Check historical price trends and seasonality for United Parcel Service (UPS).
United Parcel Service (UPS) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +2.65%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -7.11%.
1 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 20.00%.
1) Overview:
UPS's 10-year average seasonality reveals a distinct pattern of decline in the first half of the year, followed by a strong recovery in the second half. The stock tends to decline from early January, reaching its lowest point around May 23 with a -5.8% average change. A bullish phase then begins, culminating in a peak around November 30 with an average gain of +4.7%, followed by a slight consolidation to +2.6% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period for UPS historically occurs between January and May. This bearish trend often presents a buying opportunity, especially as the stock approaches its seasonal low around May 23, where it has shown an average decline of -5.8%. Investors can consider initiating or adding to their positions during this period, anticipating a rebound as the year progresses towards the peak season in November.
3) Summary:
An investment strategy based on UPS's seasonality would involve accumulating shares during the first half of the year, particularly around the May 23 low. The data suggests a strong tendency for the stock to appreciate in the second half, offering an opportunity to capitalize on the seasonal uptrend. Investors should consider these seasonal tendencies alongside fundamental analysis and broader market conditions for optimal entry and exit points.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 129.9400 | 2025-03-16 | 116.7600 | -13.1800 | -10.14 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 155.3300 | 2024-03-15 | 153.3700 | -1.9600 | -1.26 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 118.6100 | 2020-03-15 | 94.2300 | -24.3800 | -20.55 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 96.9900 | 2019-03-16 | 109.5200 | 12.5300 | 12.92 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 132.8800 | 2018-03-16 | 110.9100 | -21.9700 | -16.53 |
| Avg | 126.7500 | 116.9580 | -9.79 | -7.11 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -3.01% | Feb Total -1.21% | Mar Total +2.71% | Apr Total -1.32% | May Total -1.16% | Jun Total +2.93% | Jul Total +3.84% | Aug Total +1.36% | Sep Total -2.84% | Oct Total +0.31% | Nov Total +4.56% | Dec Total -2.23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.00% | 0.00% | +0.71% | +0.62% | -0.56% | -0.67% | +0.07% | +0.85% | -0.51% | +0.03% | -0.37% | +0.13% | -0.26% |
| 2 Avg +0.12% | +0.22% | +0.41% | +0.47% | +0.34% | -0.06% | +0.47% | -0.04% | -0.37% | +0.01% | 0.00% | -0.13% | +0.09% |
| 3 Avg -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.32% | -0.01% | -0.91% | +0.21% | +0.50% | +0.27% | +0.11% | -0.70% | 0.00% | +0.14% | -0.18% |
| 4 Avg +0.03% | +0.25% | +0.31% | +0.23% | -0.56% | +0.10% | +0.09% | 0.00% | +0.10% | +0.49% | +0.20% | +0.03% | -0.89% |
| 5 Avg -0.12% | -0.20% | -0.06% | +0.14% | -0.30% | +0.04% | +0.24% | -0.19% | +0.06% | -0.16% | +0.11% | -0.09% | -1.01% |
| 6 Avg +0.12% | +0.23% | +0.50% | +0.76% | +0.40% | -0.32% | +0.16% | -0.14% | +0.01% | -0.28% | -0.08% | +0.37% | -0.19% |
