Check historical price trends and seasonality for Silver Futures (COMEX) (SI=F).
Silver Futures (COMEX) (SI=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +23.09%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 1 for 30 days) is +1.40%.
4 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 50.00%.
1) Overview:
Silver futures tend to experience a strong bullish phase from early in the year through the end of July, culminating in gains of approximately +11.9% by July 31. After peaking in late summer, silver enters a consolidation phase through late November. A significant rally then occurs in December, with prices increasing to +26.5% by December 28, before slightly retracing to +23.0% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
While the data doesn't explicitly show dips, the period around January 9, with an average decrease of -0.3%, could present a minor buying opportunity before the sustained rally begins. The consolidation period after the summer peak, specifically from September through November, might also offer chances to accumulate positions before the December surge. These periods could be viewed as potential pullbacks within the larger upward trend.
3) Summary:
The seasonality data suggests a strategy of accumulating silver futures positions during the early parts of the year and holding through the summer, then potentially adding to positions during the autumn consolidation. The most significant gains tend to occur in December, particularly around December 28, making this a key period to capitalize on the seasonal trend. However, traders should be mindful of potential volatility and manage risk accordingly.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-03-01 | 23.1500 | 2024-03-30 | 24.7970 | 1.6470 | 7.11 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-01 | 20.9590 | 2023-03-30 | 23.9020 | 2.9430 | 14.04 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-01 | 25.5340 | 2022-03-30 | 25.1030 | -0.4310 | -1.69 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-01 | 26.6470 | 2021-03-30 | 24.1210 | -2.5260 | -9.48 |
| 2019 | 2019-03-01 | 15.1690 | 2019-03-30 | 15.0600 | -0.1090 | -0.72 |
| 2018 | 2018-03-01 | 16.2000 | 2018-03-30 | 16.2230 | 0.0230 | 0.14 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-01 | 18.4430 | 2017-03-30 | 18.1850 | -0.2580 | -1.40 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-01 | 14.7330 | 2016-03-30 | 15.2060 | 0.4730 | 3.21 |
| Avg | 20.1044 | 20.3246 | 0.22 | 1.40 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.54% | Feb Total -1.79% | Mar Total +1.98% | Apr Total +1.75% | May Total +2.26% | Jun Total +0.57% | Jul Total +4.90% | Aug Total +0.85% | Sep Total -1.33% | Oct Total +2.15% | Nov Total +0.99% | Dec Total +5.91% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.33% | 0.00% | +0.84% | +0.63% | -0.44% | -0.67% | +0.37% | -0.09% | -0.41% | +0.15% | +0.90% | +1.26% | +1.36% |
| 2 Avg +0.01% | +0.37% | -1.46% | -0.07% | +1.15% | -0.08% | +0.52% | +0.14% | -0.21% | +0.01% | -0.42% | +0.03% | +0.13% |
| 3 Avg +0.19% | +0.05% | -0.23% | +0.59% | -0.66% | +0.46% | -0.15% | +0.42% | -0.23% | +0.52% | +1.13% | -0.26% | +0.67% |
| 4 Avg 0.00% | +0.49% | -0.06% | +0.47% | -0.46% | -0.36% | -0.15% | 0.00% | +0.62% | -0.23% | -0.49% | +0.61% | -0.47% |
| 5 Avg +0.02% | +0.14% | +0.05% | +0.22% | +0.09% | +0.18% | +0.24% | -0.01% | -0.39% | -0.31% | -0.10% | +0.51% | -0.41% |
