Check historical price trends and seasonality for RBOB Gasoline Futures (NYMEX) (RB=F).
RBOB Gasoline Futures (NYMEX) (RB=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +5.87%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Feb 8 for 30 days) is +17.97%.
8 wins 0 losses with a win rate of 100.00%.
1) Overview:
RBOB Gasoline Futures typically experience a strong bullish phase starting in late January, accelerating through February, and peaking around May 17 with an impressive +22.5%. Following this peak, prices tend to decline gradually through the summer and into early autumn. A significant bearish phase occurs from August into November, followed by a consolidation period with a slight upward trend towards the end of the year, culminating on December 31 with +5.8%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
A potential buying opportunity arises around January 8, where the average tendency is a dip of -1.3%. Another, more significant, pullback occurs from August into November, presenting a longer-term buying opportunity as prices decline from their summer highs. This decline is followed by a consolidation period, which could be viewed as another opportunity to establish long positions in anticipation of the year-end rally.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to RBOB Gasoline Futures could involve initiating long positions around January 8, capitalizing on the dip before the significant rally into May. Alternatively, consider accumulating positions during the August-November decline. These strategies aim to leverage the observed seasonal patterns for potentially profitable trades, while always considering broader market conditions and risk management.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-02-08 | 2.3420 | 2024-03-08 | 2.5272 | 0.1852 | 7.91 |
| 2023 | 2023-02-08 | 2.4628 | 2023-03-09 | 2.6051 | 0.1423 | 5.78 |
| 2022 | 2022-02-08 | 2.6251 | 2022-03-09 | 3.2938 | 0.6687 | 25.47 |
| 2021 | 2021-02-08 | 1.6748 | 2021-03-09 | 2.0502 | 0.3754 | 22.41 |
| 2019 | 2019-02-08 | 1.4464 | 2019-03-09 | 1.8017 | 0.3553 | 24.56 |
| 2018 | 2018-02-08 | 1.7650 | 2018-03-09 | 1.9043 | 0.1393 | 7.89 |
| 2017 | 2017-02-08 | 1.5527 | 2017-03-09 | 1.6243 | 0.0716 | 4.61 |
| 2016 | 2016-02-08 | 0.9561 | 2016-03-08 | 1.3878 | 0.4317 | 45.15 |
| Avg | 1.8531 | 2.1493 | 0.30 | 17.97 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.05% | Feb Total +2.28% | Mar Total +7.85% | Apr Total +4.66% | May Total +4.33% | Jun Total +1.82% | Jul Total +1.40% | Aug Total -2.31% | Sep Total -6.39% | Oct Total -0.13% | Nov Total -4.44% | Dec Total +2.99% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.28% | 0.00% | +0.55% | +9.22% | -0.48% | -0.17% | -0.11% | +0.66% | -3.96% | -5.46% | -0.91% | -1.92% | -0.74% |
| 2 Avg +0.16% | +0.07% | -1.11% | +1.68% | +2.33% | -0.90% | +1.19% | -0.07% | -0.61% | -0.04% | -0.95% | +0.74% | -0.43% |
| 3 Avg -0.09% | +0.41% | +0.37% | +1.21% | +0.06% | -0.62% | -0.56% | -0.13% | -0.11% | -2.11% | +0.61% | -0.38% | +0.18% |
| 4 Avg +0.13% | -0.44% | -0.07% | +1.47% | -0.37% | +1.03% | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.28% | -0.60% | +0.50% | +0.27% | +0.06% |
| 5 Avg +0.04% | +0.23% | -0.14% | -0.07% | +0.02% | +1.42% | +0.31% | -1.56% | +0.21% | -0.79% | +0.83% | +0.22% | -0.20% |