| 7 Avg -0.02% | -0.24% | -0.46% | -0.65% | -0.88% | -0.01% | +0.22% | -0.06% | +0.84% | -0.06% | -0.28% | +1.07% | +0.28% |
| 8 Avg +0.07% | +0.23% | -0.08% | -0.12% | +0.14% | +0.41% | 0.00% | +0.05% | +0.38% | -0.50% | -0.04% | +0.14% | +0.26% |
| 9 Avg -0.04% | +0.17% | -0.20% | -0.43% | +0.87% | -0.22% | -0.71% | +0.19% | -0.17% | +0.18% | +0.06% | -0.83% | +0.63% |
| 10 Avg +0.11% | -0.66% | -0.22% | +0.74% | -0.15% | +0.02% | +0.26% | +0.29% | +0.26% | +0.28% | -0.06% | +0.36% | +0.19% |
| 11 Avg -0.07% | +0.50% | -0.35% | -0.56% | +0.22% | -0.59% | -0.72% | +0.30% | -0.15% | +0.08% | -0.15% | +0.67% | -0.13% |
| 12 Avg +0.13% | +0.27% | +0.56% | -0.22% | -0.26% | +0.17% | +0.41% | +0.48% | +0.10% | -0.07% | +0.35% | -0.38% | +0.12% |
| 13 Avg +0.12% | -0.14% | +0.39% | +1.08% | +0.14% | -0.18% | -0.07% | -0.21% | +0.32% | -0.77% | +0.18% | +0.59% | +0.17% |
| 14 Avg +0.11% | +0.13% | 0.00% | +0.19% | +0.30% | +0.06% | +0.07% | +0.23% | +0.18% | +0.08% | +0.33% | +0.18% | -0.46% |
| 15 Avg +0.20% | -0.37% | +0.43% | 0.00% | -0.20% | +0.25% | +0.87% | +0.66% | +0.20% | -0.09% | +0.11% | +0.49% | +0.02% |
| 16 Avg +0.06% | -0.09% | -0.37% | -0.07% | +0.07% | +0.24% | -0.14% | +0.30% | +0.38% | -0.33% | +0.69% | +0.05% | +0.02% |
| 17 Avg +0.05% | +0.10% | -0.44% | +1.48% | +0.45% | +0.06% | -0.14% | -0.56% | -0.12% | -0.27% | +0.31% | -0.34% | +0.10% |
| 18 Avg -0.07% | +0.20% | -0.10% | +0.30% | +0.12% | -0.22% | -0.05% | -0.12% | -0.15% | -0.24% | -0.37% | +0.03% | -0.29% |
| 19 Avg -0.10% | -0.33% | -0.12% | -0.63% | +0.18% | -0.43% | -0.18% | +0.66% | +0.23% | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.33% | -0.23% |
| 20 Avg -0.20% | +0.15% | 0.00% | -0.76% | -0.19% | -0.06% | +0.20% | +0.03% | -0.28% | -0.17% | -0.03% | -0.66% | -0.66% |
| 21 Avg +0.01% | +0.18% | -0.50% | +0.10% | -0.30% | -0.17% | +0.13% | 0.00% | -0.20% | -0.12% | +0.25% | +0.65% | +0.12% |
| 22 Avg -0.07% | +0.19% | -0.17% | -0.45% | -0.20% | -0.33% | -0.07% | +0.40% | -0.12% | -0.58% | -0.15% | +0.53% | +0.09% |
| 23 Avg -0.16% | 0.00% | -0.26% | -0.78% | +0.60% | -0.54% | +0.64% | -0.91% | -0.34% | -0.30% | -0.52% | +0.31% | +0.20% |
| 24 Avg +0.07% | -0.21% | -0.26% | +0.47% | +0.24% | +0.04% | -0.07% | +0.84% | -0.04% | -0.19% | +0.22% | +0.12% | -0.38% |
| 25 Avg -0.12% | +0.24% | -0.19% | -0.37% | -1.69% | +0.24% | -0.93% | +0.89% | -0.04% | +0.43% | -0.27% | +0.29% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.16% | +0.21% | +0.04% | +0.47% | -0.27% | +0.43% | +0.62% | -0.27% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.10% | +0.03% | +0.76% |
| 27 Avg +0.14% | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.03% | +1.96% | +0.73% | -0.20% | -0.79% | +0.14% | +0.35% | -0.19% | -0.11% | +0.23% |
| 28 Avg +0.01% | +0.09% | -0.15% | +0.45% | -0.42% | -0.25% | +0.06% | +0.01% | +0.15% | +0.52% | -0.10% | +0.14% | -0.44% |
| 29 Avg +0.14% | -0.13% | - | +0.75% | -0.17% | -0.16% | +0.57% | -0.60% | +0.44% | -0.18% | +0.41% | +0.70% | -0.12% |
| 30 Avg -0.21% | -3.48% | - | -0.03% | -0.28% | +0.46% | +0.61% | +1.14% | +0.07% | -0.26% | -0.29% | +0.39% | -0.61% |
| 31 Avg -0.09% | -0.35% | - | -0.42% | - | -0.44% | - | +0.17% | -0.08% | - | +0.14% | - | +0.33% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
