Check historical price trends and seasonality for Orange Juice Futures (ICE US) (OJ=F).
Orange Juice Futures (ICE US) (OJ=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +11.82%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 16 for 30 days) is +6.32%.
5 wins 2 losses with a win rate of 71.43%.
1) Overview:
Orange Juice Futures typically experience a bearish trend from early January, reaching a low around March 10 with an average decline of -4.7%. A strong bullish phase then begins, extending through the summer and peaking around November 25, showing an impressive average gain of +18.9%. Prices then consolidate at a high level through December, with a final push upward to +11.8% on December 31 before the cycle potentially repeats.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant buying opportunity appears in March, specifically around March 10, where the average price has declined by -4.7%. This dip represents a seasonal low point before the start of a substantial rally. Another potential, albeit less pronounced, buying opportunity may arise in April, as prices tend to consolidate after the initial decline, before the more substantial rally begins in May.
3) Summary:
Seasonality suggests a strategy of buying Orange Juice Futures around March 10 to capitalize on the subsequent bullish trend. Consider holding the position until late November, around November 25, to capture the majority of the seasonal gains. Be aware that this is based on average tendencies and individual years may vary.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2023-03-16 | 239.7000 | 2023-04-14 | 274.8500 | 35.1500 | 14.66 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-16 | 143.8500 | 2022-04-14 | 181.0500 | 37.2000 | 25.86 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-16 | 119.4000 | 2021-04-14 | 111.0000 | -8.4000 | -7.04 |
| 2020 | 2020-03-16 | 98.9000 | 2020-04-14 | 106.9500 | 8.0500 | 8.14 |
| 2018 | 2018-03-16 | 138.3000 | 2018-04-14 | 141.0500 | 2.7500 | 1.99 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-16 | 177.5000 | 2017-04-14 | 160.7500 | -16.7500 | -9.44 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-16 | 127.8500 | 2016-04-14 | 140.7000 | 12.8500 | 10.05 |
| Avg | 149.3571 | 159.4786 | 10.12 | 6.32 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.90% | Feb Total -3.77% | Mar Total +2.69% | Apr Total -0.28% | May Total +7.20% | Jun Total -1.80% | Jul Total +4.90% | Aug Total +2.40% | Sep Total +1.57% | Oct Total +0.28% | Nov Total +0.54% | Dec Total -1.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.23% | 0.00% | +0.62% | -0.09% | +1.40% | +1.27% | +0.63% | -0.29% | -0.96% | +0.51% | -0.44% | +0.77% | -0.71% |
| 2 Avg -0.08% | +0.25% | +0.48% | +0.22% | -0.99% | +0.75% | +0.20% | -0.18% | -1.16% | -0.49% | +0.33% | -0.77% | +0.40% |
| 3 Avg +0.23% | +0.43% | -0.39% | +0.25% | -1.06% | -0.07% | +1.11% | +0.90% | +0.49% | +0.98% | +0.35% | -0.16% | -0.09% |
| 4 Avg -0.09% | -0.24% | -0.69% | -0.34% | -0.48% | +0.09% | -0.97% | 0.00% | +0.41% | +0.31% | +0.80% | +0.74% | -0.64% |
| 5 Avg +0.13% | -0.18% | -0.44% | +0.35% | +0.06% | +0.93% | -0.57% | +1.19% | +0.31% | +1.24% | -0.38% | -0.10% | -0.84% |