| 6 Avg -0.22% | -0.72% | +0.19% | -0.56% | -0.16% | +0.05% | +0.18% | -0.53% | -0.34% | -0.20% | +0.12% | +0.05% | -0.67% |
| 7 Avg -0.12% | -0.39% | +0.31% | +0.25% | -1.02% | +0.19% | +0.05% | +0.40% | -0.33% | -0.22% | +0.14% | -1.00% | +0.12% |
| 8 Avg +0.22% | -0.44% | +0.51% | -0.36% | +1.21% | +0.93% | +0.22% | +0.41% | +0.07% | +0.07% | +0.19% | -0.43% | +0.22% |
| 9 Avg -0.05% | +0.89% | -0.82% | -2.55% | +0.47% | -0.36% | +0.25% | +0.15% | +0.37% | +0.35% | -0.21% | +0.50% | +0.36% |
| 10 Avg +0.12% | +0.14% | +0.74% | -0.38% | +0.40% | +0.45% | -0.53% | +0.40% | +0.38% | -0.13% | -0.08% | +0.13% | -0.13% |
| 11 Avg +0.26% | +0.89% | +0.22% | +0.81% | +0.20% | +0.78% | -0.40% | +0.14% | +0.64% | +0.29% | -0.36% | -0.11% | -0.03% |
| 12 Avg -0.01% | +0.48% | +1.55% | -1.73% | +0.72% | +0.43% | -1.11% | -0.14% | +0.35% | +0.61% | -0.66% | -0.31% | -0.27% |
| 13 Avg +0.24% | 0.00% | +0.34% | +0.09% | +0.69% | -0.48% | +0.76% | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.12% | +1.41% | -0.58% | +0.99% |
| 14 Avg -0.06% | +0.07% | +0.05% | -0.32% | +0.79% | +0.81% | -0.88% | -0.20% | -0.63% | +0.02% | -0.38% | -0.66% | +0.65% |
| 15 Avg -0.07% | -0.11% | +0.21% | -1.19% | -0.39% | +1.09% | +0.02% | -0.22% | -0.71% | +0.78% | -0.22% | +0.18% | -0.30% |
| 16 Avg -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.42% | -1.86% | -0.06% | +1.01% | +0.45% | -1.10% | -0.45% | +2.12% | +0.03% | -0.34% | -0.06% |
| 17 Avg +0.18% | +0.11% | +0.28% | +1.13% | -0.23% | +0.52% | +0.02% | +0.12% | +0.31% | -0.05% | -0.15% | +0.20% | -0.11% |
| 18 Avg +0.10% | +0.16% | -0.14% | -1.34% | -0.09% | +0.09% | +1.15% | +0.13% | +0.97% | +0.10% | -0.05% | +0.29% | -0.14% |
| 19 Avg +0.08% | +0.21% | +0.18% | +0.71% | -0.72% | +0.43% | +0.08% | -0.48% | -0.32% | +0.07% | +0.52% | -0.67% | +0.93% |
| 20 Avg -0.09% | +0.37% | 0.00% | -0.62% | -0.50% | -0.50% | +0.45% | +0.09% | +0.20% | -1.14% | +0.42% | +0.04% | +0.14% |
| 21 Avg -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.34% | +0.86% | -2.57% | +0.14% | +0.55% | +0.22% | -0.51% | -0.17% | -0.27% | +0.97% | +0.12% |
| 22 Avg +0.51% | +0.12% | +0.82% | +0.48% | +2.82% | -0.05% | +0.53% | +0.43% | -0.24% | +0.08% | +0.64% | +0.50% | -0.01% |
| 23 Avg -0.24% | +0.03% | +0.08% | -3.39% | +0.40% | -0.53% | -0.44% | +0.04% | +0.83% | -0.42% | -0.27% | -0.46% | +1.22% |
| 24 Avg +0.19% | -0.62% | +0.32% | +1.28% | +0.24% | +0.55% | -1.52% | +0.56% | +0.95% | +0.50% | -0.06% | +0.38% | -0.29% |
| 25 Avg +0.16% | -0.44% | -0.83% | +2.32% | -0.33% | -0.70% | -0.07% | +0.70% | +1.13% | +0.06% | +1.24% | -1.20% | +0.04% |
| 26 Avg +0.15% | +0.99% | -0.56% | +0.10% | +0.20% | +0.56% | +0.58% | +0.53% | -0.61% | +0.29% | -0.43% | -0.58% | +0.69% |
| 27 Avg +0.11% | -0.54% | +0.44% | +0.72% | +0.21% | -0.27% | -0.25% | +0.31% | -0.23% | +0.45% | +0.77% | -0.36% | +0.10% |
| 28 Avg +0.13% | +0.28% | -0.43% | -0.37% | +0.90% | +0.30% | +0.69% | +0.28% | +0.47% | +0.71% | -1.59% | +0.31% | -0.02% |
| 29 Avg +0.09% | +0.09% | - | +0.18% | +0.55% | -0.28% | +0.48% | +0.33% | +0.43% | -1.21% | +0.14% | -0.24% | +0.49% |
| 30 Avg -0.19% | -0.55% | - | +0.46% | -0.65% | -0.92% | -0.24% | +0.18% | -0.36% | -0.24% | -0.30% | 0.00% | +0.58% |
| 31 Avg -0.34% | -0.10% | - | -0.39% | - | -0.67% | - | -0.14% | +0.20% | - | -0.79% | - | -0.48% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
