Check historical price trends and seasonality for Vail Resorts (MTN).
Vail Resorts (MTN) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +2.55%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 3 for 60 days) is -1.48%.
5 wins 2 losses with a win rate of 71.43%.
1) Overview:
Vail Resorts exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. A bearish phase typically occurs from early January through late March, culminating in a significant dip around March 24 with an average decline of -5.9%. A strong bullish phase then emerges, starting in June and extending through late November, peaking around November 26 with an average gain of +9.2%. The bullish momentum slows down in December, with a more modest average gain of +2.5% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most pronounced pullback period for Vail Resorts historically occurs between January and late March, presenting a potential buying opportunity. The most significant dip tends to materialize around March 24, with an average decline of -5.9%. This decline is likely driven by the end of the ski season approaching, creating a contrarian buying opportunity before the summer and fall months bring positive momentum.
3) Summary:
An investment strategy for Vail Resorts could involve capitalizing on its seasonal trends. Consider establishing a position during the late March pullback, around March 24, to take advantage of the subsequent bullish phase. Monitor the stock closely as it approaches late November, around November 26, as this period has historically marked a peak before a period of consolidation.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-03-03 | 158.4400 | 2025-05-01 | 139.8200 | -18.6200 | -11.75 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-03 | 239.0500 | 2023-05-01 | 243.5900 | 4.5400 | 1.90 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-03 | 251.8800 | 2022-05-01 | 254.1600 | 2.2800 | 0.91 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-03 | 306.0000 | 2021-05-01 | 325.1600 | 19.1600 | 6.26 |
| 2020 | 2020-03-03 | 201.3000 | 2020-05-01 | 167.9100 | -33.3900 | -16.59 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-03 | 184.1600 | 2017-05-01 | 198.8700 | 14.7100 | 7.99 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-03 | 128.4800 | 2016-05-01 | 129.6400 | 1.1600 | 0.90 |
| Avg | 209.9014 | 208.4500 | -1.45 | -1.48 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -2.04% | Feb Total -0.22% | Mar Total -1.37% | Apr Total +0.97% | May Total +4.11% | Jun Total -0.82% | Jul Total +2.04% | Aug Total +3.52% | Sep Total -2.10% | Oct Total +0.09% | Nov Total +5.06% | Dec Total -3.81% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.16% | 0.00% | +0.59% | +0.34% | -0.56% | +0.04% | +0.29% | +0.50% | -0.24% | +0.27% | +0.45% | +0.43% | -0.25% |
| 2 Avg -0.11% | -0.65% | -0.48% | +0.28% | +0.09% | +0.16% | +0.46% | +0.31% | -0.33% | -0.26% | -0.78% | -0.04% | -0.13% |
| 3 Avg -0.11% | -0.09% | +0.12% | -0.95% | -0.61% | -0.24% | +0.60% | -0.16% | -0.10% | -0.48% | -0.19% | +0.61% | +0.16% |
| 4 Avg +0.05% | -0.13% | +0.19% | -1.17% | -0.89% | +0.26% | +0.73% | 0.00% | +0.13% | +0.53% | +0.48% | +0.03% | +0.45% |
