Check historical price trends and seasonality for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH).
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) average YTD return over the past 10 years is -2.18%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -15.41%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. The stock tends to rally from early January, reaching a peak around February 19 with an average gain of +4.8%. A significant bearish phase then follows, starting in March and bottoming out around May 13 with an average loss of -11.1%. The stock then experiences a period of consolidation, with a slight downward tendency towards the end of the year, reaching -2.2% on December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant buying opportunity appears to be around May 13, as this is historically the point of maximum drawdown, averaging -11.1%. This pullback likely reflects the end of the peak booking season for cruises. Another, less pronounced, buying opportunity may arise around December 31, where the stock tends to be down -2.2%. This could be due to end-of-year tax-loss selling.
3) Summary:
A seasonal investment strategy for NCLH could involve accumulating shares around May 13 to capitalize on the historically low point. Consider holding these shares until around February 19 to capture the average seasonal gains. Be mindful of broader market conditions and company-specific news that could override these historical tendencies.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 26.4400 | 2025-03-16 | 19.1900 | -7.2500 | -27.42 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 17.2500 | 2024-03-15 | 19.4000 | 2.1500 | 12.46 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 58.5800 | 2020-03-15 | 11.1000 | -47.4800 | -81.05 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 45.8500 | 2019-03-16 | 55.5500 | 9.7000 | 21.16 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 57.3900 | 2018-03-16 | 56.1200 | -1.2700 | -2.21 |
| Avg | 41.1020 | 32.2720 | -8.83 | -15.41 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.44% | Feb Total -0.70% | Mar Total -8.57% | Apr Total +3.28% | May Total -1.54% | Jun Total +2.65% | Jul Total +1.07% | Aug Total +1.36% | Sep Total +1.40% | Oct Total +1.29% | Nov Total +3.34% | Dec Total +3.21% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.16% | 0.00% | +1.44% | +0.25% | -1.14% | -1.49% | +1.70% | +0.13% | -2.38% | -0.35% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.05% |
| 2 Avg -0.26% | -0.39% | -0.51% | +0.55% | -1.89% | +0.09% | +0.89% | -0.17% | -1.95% | -0.25% | -0.23% | -0.70% | +1.41% |
| 3 Avg -0.21% | -0.82% | -0.82% | -0.37% | -1.61% | +0.09% | +0.24% | +0.09% | -0.09% | +0.10% | -0.82% | +1.22% | +0.27% |
| 4 Avg +0.28% | +0.96% | +0.65% | -1.40% | -0.57% | -0.10% | +1.30% | 0.00% | +0.70% | +0.35% | +2.43% | -1.74% | +0.81% |
| 5 Avg -0.01% | +0.12% | -1.17% | -2.36% | +0.81% | -2.74% | +1.61% | +0.94% | +0.53% | +0.01% | +0.20% | +1.78% | +0.16% |
| 6 Avg +0.13% | -0.14% | +0.57% | -0.94% | +1.74% | -1.02% | +0.27% | -1.57% | +0.88% | +0.07% | +0.34% | -0.10% | +1.42% |
