |
| 11 Avg -0.01% | +0.01% | +0.02% | +0.05% | -0.05% | -0.04% | +0.04% | +0.03% | -0.11% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.00% |
| 12 Avg +0.01% | -0.15% | +0.09% | -0.03% | -0.02% | +0.03% | -0.03% | +0.04% | 0.00% | +0.09% | -0.11% | +0.13% | +0.10% |
| 13 Avg -0.03% | -0.21% | +0.15% | -0.12% | +0.01% | +0.11% | +0.08% | -0.11% | +0.02% | -0.09% | +0.04% | -0.12% | -0.05% |
| 14 Avg 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.01% | +0.08% | +0.16% | -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.08% | +0.03% | -0.05% |
| 15 Avg +0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.12% | 0.00% | +0.02% | +0.02% | +0.06% | +0.09% | +0.03% | +0.08% | -0.08% | -0.13% |
| 16 Avg -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.12% | +0.06% | 0.00% | +0.05% | -0.09% | +0.04% | +0.21% | -0.05% | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.01% |
| 17 Avg +0.01% | +0.05% | -0.02% | -0.06% | +0.03% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.04% | +0.01% | +0.24% | -0.07% | +0.04% |
| 18 Avg +0.02% | 0.00% | +0.01% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.05% | +0.13% | +0.12% | -0.04% | +0.01% | +0.06% | +0.16% | +0.03% |
| 19 Avg +0.03% | -0.05% | +0.01% | +0.07% | +0.01% | +0.10% | -0.01% | +0.05% | -0.03% | +0.03% | 0.00% | +0.05% | +0.13% |
| 20 Avg +0.04% | 0.00% | +0.12% | +0.09% | +0.03% | +0.01% | +0.16% | +0.16% | -0.02% | +0.04% | -0.09% | +0.06% | -0.07% |
| 21 Avg -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.06% | +0.01% | +0.02% | +0.04% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.05% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.11% | +0.02% |
| 22 Avg 0.00% | -0.01% | +0.05% | -0.03% | +0.03% | -0.08% | +0.04% | 0.00% | -0.05% | +0.16% | -0.04% | -0.11% | +0.04% |
| 23 Avg +0.05% | +0.17% | -0.02% | +0.03% | +0.08% | +0.02% | +0.03% | +0.01% | +0.23% | -0.05% | +0.14% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
| 24 Avg -0.03% | -0.17% | 0.00% | -0.04% | -0.10% | +0.04% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.17% | +0.09% | +0.05% | -0.02% | +0.02% |
| 25 Avg +0.04% | -0.03% | +0.01% | +0.04% | +0.22% | -0.01% | +0.04% | +0.02% | +0.18% | +0.06% | +0.02% | +0.02% | -0.13% |
| 26 Avg +0.02% | -0.05% | -0.06% | +0.06% | +0.19% | +0.04% | +0.07% | -0.15% | -0.05% | +0.12% | +0.09% | -0.04% | +0.01% |
| 27 Avg +0.01% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -0.09% | +0.03% | +0.03% | +0.20% | +0.07% | -0.07% | +0.07% | -0.16% | -0.01% | -0.05% |
| 28 Avg +0.02% | +0.05% | -0.11% | +0.14% | +0.01% | +0.02% | -0.03% | +0.01% | -0.05% | +0.03% | +0.09% | +0.11% | -0.02% |
| 29 Avg +0.02% | -0.06% | - | 0.00% | +0.05% | -0.01% | +0.09% | +0.02% | +0.08% | +0.05% | +0.02% | -0.03% | -0.01% |
| 30 Avg -0.05% | -0.09% | - | +0.09% | -0.05% | +0.01% | -0.02% | +0.02% | -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.19% | -0.08% | -0.08% |
| 31 Avg -0.03% | -0.10% | - | -0.12% | - | -0.08% | - | -0.11% | +0.01% | - | +0.22% | - | -0.01% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
