Check historical price trends and seasonality for Paychex (PAYX).
Paychex (PAYX) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +9.47%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -1.32%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Paychex exhibits a clear seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. The stock tends to decline from early January through late March, with a notable dip around March 23, averaging -3.5%. A strong bullish phase then emerges, starting in late May and extending through December, culminating in significant gains around December 13 (+9.9%) and December 31 (+9.4%).
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period for Paychex historically occurs between early January and late March. This decline, potentially driven by profit-taking after the year-end rally, presents a buying opportunity. Another, less pronounced, dip occurs in April. The period around March 23, with an average decline of -3.5%, could be an opportune entry point before the stock begins its ascent in late May.
3) Summary:
A seasonal investment strategy for Paychex could involve accumulating shares during the weakness in late March, specifically around March 23, to capitalize on the subsequent rally. The stock tends to perform well from late May through December, so consider holding through this period. Be mindful of potential profit-taking in early January, and adjust your position accordingly.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 146.8400 | 2025-03-16 | 145.4400 | -1.4000 | -0.95 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 119.8100 | 2024-03-15 | 120.2800 | 0.4700 | 0.39 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 87.9700 | 2020-03-15 | 71.5600 | -16.4100 | -18.65 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 68.4800 | 2019-03-16 | 79.2300 | 10.7500 | 15.70 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 68.2600 | 2018-03-16 | 66.1500 | -2.1100 | -3.09 |
| Avg | 98.2720 | 96.5320 | -1.74 | -1.32 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -1.35% | Feb Total +0.85% | Mar Total +1.43% | Apr Total -0.83% | May Total +2.58% | Jun Total +0.75% | Jul Total +3.56% | Aug Total +0.56% | Sep Total -1.63% | Oct Total +0.22% | Nov Total +4.77% | Dec Total -0.30% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.15% | +0.29% | -0.07% | -0.44% | +0.28% | +0.54% | -0.70% | +0.05% | +0.37% | -0.53% | +0.03% |
| 2 Avg +0.17% | -0.35% | +0.55% | +0.79% | -0.07% | +0.13% | +0.85% | +0.05% | -0.13% | -0.26% | +0.12% | +0.46% | -0.09% |
| 3 Avg -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.33% | -0.31% | -0.72% | +0.47% | +0.05% | -0.03% | +0.41% | -0.28% | +0.26% | -0.26% | +0.16% |
| 4 Avg +0.10% | +0.10% | +0.58% | +0.38% | -0.94% | +0.75% | +0.34% | 0.00% | -0.22% | +0.24% | +0.21% | -0.07% | -0.15% |
| 5 Avg +0.04% | -0.56% | -0.41% | +0.04% | +0.33% | -0.70% | +1.14% | +0.62% | -0.28% | -0.16% | +0.44% | +0.34% | -0.28% |
| 6 Avg +0.18% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.33% | +0.48% | +0.17% | +0.20% | +0.47% | +0.29% | +0.17% | -0.15% | +0.72% | +0.22% |
| 7 Avg -0.06% | -0.44% | -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.57% | +0.15% | +0.16% | -0.50% | +0.31% | -0.09% | -0.08% | +0.44% | +0.09% |
