Check historical price trends and seasonality for E-mini Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) (QM=F).
E-mini Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) (QM=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +7.78%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -7.75%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
E-mini Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) (QM=F) tend to experience a strong bullish phase from early January through early March, rising from approximately +0.5% to +9.0%. A bearish pullback typically occurs around April 20, with an average decline of -2.6%. The strongest bullish period is observed from late April through early July, culminating in a peak around July 3 with an average gain of +13.2%. A final bullish push is seen in December, ending on December 31 with an average gain of +7.7%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
A potential buying opportunity arises around April 20, as the market tends to experience a pullback of -2.6% at this time. This dip could be attributed to profit-taking after the strong gains in the first quarter. Another buying opportunity may present itself in August, as the market consolidates after the strong July gains. These pullbacks offer strategic entry points for those looking to capitalize on the overall upward seasonal trend.
3) Summary:
A seasonal investment strategy for E-mini Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) (QM=F) could involve entering long positions after the dip around April 20, to capitalize on the subsequent rally into early July. Another entry point could be considered in late November, to take advantage of the December rally. However, traders should be aware of potential volatility and external factors that could influence price movements, and use appropriate risk management techniques.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 78.6800 | 2025-03-16 | 67.1800 | -11.5000 | -14.62 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 72.4000 | 2024-03-15 | 81.0400 | 8.6400 | 11.93 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 58.5250 | 2020-03-15 | 31.7250 | -26.8000 | -45.79 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 52.3000 | 2019-03-16 | 58.5250 | 6.2250 | 11.90 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 63.7300 | 2018-03-16 | 62.3400 | -1.3900 | -2.18 |
| Avg | 65.1270 | 60.1620 | -4.97 | -7.75 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.84% | Feb Total +1.43% | Mar Total -3.09% | Apr Total -35.89% | May Total +5.51% | Jun Total +4.66% | Jul Total +0.35% | Aug Total -2.19% | Sep Total +1.46% | Oct Total -0.87% | Nov Total -2.46% | Dec Total +3.23% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.27% | +1.04% | +0.06% | -0.17% | +0.34% | +1.16% | -2.54% | -0.38% | -0.19% | +0.31% | +0.19% |
| 2 Avg +0.22% | +0.30% | -0.71% | +0.94% | +2.58% | -1.33% | +1.09% | -0.08% | -0.44% | +0.49% | -0.95% | +0.37% | +0.31% |
| 3 Avg +0.21% | +0.52% | +0.74% | +0.19% | +1.18% | -0.77% | -0.07% | +0.39% | +0.09% | -1.02% | +1.35% | -0.51% | +0.39% |
| 4 Avg +0.19% | -0.32% | -0.14% | +1.44% | -0.39% | +0.76% | -0.03% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.20% | -0.21% | +0.78% | +0.63% |
| 5 Avg +0.17% | +0.72% | -0.44% | +0.02% | -0.30% | +2.55% | +0.40% | -1.66% | -0.14% | +0.01% | +1.07% | +0.26% | -0.40% |
