Check historical price trends and seasonality for E-mini Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) (QG=F).
E-mini Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) (QG=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +10.18%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 1 for 30 days) is +1.37%.
4 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 50.00%.
1) Overview:
E-mini Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) typically experience a bearish trend from early January, bottoming out around February 13 with an average decline of -14.7%. Following this low, the market enters a prolonged bullish phase, gradually climbing throughout the spring and summer months. This upward trajectory culminates in a significant rally, peaking around November 28 with an average gain of +32.3%, before experiencing a slight correction into the end of the year, where it ends on December 31 at +10.1%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant buying opportunity arises during the steep decline in January and February, with the lowest point historically occurring around February 13, down -14.7%. This pullback is likely driven by reduced heating demand as winter begins to wane. Another potential, albeit smaller, buying opportunity could be considered in late June as the bullish momentum slows down. Traders might anticipate a rebound following these pullbacks, capitalizing on the subsequent seasonal strength.
3) Summary:
A seasonal trading strategy for E-mini Natural Gas Futures could involve establishing long positions around February 13, anticipating a rally through the spring, summer, and fall. The most opportune time to take profits would be near November 28, capturing the substantial +32.3% average gain. Traders should be aware that these are average tendencies and not guarantees, and external factors can influence market movements.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-03-01 | 1.8350 | 2024-03-30 | 1.7630 | -0.0720 | -3.92 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-01 | 2.8100 | 2023-03-30 | 2.1040 | -0.7060 | -25.12 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-01 | 4.5750 | 2022-03-30 | 5.6050 | 1.0300 | 22.51 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-01 | 2.7750 | 2021-03-30 | 2.6250 | -0.1500 | -5.41 |
| 2019 | 2019-03-01 | 2.8600 | 2019-03-30 | 2.6600 | -0.2000 | -6.99 |
| 2018 | 2018-03-01 | 2.6980 | 2018-03-30 | 2.7330 | 0.0350 | 1.30 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-01 | 2.8000 | 2017-03-30 | 3.1900 | 0.3900 | 13.93 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-01 | 1.7400 | 2016-03-30 | 1.9950 | 0.2550 | 14.66 |
| Avg | 2.7616 | 2.8344 | 0.07 | 1.37 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -8.61% | Feb Total -2.99% | Mar Total +2.70% | Apr Total +7.90% | May Total +4.49% | Jun Total +2.50% | Jul Total +0.26% | Aug Total +9.08% | Sep Total +6.44% | Oct Total +8.83% | Nov Total +4.37% | Dec Total -11.33% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.39% | 0.00% | -1.41% | +0.49% | +0.10% | -0.39% | +0.43% | -0.45% | -1.14% | +0.05% | -0.17% | -2.00% | -0.17% |
| 2 Avg -0.18% | -0.72% | +1.07% | +0.54% | -0.10% | -0.15% | +0.52% | +0.22% | -1.29% | -0.58% | -0.73% | +1.17% | -2.10% |
| 3 Avg +0.28% | -2.54% | -0.89% | +1.57% | -0.16% | +1.22% | +0.69% | -0.64% | +3.46% | +1.02% | +0.48% | -0.24% | -0.55% |
| 4 Avg +0.32% | +0.64% | -0.76% | +1.64% | -0.35% | +0.89% | -0.42% | -0.06% | +0.06% | +0.55% | +0.65% | +1.73% | -0.75% |
