Check historical price trends and seasonality for Toll Brothers (TOL).
Toll Brothers (TOL) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +21.79%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 3 for 60 days) is -5.27%.
3 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 42.86%.
1) Overview:
Toll Brothers (TOL) exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. The stock tends to rise steadily from early January, peaking in late November and early December. This bullish phase culminates around December 7, showing an average gain of +24.2%. A significant bearish period then occurs, with a notable dip around March 23, averaging -4.9%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
A potential buying opportunity arises during the pullback period in March and April. The most significant dip tends to occur around March 23, with an average decline of -4.9%. This pullback could be attributed to seasonal factors or broader market corrections. A rebound is likely to occur starting in May, as the stock begins its ascent toward the year-end highs.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, consider initiating a long position in TOL during the late March to April period to capitalize on the dip. Specifically, look for entry points around March 23. Be aware that seasonality is just one factor, and broader market conditions and company-specific news should also be considered when making investment decisions.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-03-03 | 108.3900 | 2025-05-01 | 101.1800 | -7.2100 | -6.65 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-03 | 60.1200 | 2023-05-01 | 63.1700 | 3.0500 | 5.07 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-03 | 53.7000 | 2022-05-01 | 46.3700 | -7.3300 | -13.65 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-03 | 52.6300 | 2021-05-01 | 62.7000 | 10.0700 | 19.13 |
| 2020 | 2020-03-03 | 38.7400 | 2020-05-01 | 23.8500 | -14.8900 | -38.44 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-03 | 35.1100 | 2017-05-01 | 36.1300 | 1.0200 | 2.91 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-03 | 28.8200 | 2016-05-01 | 27.3000 | -1.5200 | -5.27 |
| Avg | 53.9300 | 51.5286 | -2.40 | -5.27 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.41% | Feb Total -2.36% | Mar Total -2.91% | Apr Total +2.71% | May Total +5.38% | Jun Total -0.16% | Jul Total +5.48% | Aug Total +4.55% | Sep Total +0.08% | Oct Total -1.02% | Nov Total +8.33% | Dec Total -0.11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.30% | 0.00% | +0.41% | +0.59% | -0.43% | +0.12% | +0.26% | +0.66% | +0.42% | +0.53% | +0.15% | +1.02% | -0.08% |
| 2 Avg -0.04% | +0.06% | +0.12% | +1.01% | -0.61% | +0.46% | +0.51% | -0.07% | -1.27% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.53% | +0.17% |
| 3 Avg +0.12% | +0.43% | -0.68% | -0.50% | -0.21% | +0.95% | +0.77% | -0.07% | +0.13% | -0.56% | -0.01% | +0.48% | +0.75% |
| 4 Avg +0.30% | +0.70% | -0.27% | +0.10% | +0.22% | +1.07% | -0.01% | 0.00% | +0.38% | +0.43% | +0.54% | +0.83% | -0.34% |
| 5 Avg -0.09% | +0.09% | +0.27% | -0.27% | +0.12% | -0.25% | +0.60% | -0.44% | -0.28% | -0.53% | -0.47% | +0.72% | -0.62% |
| 6 Avg +0.13% | -0.52% | -0.27% | -0.08% | +1.44% | -0.09% | +0.25% | -0.07% | +0.11% | +0.34% | +0.11% | -0.47% | +0.86% |