| 6 Avg +0.25% | +0.75% | +0.33% | +0.45% | -0.33% | +0.31% | +1.15% | +0.19% | +0.63% | +0.21% | -0.68% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 7 Avg -0.04% | -0.59% | +0.25% | -0.91% | -0.56% | +0.56% | -0.57% | +0.61% | -0.39% | +0.72% | -0.02% | +0.04% | +0.41% |
| 8 Avg +0.41% | -0.42% | +0.93% | -0.34% | +0.33% | +0.13% | +0.27% | +2.77% | -0.59% | +0.46% | -0.24% | +0.58% | +1.03% |
| 9 Avg +0.01% | -0.99% | -0.14% | +0.60% | +1.83% | -0.87% | -0.15% | +0.01% | +0.22% | +0.40% | -0.62% | +0.24% | -0.42% |
| 10 Avg -0.29% | -0.65% | -0.89% | -1.20% | +0.41% | -0.01% | -0.39% | +1.17% | +0.16% | +0.09% | -0.40% | -1.01% | -0.72% |
| 11 Avg -0.27% | -0.15% | -0.85% | +0.23% | +0.41% | -1.19% | -0.73% | -0.27% | +1.02% | -1.03% | +0.48% | -0.98% | -0.18% |
| 12 Avg -0.48% | -0.25% | -0.91% | +0.55% | -0.39% | -1.27% | -0.49% | -2.07% | -0.55% | -0.85% | +0.70% | +0.13% | -0.33% |
| 13 Avg -0.24% | +0.02% | -1.45% | -0.08% | +0.68% | +0.72% | -0.57% | +0.28% | +0.24% | -0.97% | -1.24% | -0.03% | -0.48% |
| 14 Avg +0.23% | -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.07% | +0.94% | +2.10% | +0.04% | +0.37% | +0.10% | -0.39% | +0.25% | -0.77% | +0.59% |
| 15 Avg +0.31% | -0.33% | -0.07% | +0.66% | +0.64% | +1.30% | +0.31% | -0.06% | +0.47% | +0.72% | -0.33% | +0.57% | -0.13% |
| 16 Avg +0.29% | -0.35% | +1.07% | +0.13% | +0.13% | -0.25% | -0.52% | -0.24% | +0.32% | +0.60% | -0.06% | +1.50% | +1.19% |
| 17 Avg -0.29% | -0.75% | -0.18% | +0.15% | -0.53% | -0.20% | +0.10% | -0.06% | -0.60% | -0.80% | -0.62% | +0.09% | -0.09% |
| 18 Avg -0.22% | +0.42% | -0.03% | -0.68% | +0.58% | -0.48% | -1.71% | +0.31% | -0.28% | -0.42% | -0.35% | -0.46% | +0.47% |
| 19 Avg +0.20% | +0.15% | +0.19% | +1.02% | -1.37% | +0.05% | -0.41% | +0.75% | -0.18% | +0.05% | +1.00% | -0.29% | +1.40% |
| 20 Avg +0.16% | -0.45% | -0.79% | +0.54% | -0.73% | +1.18% | -0.09% | +0.03% | +0.33% | +1.15% | +0.56% | +0.89% | -0.69% |
| 21 Avg -0.10% | +0.16% | -0.83% | +0.66% | -0.29% | +0.76% | -0.80% | +0.67% | -0.27% | -0.48% | +0.21% | -0.40% | -0.54% |
| 22 Avg +0.22% | +0.19% | +0.25% | +0.57% | +0.14% | +0.90% | +0.87% | +0.63% | +0.13% | -0.57% | -0.91% | +0.23% | +0.24% |
| 23 Avg +0.16% | -0.21% | +0.72% | +0.30% | -0.83% | +0.44% | +0.26% | -0.36% | +0.97% | -0.34% | +1.49% | +0.11% | -0.71% |
| 24 Avg +0.05% | -0.09% | -0.05% | +0.58% | -0.27% | +0.44% | -0.50% | +0.44% | +0.52% | -0.24% | +0.76% | -0.79% | -0.23% |
| 25 Avg +0.14% | +0.10% | -0.92% | +0.35% | +0.69% | -0.17% | +0.56% | -0.17% | +0.40% | -0.24% | +0.07% | +0.97% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.13% | +0.68% | -0.21% | +0.24% | -0.45% | +0.97% | -0.52% | +1.06% | +0.70% | -0.20% | +0.10% | +0.39% | -1.18% |
| 27 Avg -0.06% | +0.59% | -0.43% | -1.71% | -0.01% | +0.17% | +0.28% | +0.91% | -0.68% | +0.80% | +0.31% | -0.24% | -0.69% |
| 28 Avg -0.04% | -0.18% | +0.87% | -0.85% | +0.60% | +0.47% | +0.47% | -0.74% | -0.65% | -0.41% | -0.89% | +0.30% | +0.47% |
| 29 Avg -0.03% | +0.64% | - | 0.00% | -0.54% | -0.76% | +0.54% | -0.97% | +0.76% | +0.48% | -0.34% | -0.19% | +0.10% |
| 30 Avg -0.11% | +0.43% | - | +0.28% | -0.31% | -0.83% | +0.39% | -0.72% | +0.34% | +0.25% | -0.27% | -0.79% | +0.01% |
| 31 Avg +0.20% | +0.32% | - | +0.83% | - | -0.24% | - | -1.25% | +0.21% | - | +0.67% | - | +0.87% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
