Check historical price trends and seasonality for Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) (NG=F).
Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) (NG=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +9.77%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 11 for 30 days) is +2.65%.
3 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 42.86%.
1) Overview:
Natural gas futures typically experience a strong bearish phase from early January, bottoming out around February 13 with an average loss of -13.7%. Following this low point, the market generally enters a bullish phase, gradually climbing through the spring and summer months. The most significant bullish period occurs from late November, peaking around November 28 with an average gain of +31.1%, and continuing to rise until December 31, where it gains +9.7%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most pronounced pullback period for natural gas futures occurs throughout January and into mid-February. This bearish trend, bottoming around February 13, presents a significant buying opportunity as prices are historically at their lowest point during this period. Another potential, albeit less pronounced, buying opportunity may arise in late April, as prices tend to stabilize before the bullish trend resumes in May.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to natural gas futures involves capitalizing on the significant dip in prices during January and February, aiming for an entry point around February 13. Investors should then consider holding their positions through the spring, summer, and fall, anticipating a substantial rally culminating around November 28, followed by a slight decrease until December 31. This strategy hinges on the consistent seasonal patterns observed over the past 10 years, but external factors should always be considered.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-03-11 | 4.4530 | 2025-04-09 | 3.8160 | -0.6370 | -14.30 |
| 2024 | 2024-03-11 | 1.7590 | 2024-04-09 | 1.8720 | 0.1130 | 6.42 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-11 | 4.7250 | 2022-04-09 | 6.2780 | 1.5530 | 32.87 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-11 | 2.6680 | 2021-04-09 | 2.5260 | -0.1420 | -5.32 |
| 2020 | 2020-03-11 | 1.8780 | 2020-04-09 | 1.7330 | -0.1450 | -7.72 |
| 2019 | 2019-03-11 | 2.7720 | 2019-04-09 | 2.6990 | -0.0730 | -2.63 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-11 | 1.8220 | 2016-04-09 | 1.9900 | 0.1680 | 9.22 |
| Avg | 2.8681 | 2.9877 | 0.12 | 2.65 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -6.20% | Feb Total -2.88% | Mar Total +2.63% | Apr Total +8.00% | May Total +4.57% | Jun Total +2.65% | Jul Total +0.30% | Aug Total +9.08% | Sep Total +6.29% | Oct Total +8.88% | Nov Total +4.52% | Dec Total -12.06% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.37% | 0.00% | -1.40% | +0.48% | +0.10% | -0.39% | +0.42% | -0.42% | -1.12% | +0.06% | +0.09% | -2.03% | -0.20% |
| 2 Avg -0.11% | +0.39% | +1.09% | +0.54% | -0.09% | -0.14% | +0.53% | +0.19% | -1.30% | -0.58% | -1.02% | +1.18% | -2.10% |
| 3 Avg +0.23% | -2.54% | -0.93% | +1.57% | -0.17% | +1.22% | +0.67% | -0.64% | +3.47% | +1.02% | +0.45% | -0.25% | -1.12% |
| 4 Avg +0.34% | +0.66% | -0.72% | +1.68% | -0.37% | +0.89% | -0.50% | -0.06% | +0.04% | +0.23% | +0.68% | +1.76% | -0.16% |
| 5 Avg +0.07% | -0.23% | +0.16% | +0.11% | -0.01% | +0.95% | +0.32% | -1.64% | -0.44% | -0.70% | +2.63% | -0.34% | +0.02% |