| 7 Avg -0.01% | -0.44% | -0.29% | -0.43% | -1.17% | +0.44% | +0.36% | +0.33% | -0.06% | +0.03% | -0.94% | +0.43% | +1.62% |
| 8 Avg +0.12% | +0.14% | -0.85% | +0.21% | +0.48% | +0.59% | -0.21% | +0.89% | +0.55% | -0.32% | +0.27% | -0.02% | -0.34% |
| 9 Avg -0.07% | +0.30% | +0.35% | -0.50% | +0.98% | +0.26% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.42% | -0.03% | -0.20% | -0.91% | -0.60% |
| 10 Avg +0.16% | -0.31% | +0.22% | +0.29% | -0.57% | -0.22% | -0.95% | +1.21% | +0.21% | +0.19% | -0.06% | +2.52% | -0.65% |
| 11 Avg +0.02% | +1.08% | -0.42% | -0.84% | +1.06% | -1.07% | -1.86% | +0.25% | +0.31% | +1.10% | +0.15% | +0.56% | -0.11% |
| 12 Avg -0.04% | -0.07% | +1.02% | -1.44% | -0.47% | -0.16% | +1.32% | +0.35% | +0.40% | +0.48% | -0.87% | -0.67% | -0.35% |
| 13 Avg -0.26% | +0.30% | -0.47% | -0.49% | -0.19% | +0.03% | -1.25% | -0.71% | +0.30% | -0.86% | 0.00% | +0.06% | +0.12% |
| 14 Avg +0.11% | +0.32% | +0.28% | -0.59% | +0.36% | -0.02% | -0.37% | +0.32% | -0.34% | -0.28% | +0.59% | +0.71% | +0.34% |
| 15 Avg +0.09% | +0.54% | +0.49% | +0.39% | -1.01% | +0.70% | +0.54% | -0.21% | +0.41% | -0.25% | +0.01% | -0.80% | +0.21% |
| 16 Avg +0.03% | -0.23% | -0.32% | -2.00% | +0.08% | +0.28% | -0.60% | +1.37% | +0.10% | +1.30% | +0.60% | +0.03% | -0.27% |
| 17 Avg -0.24% | -0.11% | -0.76% | -1.19% | +0.83% | +0.03% | -0.58% | -0.41% | -0.70% | -0.22% | +0.06% | +0.26% | -0.11% |
| 18 Avg -0.08% | -0.49% | -0.34% | -0.76% | +0.29% | +0.93% | -0.83% | -0.10% | +0.09% | -0.11% | +0.50% | +0.30% | -0.46% |
| 19 Avg +0.02% | -0.32% | -0.26% | +1.62% | -0.35% | -0.25% | -0.27% | +0.28% | +0.32% | +0.42% | -0.86% | +0.14% | -0.29% |
| 20 Avg -0.19% | +0.08% | +0.17% | -0.89% | -1.30% | +0.21% | +0.45% | -0.63% | +0.56% | -1.36% | +0.12% | +0.21% | +0.13% |
| 21 Avg +0.28% | +0.35% | +0.06% | +0.03% | -0.20% | +0.44% | +0.08% | +0.44% | +1.73% | -0.09% | -0.38% | +0.75% | +0.15% |
| 22 Avg +0.07% | +0.59% | +0.94% | -0.36% | +0.20% | -2.22% | 0.00% | +1.69% | +0.19% | -0.02% | -0.93% | +0.54% | +0.19% |
| 23 Avg +0.20% | -0.21% | +0.30% | -1.93% | +1.33% | -0.68% | +1.04% | +0.11% | +1.28% | +0.03% | +0.77% | +0.72% | -0.39% |
| 24 Avg +0.50% | +0.45% | +0.28% | +4.30% | +0.44% | +1.27% | -0.32% | -0.63% | +0.05% | +0.06% | +0.20% | -0.46% | +0.36% |
| 25 Avg +0.46% | -0.45% | -0.21% | +1.97% | +0.16% | +1.48% | -0.91% | +0.18% | +1.06% | +0.04% | +0.43% | +1.73% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.04% | +0.08% | -1.09% | +0.56% | +0.53% | +1.02% | 0.00% | +0.40% | -0.97% | -0.51% | -0.13% | +0.05% | +0.57% |
| 27 Avg +0.12% | -0.31% | -0.66% | -0.10% | +1.02% | +1.71% | -0.07% | +0.23% | -0.17% | +0.14% | -0.52% | -0.09% | +0.29% |
| 28 Avg -0.06% | 0.00% | -0.40% | -0.38% | +0.41% | -0.87% | +0.45% | -0.38% | -0.17% | +0.56% | +0.35% | +0.03% | -0.26% |
| 29 Avg +0.14% | -0.41% | - | +0.52% | +0.67% | -0.12% | +0.73% | +0.81% | +0.20% | -0.49% | -1.05% | +0.67% | -0.04% |
| 30 Avg -0.14% | +0.19% | - | -0.97% | -1.41% | -0.19% | +0.76% | -0.01% | +0.27% | +0.19% | +0.72% | -0.50% | -0.56% |
| 31 Avg -0.20% | +0.58% | - | -0.79% | - | -0.50% | - | -0.26% | -0.16% | - | +0.09% | - | -0.38% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