| 5 Avg -0.04% | -0.22% | +0.18% | +0.12% | -0.04% | +0.96% | +0.22% | -1.62% | -0.46% | -1.01% | +2.62% | -1.20% | +0.01% |
| 6 Avg -0.32% | +0.59% | -0.03% | -2.00% | -0.14% | -1.80% | +1.79% | +0.49% | +0.66% | -0.92% | -0.84% | +0.92% | -2.56% |
| 7 Avg +0.25% | +0.35% | -1.07% | -0.18% | +1.40% | +0.39% | +0.67% | +1.40% | +1.51% | -0.60% | +0.35% | -0.97% | -0.24% |
| 8 Avg -0.25% | +0.95% | -0.42% | -1.04% | -0.65% | +0.01% | -0.41% | -0.40% | -0.19% | +0.54% | -0.69% | -0.96% | +0.22% |
| 9 Avg +0.09% | +1.32% | -1.50% | +0.78% | +0.84% | +0.09% | -0.03% | -0.67% | +0.59% | +0.31% | +0.13% | -0.79% | -0.01% |
| 10 Avg +0.23% | +0.66% | -0.21% | +1.32% | -0.01% | +0.73% | -0.44% | +0.85% | -0.40% | -0.53% | -0.72% | +0.58% | +0.91% |
| 11 Avg +0.31% | +1.43% | +0.14% | -0.65% | -0.82% | +0.73% | +1.54% | +0.61% | +0.69% | -0.09% | -0.40% | +1.16% | -0.63% |
| 12 Avg -0.03% | +2.51% | +0.06% | -1.33% | +0.43% | -0.38% | -0.67% | -0.31% | -0.74% | +1.94% | +0.55% | -1.05% | -1.41% |
| 13 Avg 0.00% | -2.12% | -1.38% | +0.89% | +0.70% | -0.39% | -0.23% | -0.23% | +0.03% | +0.47% | +0.70% | +1.91% | -0.36% |
| 14 Avg -0.05% | -0.70% | +1.00% | -0.20% | -0.36% | -0.08% | -1.50% | +0.27% | +1.23% | +1.13% | -1.71% | +1.19% | -0.92% |
| 15 Avg -0.04% | +1.36% | -0.05% | -1.75% | -1.20% | -0.13% | +1.02% | +0.06% | -0.11% | -0.19% | +0.54% | -0.65% | +0.62% |
| 16 Avg -0.20% | -1.58% | +0.93% | +0.56% | +0.58% | +0.04% | +0.50% | -0.36% | +0.03% | -0.48% | -1.51% | -0.11% | -1.02% |
| 17 Avg -0.30% | -0.30% | -0.57% | -0.45% | +0.61% | +1.52% | -0.40% | -0.77% | -0.03% | -1.69% | -0.41% | -1.31% | +0.21% |
| 18 Avg +0.21% | -1.58% | +0.53% | -0.75% | +1.43% | +1.25% | +0.43% | +1.58% | +0.03% | +0.55% | -2.32% | +0.76% | +0.60% |
| 19 Avg -0.30% | -1.90% | +0.41% | +1.21% | -0.59% | -0.22% | -0.91% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.61% | +0.17% | -0.97% |
| 20 Avg -0.01% | -1.24% | -0.55% | -1.49% | +0.79% | +1.02% | -1.15% | +1.02% | -0.43% | +0.19% | +1.54% | +1.09% | -0.94% |
| 21 Avg -0.19% | -0.61% | -0.07% | +0.20% | -1.61% | -1.10% | +0.11% | -0.62% | +1.03% | -2.22% | -0.82% | +1.45% | +1.97% |
| 22 Avg -0.10% | -1.12% | +0.20% | -0.54% | +0.95% | -0.12% | -0.14% | +1.54% | -0.75% | -1.23% | +0.32% | -0.66% | +0.29% |
| 23 Avg +0.17% | +1.66% | -0.24% | -0.63% | -0.83% | -0.11% | -0.56% | -0.12% | -0.42% | +2.31% | -0.02% | +1.32% | -0.35% |
| 24 Avg +0.11% | +1.06% | +0.41% | +0.97% | -1.32% | -0.42% | +0.34% | -0.89% | +0.41% | +0.61% | +0.71% | -0.40% | -0.13% |
| 25 Avg +0.18% | +0.17% | +0.62% | +0.08% | +0.11% | -0.10% | -1.04% | +0.69% | 0.00% | +0.22% | +1.92% | +0.59% | -1.14% |
| 26 Avg +1.06% | +1.33% | -0.13% | +0.99% | +3.25% | +2.33% | +1.10% | -0.52% | +0.77% | +1.22% | +0.50% | +1.29% | +0.56% |
| 27 Avg +0.64% | -1.11% | +0.76% | -0.39% | +1.93% | +0.39% | +1.37% | -1.52% | +1.73% | +2.77% | +3.76% | -1.20% | -0.83% |
| 28 Avg +0.80% | -0.45% | -0.03% | +0.52% | +1.79% | +0.44% | +0.36% | +0.37% | +1.15% | +3.70% | -0.62% | +3.51% | -1.15% |
| 29 Avg +0.33% | -4.47% | - | +1.91% | +1.16% | +0.59% | +0.86% | +1.49% | +1.40% | -1.68% | +4.13% | -1.54% | -0.18% |
| 30 Avg -0.64% | -1.55% | - | +0.11% | +0.02% | -2.01% | -1.57% | -0.65% | -0.45% | +0.10% | +0.18% | -1.36% | +0.16% |
| 31 Avg +0.04% | -0.42% | - | +0.19% | - | -0.68% | - | -0.42% | +0.77% | - | +1.31% | - | -0.49% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
