Check historical price trends and seasonality for Sugar #11 Futures (ICE US) (SB=F).
Sugar #11 Futures (ICE US) (SB=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +1.43%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 7 days) is -0.07%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
The Sugar #11 Futures market typically experiences a bullish phase from early January, climbing steadily to a peak around February 23, showing an average gain of +5.7%. A significant bearish trend then dominates the market from March through July, bottoming out around June 26 with an average loss of -4.6%. After this low point, the market enters a strong bullish phase again, peaking around October 8 with an average gain of +7.7% before gradually declining towards the end of the year, with a slight bump on December 31 of +1.4%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Based on the data, potential buying opportunities arise during the significant pullback from March through June. The most pronounced dip occurs around June 26, where the market tends to be down -4.6% on average, presenting a possible entry point for a long position anticipating the subsequent rally. Another potential, albeit less pronounced, dip occurs around the end of August, which could be considered a secondary buying opportunity before the strong October surge.
3) Summary:
A seasonal trading strategy for Sugar #11 Futures could involve entering a long position around late June, capitalizing on the seasonal low point, and aiming to exit around early October to capture the significant upward trend. Another possible entry point is around late August. Traders should be aware of the historical tendency for price declines from March through June and from mid-October through December, adjusting their positions accordingly.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 18.4100 | 2025-01-22 | 18.1600 | -0.2500 | -1.36 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 22.5200 | 2024-01-22 | 23.5000 | 0.9800 | 4.35 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 14.4300 | 2020-01-22 | 14.6600 | 0.2300 | 1.59 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 13.1700 | 2019-01-22 | 12.9300 | -0.2400 | -1.82 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 13.5900 | 2018-01-22 | 13.1700 | -0.4200 | -3.09 |
| Avg | 16.4240 | 16.4840 | 0.06 | -0.07 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.67% | Feb Total +1.49% | Mar Total -6.09% | Apr Total +0.73% | May Total +0.26% | Jun Total +0.19% | Jul Total -0.15% | Aug Total +1.45% | Sep Total +3.88% | Oct Total +3.24% | Nov Total -0.61% | Dec Total -2.13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.11% | -1.95% | -0.12% | +0.02% | -0.47% | +0.67% | -0.47% | -0.46% | +2.60% | -0.10% | -0.62% |
| 2 Avg +0.14% | +0.21% | +0.24% | -0.20% | +0.33% | -0.46% | +0.03% | -0.14% | -0.13% | +0.25% | +1.02% | +0.69% | -0.13% |
| 3 Avg -0.04% | +0.13% | +0.03% | -0.37% | -0.56% | -0.78% | +0.90% | +0.84% | -0.03% | -0.41% | -0.62% | +0.01% | +0.39% |
| 4 Avg -0.03% | +0.38% | +0.42% | -0.43% | -0.44% | -0.31% | -0.10% | 0.00% | +0.03% | -0.58% | +0.61% | -0.01% | +0.10% |
| 5 Avg +0.20% | -0.51% | +0.61% | +0.40% | +0.22% | +0.64% | +0.19% | -0.41% | +0.47% | +0.63% | +0.81% | -0.11% | -0.56% |