| 6 Avg -0.22% | -0.17% | -0.06% | -0.85% | -0.85% | +0.29% | +0.75% | +0.04% | -0.46% | -0.03% | +0.28% | -0.45% | -1.08% |
| 7 Avg -0.18% | -0.23% | -0.34% | +0.43% | -1.12% | -0.48% | +0.20% | 0.00% | -0.48% | -0.64% | +0.65% | -0.15% | +0.07% |
| 8 Avg +0.12% | -0.36% | +0.03% | -1.21% | +1.46% | +1.23% | -0.04% | +0.41% | +0.65% | -0.15% | +0.09% | -0.96% | +0.34% |
| 9 Avg -0.20% | +0.73% | -0.66% | -3.34% | -0.50% | -0.47% | -0.01% | -0.17% | +0.34% | +0.66% | +0.21% | +0.88% | -0.10% |
| 10 Avg +0.15% | +0.06% | +0.31% | +0.56% | +0.22% | +0.01% | -0.04% | +0.47% | +0.10% | -0.31% | -0.07% | +0.03% | +0.48% |
| 11 Avg +0.17% | +0.38% | -0.02% | +0.48% | +0.18% | +0.54% | -0.22% | -0.01% | +0.85% | +0.07% | -0.18% | +0.09% | -0.08% |
| 12 Avg +0.26% | +0.50% | +1.59% | -0.44% | +1.50% | +0.98% | -0.65% | -0.23% | +0.60% | +0.76% | -0.78% | -0.59% | -0.06% |
| 13 Avg +0.24% | +0.08% | +0.18% | +0.05% | +0.12% | +0.07% | +1.41% | +0.03% | -0.09% | -0.41% | +1.28% | -0.71% | +0.94% |
| 14 Avg -0.20% | +0.43% | +0.38% | -1.14% | -0.28% | +1.03% | -0.72% | -0.38% | -0.77% | +0.18% | -0.66% | -0.51% | +0.01% |
| 15 Avg -0.12% | -0.44% | +0.09% | -1.18% | -0.48% | +1.00% | +0.02% | +0.06% | -0.67% | +0.44% | -0.51% | +0.39% | -0.13% |
| 16 Avg +0.11% | -0.14% | +0.37% | -0.33% | +0.06% | +0.97% | +0.23% | -0.58% | -0.72% | +2.16% | -0.10% | -0.43% | -0.12% |
| 17 Avg -0.03% | -0.02% | +0.27% | +0.48% | -1.07% | +0.55% | 0.00% | -0.44% | +0.61% | -0.36% | -0.24% | -0.14% | +0.06% |
| 18 Avg -0.03% | +0.37% | +0.02% | -2.97% | +0.27% | +0.32% | +0.89% | +0.46% | +0.91% | -0.09% | -0.38% | +0.39% | -0.59% |
| 19 Avg +0.13% | -0.04% | -0.20% | +2.69% | -0.71% | +0.13% | +0.09% | -0.79% | -0.39% | +0.22% | +0.68% | -0.87% | +0.79% |
| 20 Avg -2.60% | +0.39% | +0.08% | -0.70% | -30.14% | +0.06% | +0.56% | -0.18% | -0.31% | -0.44% | -0.08% | -0.02% | -0.41% |
| 21 Avg -0.93% | +0.04% | -0.15% | +1.77% | -13.75% | +0.31% | +0.31% | +0.08% | -0.62% | -0.20% | -0.34% | +1.16% | +0.20% |
| 22 Avg +0.41% | +0.48% | +1.65% | -0.46% | +2.06% | -0.44% | -0.21% | -0.46% | +0.11% | +0.65% | +0.94% | +0.31% | +0.25% |
| 23 Avg +0.01% | -0.38% | -0.23% | -0.14% | +2.20% | -0.54% | -0.75% | -0.27% | +1.15% | -0.60% | -0.19% | -0.88% | +0.70% |
| 24 Avg +0.16% | -0.20% | +0.13% | +0.64% | +0.13% | +0.71% | -1.14% | +0.48% | +0.15% | +0.37% | -0.24% | +0.62% | +0.24% |
| 25 Avg -0.10% | +0.12% | -0.65% | +0.03% | -0.67% | -0.97% | +0.27% | +0.51% | +0.53% | +0.07% | +0.49% | -0.87% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.06% | +1.01% | -0.49% | -0.17% | +0.03% | +0.98% | +0.67% | -0.25% | +0.01% | -0.21% | -0.20% | -1.14% | +0.42% |
| 27 Avg -0.08% | -0.44% | +0.13% | -0.16% | -2.05% | -0.40% | +0.34% | +0.14% | +0.25% | +0.64% | +0.76% | -0.10% | -0.02% |
| 28 Avg +0.02% | +0.04% | -0.17% | -0.53% | +0.48% | +0.71% | +0.67% | +0.13% | -0.19% | +0.90% | -1.82% | +0.27% | -0.24% |
| 29 Avg +0.33% | -0.09% | - | +0.08% | +1.91% | +0.25% | +0.75% | +0.88% | +0.79% | -0.75% | -0.25% | -0.31% | +0.32% |
| 30 Avg -0.12% | -0.38% | - | -0.09% | +1.99% | -0.99% | -0.42% | -0.10% | -1.16% | -0.36% | -0.51% | +0.33% | +0.39% |
| 31 Avg -0.34% | -0.13% | - | -0.21% | - | -1.38% | - | +0.75% | -0.32% | - | -0.78% | - | -0.30% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