| 6 Avg -0.39% | +0.60% | -0.01% | -2.01% | -0.14% | -1.81% | +1.81% | +0.50% | +0.68% | -0.92% | -0.85% | +0.04% | -2.57% |
| 7 Avg +0.32% | +0.02% | -1.11% | -0.20% | +1.38% | +0.52% | +0.66% | +1.42% | +1.48% | -0.60% | +0.33% | +0.21% | -0.25% |
| 8 Avg -0.30% | +1.28% | -0.41% | -1.02% | -0.65% | -0.11% | -0.45% | -0.42% | -0.19% | +0.54% | -0.31% | -2.05% | +0.24% |
| 9 Avg +0.05% | +1.31% | -1.52% | +0.77% | +0.84% | +0.07% | +0.01% | -0.77% | +0.57% | +0.32% | -0.26% | -0.79% | +0.01% |
| 10 Avg +0.26% | +0.65% | -0.19% | +1.32% | -0.01% | +0.74% | -0.46% | +0.97% | -0.39% | -0.44% | -0.70% | +0.58% | +1.00% |
| 11 Avg +0.31% | +1.45% | +0.12% | -0.66% | -0.81% | +0.73% | +1.73% | +0.63% | +0.69% | -0.18% | -0.40% | +1.17% | -0.74% |
| 12 Avg -0.03% | +2.51% | +0.08% | -1.32% | +0.43% | -0.39% | -0.85% | -0.34% | -0.73% | +1.93% | +0.54% | -0.87% | -1.40% |
| 13 Avg -0.02% | -2.13% | -1.35% | +0.89% | +0.71% | -0.38% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.01% | +0.47% | +0.70% | +1.72% | -0.36% |
| 14 Avg +0.09% | +0.88% | +1.00% | -0.22% | -0.36% | +0.05% | -1.50% | +0.27% | +1.26% | +1.14% | -1.70% | +1.19% | -0.90% |
| 15 Avg -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.04% | -1.73% | -1.21% | -0.25% | +1.02% | +0.04% | -0.08% | -0.17% | +0.53% | -0.66% | +0.62% |
| 16 Avg -0.20% | -1.58% | +0.90% | +0.58% | +0.62% | +0.03% | +0.50% | -0.32% | +0.02% | -0.48% | -1.53% | -0.11% | -1.02% |
| 17 Avg -0.36% | -0.30% | -0.54% | -0.48% | +0.57% | +1.52% | -0.43% | -0.80% | -0.05% | -1.52% | -0.40% | -1.30% | -0.58% |
| 18 Avg +0.25% | -1.57% | +0.53% | -0.74% | +1.41% | +1.25% | +0.20% | +1.59% | +0.04% | +0.37% | -2.32% | +0.77% | +1.45% |
| 19 Avg -0.20% | -1.91% | +0.39% | +1.20% | -0.60% | -0.23% | -0.68% | -0.12% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.59% | +1.17% | -0.97% |
| 20 Avg -0.09% | -1.26% | -0.55% | -1.47% | +0.81% | +1.03% | -1.13% | +1.05% | -0.45% | +0.20% | +1.54% | +0.10% | -0.96% |
| 21 Avg -0.20% | -0.60% | -0.08% | +0.18% | -1.60% | -1.23% | +0.09% | -0.62% | +1.05% | -2.21% | -0.83% | +1.47% | +1.99% |
| 22 Avg -0.12% | -1.12% | +0.21% | -0.52% | +0.93% | +0.01% | -0.13% | +1.55% | -0.77% | -1.25% | 0.00% | -0.67% | +0.28% |
| 23 Avg +0.20% | +1.67% | -0.23% | -0.63% | -0.81% | -0.12% | -0.56% | -0.24% | -0.39% | +2.33% | +0.34% | +1.34% | -0.34% |
| 24 Avg -0.03% | +1.04% | -0.57% | +0.95% | -1.32% | -0.42% | +0.34% | -0.79% | +0.42% | +0.80% | +0.69% | -0.41% | -1.03% |
| 25 Avg +0.09% | +0.18% | +0.14% | +0.11% | +0.08% | -0.11% | -1.11% | +0.69% | +0.02% | +0.03% | +1.91% | +0.23% | -1.14% |
| 26 Avg +0.28% | +1.33% | +0.13% | -0.33% | +0.03% | 0.00% | -0.26% | -0.51% | +0.74% | -0.62% | +0.51% | +0.85% | +1.49% |
| 27 Avg +1.10% | +4.90% | +0.79% | +0.64% | +2.40% | +0.56% | +2.61% | -1.56% | +0.94% | +2.57% | -0.32% | -0.49% | +0.21% |
| 28 Avg +0.21% | -4.26% | +1.22% | +0.56% | +1.08% | +0.35% | +0.11% | +0.78% | +1.11% | +0.88% | +0.81% | +1.92% | -2.02% |
| 29 Avg +1.36% | -0.28% | - | +0.11% | +4.73% | +0.72% | +1.44% | +0.15% | +1.64% | +3.04% | +1.27% | +0.12% | +2.03% |
| 30 Avg -0.25% | -6.68% | - | +2.10% | +0.03% | +0.20% | -1.56% | +0.43% | +0.13% | +0.12% | +5.75% | -1.33% | -1.92% |
| 31 Avg -0.14% | -0.42% | - | +0.19% | - | -0.69% | - | -0.51% | +0.76% | - | +1.31% | - | -1.62% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