| 6 Avg -0.03% | -0.16% | -0.30% | -0.58% | +0.80% | -0.34% | +0.69% | -0.39% | +0.23% | -0.25% | +0.29% | +0.34% | -0.64% |
| 7 Avg -0.10% | +0.32% | -0.09% | -0.96% | +0.03% | -0.02% | -0.80% | +0.25% | -0.65% | +0.19% | -0.02% | +0.13% | +0.38% |
| 8 Avg +0.15% | -0.21% | -0.02% | +0.08% | -0.04% | -0.08% | +1.43% | -0.09% | +0.32% | -0.05% | +0.21% | -0.16% | +0.39% |
| 9 Avg 0.00% | +0.09% | +0.43% | -1.03% | +0.16% | -0.07% | +0.31% | -0.46% | +0.19% | -0.09% | -0.01% | +0.38% | +0.10% |
| 10 Avg -0.11% | +0.13% | +0.16% | +0.66% | -0.16% | +0.25% | -0.47% | -0.48% | -0.16% | -0.33% | -0.10% | -0.55% | -0.30% |
| 11 Avg +0.04% | -0.04% | +0.05% | +0.64% | -0.54% | +0.24% | -0.06% | +0.03% | +0.46% | +0.17% | -0.02% | +0.08% | -0.48% |
| 12 Avg -0.05% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -0.49% | -0.43% | +0.11% | -0.06% | -0.70% | +0.15% | +0.72% | -0.41% | +0.61% | -0.19% |
| 13 Avg -0.04% | +0.26% | -0.94% | -0.11% | -0.34% | -0.21% | -0.05% | +0.43% | +0.33% | +0.42% | +0.03% | +0.11% | -0.48% |
| 14 Avg +0.04% | +0.71% | +0.25% | +0.11% | +0.18% | +0.27% | -0.41% | -0.10% | -0.34% | -0.67% | +0.34% | +0.42% | -0.29% |
| 15 Avg +0.13% | +0.19% | +0.24% | -0.09% | +0.59% | -0.16% | -0.13% | +0.78% | -0.51% | +1.00% | +0.50% | -0.59% | -0.24% |
| 16 Avg +0.14% | +0.17% | +0.18% | -0.34% | +0.01% | +0.21% | +0.53% | +0.23% | +0.23% | +0.89% | -0.59% | +0.24% | -0.14% |
| 17 Avg -0.19% | -0.22% | +0.16% | +0.35% | -0.25% | -0.01% | -0.87% | -0.61% | -0.24% | -0.36% | +0.28% | +0.14% | -0.61% |
| 18 Avg +0.07% | +0.35% | +0.19% | +0.14% | +1.04% | +0.25% | -0.47% | -0.27% | -0.31% | +0.47% | -0.13% | +0.34% | -0.72% |
| 19 Avg -0.04% | -0.20% | +0.40% | -0.40% | -0.79% | +0.04% | -0.06% | -0.44% | +0.04% | +0.41% | -0.11% | -0.28% | +0.89% |
| 20 Avg +0.02% | -0.33% | -0.03% | -0.12% | +0.41% | +0.98% | +0.11% | +0.32% | -0.48% | +0.58% | -0.46% | -0.55% | -0.13% |
| 21 Avg -0.09% | -0.13% | +0.33% | +0.20% | -0.26% | +0.28% | -0.66% | -0.06% | -0.26% | +0.01% | -0.51% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
| 22 Avg +0.01% | -0.02% | +1.09% | +0.17% | -0.49% | -0.35% | -0.92% | -0.37% | +0.61% | +0.42% | +0.01% | -0.57% | +0.50% |
| 23 Avg +0.18% | +0.60% | +0.69% | +0.08% | -0.21% | -0.63% | -0.23% | +0.46% | +0.58% | +0.23% | +0.48% | -0.21% | +0.32% |
| 24 Avg +0.02% | +0.35% | -0.90% | -0.36% | +0.18% | -0.09% | +0.19% | -0.04% | +0.29% | -0.12% | +0.38% | +0.24% | +0.10% |
| 25 Avg -0.09% | -0.85% | -0.27% | +0.06% | -0.28% | +0.22% | +0.01% | -0.32% | +0.38% | +0.16% | -0.01% | -0.20% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg -0.27% | +0.06% | -0.97% | +0.08% | -0.30% | -0.13% | -0.96% | -0.19% | +0.51% | -0.84% | -0.43% | +0.04% | -0.15% |
| 27 Avg +0.02% | -0.24% | -0.86% | -0.29% | +0.07% | +0.03% | +0.60% | +0.28% | +0.77% | -0.28% | +0.08% | +0.01% | +0.09% |
| 28 Avg +0.23% | +0.05% | +0.37% | -0.09% | +0.23% | +0.21% | +0.27% | -0.09% | +0.27% | +0.69% | -0.25% | +0.24% | +0.81% |
| 29 Avg +0.01% | +0.20% | - | -0.64% | +0.61% | +0.06% | +1.02% | +0.32% | -0.35% | +0.32% | -0.82% | -0.65% | +0.07% |
| 30 Avg +0.07% | +0.26% | - | +0.01% | +1.10% | -0.07% | +0.62% | -0.15% | -0.27% | +0.76% | -0.29% | -0.71% | -0.53% |
| 31 Avg +0.06% | +0.19% | - | -0.66% | - | +0.17% | - | +0.54% | -0.21% | - | +0.39% | - | 0.00% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