| 8 Avg -0.03% | +0.18% | -0.51% | -0.15% | +0.04% | -0.47% | 0.00% | +0.04% | +0.19% | -0.12% | +0.03% | +0.41% | -0.01% |
| 9 Avg +0.09% | -0.12% | +0.57% | -0.17% | +1.18% | -0.07% | -0.65% | +0.14% | -0.04% | -0.16% | +0.35% | +0.33% | -0.30% |
| 10 Avg +0.09% | -0.22% | -0.17% | +0.37% | -0.03% | +0.47% | -0.37% | +0.34% | +0.31% | -0.22% | -0.32% | +0.82% | +0.11% |
| 11 Avg -0.19% | +0.19% | -0.14% | -0.44% | -0.04% | -0.74% | -0.60% | -0.30% | -0.16% | +0.18% | -0.61% | +0.12% | +0.20% |
| 12 Avg +0.02% | +0.15% | +0.34% | -1.08% | -0.13% | -0.64% | +0.57% | +0.24% | -0.11% | +0.33% | +0.31% | -0.26% | +0.48% |
| 13 Avg +0.06% | -0.20% | +0.39% | +0.80% | -0.27% | -0.06% | -0.22% | -0.16% | +0.64% | -0.64% | +0.23% | +0.16% | +0.11% |
| 14 Avg +0.02% | +0.02% | +0.02% | -0.04% | +0.28% | +0.43% | -0.31% | +0.16% | -0.39% | +0.12% | +0.52% | +0.09% | -0.62% |
| 15 Avg +0.20% | +0.31% | +0.57% | +0.42% | -0.36% | +0.68% | +0.52% | +0.42% | +0.23% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.11% | +0.27% |
| 16 Avg -0.02% | +0.39% | +0.21% | -1.58% | -0.27% | +0.29% | -0.03% | +0.06% | +0.22% | -0.05% | +0.10% | +0.34% | +0.02% |
| 17 Avg +0.10% | 0.00% | -0.19% | +0.91% | +0.37% | -0.02% | -0.05% | +0.37% | -0.31% | +0.13% | +0.12% | -0.16% | +0.02% |
| 18 Avg -0.05% | -0.14% | +0.33% | +0.46% | -0.09% | +0.37% | -0.33% | -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.40% |
| 19 Avg -0.08% | +0.08% | +0.07% | -1.05% | +0.19% | -0.18% | -0.17% | +0.12% | +0.21% | +0.01% | -0.16% | -0.11% | +0.02% |
| 20 Avg -0.02% | +0.21% | -0.07% | -0.98% | +0.02% | +0.65% | -0.17% | +0.25% | -0.04% | +0.10% | -0.10% | -0.19% | +0.08% |
| 21 Avg -0.12% | -0.23% | -0.67% | -0.18% | -0.78% | +0.04% | +0.46% | +0.11% | +0.33% | -0.51% | +0.23% | +0.58% | -0.82% |
| 22 Avg +0.14% | +0.16% | +0.30% | -0.71% | +0.29% | +0.39% | -0.21% | +0.23% | +0.04% | +0.55% | 0.00% | +0.09% | +0.61% |
| 23 Avg -0.01% | +0.22% | +0.19% | -0.81% | +0.30% | -0.26% | +0.15% | +0.24% | -0.02% | -0.47% | -0.03% | +0.35% | +0.06% |
| 24 Avg +0.25% | -0.25% | +0.59% | +2.33% | +0.50% | +0.30% | -0.11% | +0.11% | +0.05% | -0.32% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.15% |
| 25 Avg -0.09% | -0.43% | -0.21% | +0.14% | -0.25% | +0.13% | -0.91% | +0.32% | +0.02% | +0.16% | -0.29% | +0.21% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.07% | -0.21% | -0.42% | +1.75% | -0.42% | +0.59% | -0.81% | +0.66% | -0.43% | -0.10% | -0.51% | +0.11% | +0.61% |
| 27 Avg -0.01% | -0.55% | -0.61% | -0.99% | +0.67% | +0.77% | -0.13% | +0.48% | +0.19% | +0.18% | -0.21% | +0.18% | -0.05% |
| 28 Avg +0.04% | +0.43% | -0.11% | +0.22% | +0.12% | -0.27% | +0.17% | -0.46% | +0.18% | +0.02% | +0.07% | +0.27% | -0.19% |
| 29 Avg +0.04% | -0.25% | - | +0.92% | -0.03% | -0.17% | -0.22% | +0.26% | +0.09% | -0.52% | -0.14% | +0.45% | +0.09% |
| 30 Avg +0.13% | +0.48% | - | +0.51% | -0.58% | +0.02% | +1.15% | -0.41% | -0.04% | +0.63% | 0.00% | +0.14% | -0.51% |
| 31 Avg -0.18% | -0.20% | - | +0.02% | - | -0.21% | - | -0.61% | -0.10% | - | -0.31% | - | +0.12% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