| 6 Avg +0.14% | -0.27% | -0.04% | +0.39% | +0.64% | +1.00% | +0.92% | 0.00% | +0.17% | -0.47% | +0.09% | -0.12% | -0.61% |
| 7 Avg -0.08% | +0.59% | -0.09% | -0.95% | +0.48% | +0.17% | -0.51% | -0.32% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.48% | -0.58% | +0.85% |
| 8 Avg +0.10% | -1.49% | +1.04% | +0.34% | +0.37% | -0.02% | +0.66% | +0.10% | +0.49% | +0.06% | -0.23% | +0.44% | -0.54% |
| 9 Avg +0.01% | -0.11% | -0.22% | -0.28% | +0.87% | -0.23% | +0.19% | +0.12% | -0.20% | +0.18% | +0.48% | -1.14% | +0.41% |
| 10 Avg +0.24% | +0.18% | 0.00% | +0.25% | 0.00% | +0.02% | -0.05% | +0.41% | +1.03% | +0.03% | -0.12% | +0.96% | +0.18% |
| 11 Avg +0.09% | +0.12% | +0.03% | +0.13% | +1.06% | -0.23% | -0.03% | +0.54% | -1.55% | +0.03% | +0.36% | -0.06% | +0.64% |
| 12 Avg +0.11% | +0.76% | +0.54% | -0.47% | +0.32% | -0.73% | -0.18% | +0.39% | +0.13% | +1.09% | -0.27% | +0.47% | -0.69% |
| 13 Avg +0.22% | +0.07% | -0.42% | +0.35% | +0.49% | +0.16% | -0.65% | +0.63% | +0.78% | -0.40% | +1.00% | +0.37% | +0.26% |
| 14 Avg -0.08% | -0.41% | +0.61% | -0.58% | +0.11% | +0.28% | +0.40% | -0.43% | -0.64% | +0.13% | -0.21% | -0.76% | +0.54% |
| 15 Avg -0.05% | +0.24% | +0.05% | +0.02% | +0.07% | +0.97% | -0.66% | +0.15% | -0.45% | -0.01% | +0.05% | -0.10% | -0.87% |
| 16 Avg +0.10% | -0.02% | +0.13% | -1.41% | +0.21% | +0.03% | +0.54% | +0.05% | +0.30% | -0.17% | +0.46% | +0.20% | +0.81% |
| 17 Avg +0.11% | -0.25% | +0.12% | +1.05% | -0.41% | +1.03% | -0.69% | -0.08% | +0.36% | -0.44% | -0.27% | -0.19% | +1.06% |
| 18 Avg -0.02% | +0.01% | +0.39% | -0.71% | +0.36% | -0.16% | -0.02% | +0.41% | -0.04% | -0.49% | +0.41% | -0.01% | -0.34% |
| 19 Avg +0.08% | +0.61% | +0.16% | +0.14% | +0.20% | +0.24% | +0.01% | -0.69% | -0.88% | +0.78% | +0.43% | -0.04% | -0.02% |
| 20 Avg +0.24% | +0.46% | -0.03% | +0.12% | +0.14% | +0.62% | +0.17% | -0.09% | +0.22% | +0.07% | +0.81% | -0.55% | +0.95% |
| 21 Avg -0.13% | -0.20% | -0.19% | +0.15% | -0.67% | -0.52% | -0.72% | +1.17% | +0.28% | -0.61% | -0.29% | +0.11% | -0.03% |
| 22 Avg +0.01% | -0.41% | +0.21% | -0.29% | -0.52% | +0.10% | -0.18% | +0.88% | -0.28% | +0.77% | +0.10% | +0.03% | -0.31% |
| 23 Avg +0.01% | -0.18% | -0.05% | +0.57% | -0.21% | -0.37% | +0.13% | -0.16% | +1.14% | -0.74% | -0.07% | -0.82% | +0.88% |
| 24 Avg +0.24% | +0.62% | +0.11% | +1.13% | +0.19% | +0.19% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.13% | +0.22% | +0.04% | +0.22% | +0.39% |
| 25 Avg -0.18% | +0.48% | -1.09% | +0.59% | -0.78% | -0.21% | -0.10% | -0.77% | -0.13% | -0.26% | +0.21% | -0.18% | +0.09% |
| 26 Avg +0.06% | +0.05% | -0.97% | -0.23% | -0.02% | +0.24% | +0.37% | +0.11% | +0.42% | -0.28% | -0.36% | +0.35% | +1.02% |
| 27 Avg -0.10% | -0.89% | -0.50% | +0.16% | +0.06% | 0.00% | -0.20% | +0.49% | +0.42% | -0.79% | -0.31% | -0.43% | +0.82% |
| 28 Avg +0.13% | -0.24% | -0.72% | -0.35% | -0.17% | +0.48% | +0.02% | +0.89% | +0.37% | +0.72% | -0.44% | +0.66% | +0.31% |
| 29 Avg +0.08% | +0.79% | - | -0.16% | +0.11% | +0.42% | -0.03% | +0.60% | +0.44% | -0.27% | -0.01% | +0.11% | -1.16% |
| 30 Avg -0.05% | +0.56% | - | -0.21% | -0.85% | -0.19% | +0.39% | -0.28% | -0.79% | -0.49% | +0.49% | -0.10% | +0.91% |
| 31 Avg -0.14% | +0.43% | - | +0.40% | - | -0.56% | - | +0.42% | +0.02% | - | -0.76% | - | -0.90% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