| 7 Avg +0.06% | +0.46% | +0.31% | -1.76% | +0.24% | +0.26% | +0.88% | -0.40% | -0.36% | +0.37% | -0.31% | +0.83% | +0.20% |
| 8 Avg +0.55% | +0.30% | -0.34% | -0.11% | +0.52% | +1.12% | +1.63% | +0.61% | +1.00% | -0.87% | -0.15% | +0.84% | +2.11% |
| 9 Avg -0.19% | +0.68% | -0.26% | -1.84% | +2.72% | -1.07% | -2.11% | +0.49% | -2.01% | +0.97% | +1.18% | +0.37% | -1.40% |
| 10 Avg -0.15% | +0.50% | -1.65% | -0.15% | -1.27% | -0.79% | -1.97% | +1.29% | +2.08% | +0.37% | -1.28% | +0.50% | +0.59% |
| 11 Avg -0.33% | +0.67% | -0.32% | -2.26% | +0.20% | -1.69% | -2.05% | -0.35% | +0.73% | +1.32% | -0.95% | +0.20% | +0.57% |
| 12 Avg -0.02% | +0.54% | +0.67% | -3.54% | -0.97% | -1.18% | +2.70% | +0.92% | -0.24% | +0.55% | +1.07% | -0.68% | -0.10% |
| 13 Avg -0.23% | -0.19% | +0.27% | +1.01% | -0.46% | -0.28% | -0.97% | -1.42% | +0.37% | +0.25% | -1.28% | +0.54% | -0.56% |
| 14 Avg +0.21% | +0.40% | +0.29% | -0.28% | +0.59% | +1.33% | -1.37% | -1.44% | +0.07% | +1.44% | +0.23% | +1.17% | +0.12% |
| 15 Avg +0.34% | -0.93% | +1.32% | +0.47% | -1.03% | +0.52% | +0.65% | +1.86% | +0.47% | -0.42% | +0.14% | +0.54% | +0.44% |
| 16 Avg -0.16% | +0.52% | +0.68% | +0.55% | -0.30% | +0.23% | -0.20% | -1.44% | -0.16% | -0.08% | +0.14% | -0.88% | -1.01% |
| 17 Avg +0.17% | +1.08% | +0.16% | -0.15% | +1.63% | +0.63% | -0.28% | -0.14% | -1.23% | +0.13% | +0.08% | -0.16% | +0.31% |
| 18 Avg -0.21% | -0.19% | -0.43% | -2.70% | -0.07% | +1.79% | +0.08% | +1.09% | -0.04% | -0.49% | -0.16% | -0.82% | -0.53% |
| 19 Avg -0.20% | -0.67% | +0.86% | +1.01% | +0.33% | -1.03% | -0.57% | -0.58% | -0.48% | -0.01% | -1.36% | -0.07% | +0.12% |
| 20 Avg -0.01% | +0.27% | -1.18% | +0.91% | -1.44% | +0.24% | +0.19% | +1.16% | -0.15% | +0.09% | +0.55% | -1.12% | +0.40% |
| 21 Avg +0.11% | -0.74% | -0.94% | +0.28% | +0.45% | +0.55% | +0.33% | +0.33% | +0.36% | -1.29% | +0.60% | +0.70% | +0.72% |
| 22 Avg -0.25% | -0.85% | +1.12% | -0.89% | -0.45% | -0.02% | -0.80% | -0.72% | +0.10% | -0.01% | +0.03% | +0.34% | -0.82% |
| 23 Avg +0.29% | +0.10% | -0.11% | -0.39% | +1.93% | -1.09% | +0.50% | +0.31% | +1.47% | -0.04% | +0.45% | +0.38% | +0.03% |
| 24 Avg +0.32% | -0.25% | +0.22% | +4.16% | -0.64% | -0.25% | -0.26% | -0.68% | +1.71% | -0.44% | -0.18% | +0.60% | -0.16% |
| 25 Avg +0.34% | +0.52% | -1.27% | +2.41% | +0.13% | +0.90% | +0.02% | -0.62% | +0.12% | +0.47% | +0.43% | +0.94% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg -0.17% | +0.32% | -0.33% | -0.67% | -0.82% | +2.79% | -0.40% | +0.27% | -1.55% | +0.28% | -1.19% | -0.98% | +0.20% |
| 27 Avg +0.07% | -1.48% | +0.85% | -2.09% | +1.09% | +2.46% | -0.10% | -0.45% | +1.32% | +0.83% | -0.88% | +0.15% | -0.82% |
| 28 Avg +0.41% | +0.53% | -0.79% | +0.09% | +2.26% | -1.01% | +0.72% | +1.52% | +0.83% | +0.96% | +0.16% | -0.22% | -0.14% |
| 29 Avg +0.16% | +0.58% | - | +0.76% | +2.32% | -0.61% | -0.28% | -0.20% | -0.14% | -1.20% | +0.32% | +0.68% | -0.45% |
| 30 Avg -0.43% | -0.04% | - | +0.01% | -1.03% | +0.17% | +0.29% | -0.74% | -0.47% | -1.67% | +0.15% | -0.95% | -0.46% |
| 31 Avg +0.48% | +0.59% | - | +0.86% | - | -0.33% | - | +0.95% | -0.11% | - | +1.65% | - | -0.20% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