| 5 Avg -0.16% | -0.15% | -0.28% | +0.32% | +0.08% | -0.59% | -0.53% | -0.14% | -0.74% | -0.45% | -0.31% | +0.95% | -0.06% |
| 6 Avg +0.36% | +1.13% | +0.18% | +0.45% | +0.70% | -0.02% | +0.05% | -0.23% | +0.48% | +0.63% | +0.20% | +0.78% | 0.00% |
| 7 Avg -0.13% | -0.68% | +0.02% | -1.10% | -0.05% | +0.25% | +0.51% | -0.12% | +0.20% | +0.84% | -0.25% | +0.28% | -1.44% |
| 8 Avg +0.28% | +0.01% | -0.19% | +1.70% | -0.03% | +0.56% | -0.35% | +0.09% | +1.07% | -0.54% | -0.16% | +0.27% | +0.90% |
| 9 Avg -0.09% | +0.36% | +0.05% | -1.09% | +1.50% | -0.17% | -1.43% | +0.18% | -0.44% | -0.51% | -0.23% | +0.29% | +0.43% |
| 10 Avg +0.26% | -0.23% | +0.31% | -0.43% | -0.14% | +0.72% | +0.72% | +0.54% | +0.98% | -0.07% | -0.39% | +0.23% | +0.85% |
| 11 Avg -0.01% | -0.65% | -0.23% | -0.08% | +0.39% | -0.77% | -1.02% | 0.00% | +0.43% | -0.12% | +0.16% | +0.98% | +0.83% |
| 12 Avg +0.13% | +0.08% | +0.84% | -0.79% | -0.38% | -0.54% | +1.11% | +0.39% | +0.40% | +0.14% | +0.41% | +0.12% | -0.18% |
| 13 Avg -0.06% | +0.02% | +0.27% | +0.96% | +0.10% | -0.02% | -1.14% | -0.38% | +0.33% | -0.56% | +0.34% | -0.18% | -0.44% |
| 14 Avg +0.15% | +0.81% | +0.08% | -0.13% | +0.77% | +0.70% | +0.09% | -0.40% | -0.05% | +0.56% | -0.12% | -0.35% | -0.16% |
| 15 Avg -0.04% | -1.03% | +0.40% | +0.12% | +0.04% | +0.38% | +0.28% | +0.65% | +0.20% | -0.13% | -0.68% | +0.41% | -1.13% |
| 16 Avg +0.10% | -0.23% | +0.52% | -0.04% | -0.89% | +0.03% | -0.06% | +0.34% | +0.11% | +0.14% | +1.06% | -0.26% | +0.43% |
| 17 Avg +0.01% | -0.31% | -0.56% | +0.91% | +0.89% | -0.35% | +0.04% | -0.08% | -0.53% | +0.41% | +0.03% | -0.25% | -0.07% |
| 18 Avg +0.09% | +0.35% | -0.43% | +0.27% | -0.21% | +1.16% | -0.06% | -0.15% | +0.03% | +0.22% | +0.15% | +0.10% | -0.31% |
| 19 Avg -0.16% | -0.05% | +0.51% | -0.05% | -0.34% | 0.00% | -0.16% | -0.01% | +0.07% | -0.21% | -0.58% | -0.24% | -0.85% |
| 20 Avg -0.21% | +0.12% | +0.31% | -1.01% | -0.63% | -0.05% | -0.01% | +0.45% | -0.25% | +0.01% | +0.25% | -0.54% | -1.12% |
| 21 Avg +0.07% | +0.26% | -0.10% | -0.37% | -0.70% | -0.07% | -0.15% | +0.58% | +0.58% | -0.57% | +0.17% | +1.04% | +0.12% |
| 22 Avg +0.19% | -0.50% | +0.19% | -0.32% | +0.65% | -0.09% | +0.48% | +0.65% | -0.03% | +0.13% | +0.61% | +0.90% | -0.35% |
| 23 Avg +0.07% | +0.31% | -0.67% | -1.19% | +0.70% | -0.45% | +0.54% | +0.23% | +0.59% | +0.55% | +0.21% | -0.03% | 0.00% |
| 24 Avg -0.04% | -0.07% | +0.58% | -0.49% | -0.26% | +0.55% | -0.66% | -0.79% | +0.31% | +0.72% | -0.33% | +0.31% | -0.39% |
| 25 Avg +0.07% | -0.31% | -0.68% | +0.50% | +0.27% | +0.49% | -0.76% | +0.65% | +0.01% | -0.42% | +0.19% | +0.96% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg -0.11% | +0.05% | -0.97% | +0.56% | -0.44% | +0.96% | -0.27% | +0.22% | -0.50% | -0.81% | -0.48% | +0.05% | +0.28% |
| 27 Avg -0.03% | -0.56% | -0.45% | +0.13% | +1.37% | +0.91% | -0.26% | -0.67% | +0.54% | -0.35% | -0.25% | -0.40% | -0.36% |
| 28 Avg -0.04% | +0.01% | -0.35% | +0.52% | -0.24% | +0.49% | -0.03% | +0.24% | +0.05% | -0.19% | -0.48% | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 29 Avg -0.23% | -0.16% | - | +0.70% | +0.20% | -0.63% | -0.26% | -0.21% | +0.29% | -0.75% | -0.42% | -0.90% | -0.40% |
| 30 Avg -0.12% | +0.06% | - | -0.15% | -0.41% | +0.18% | +0.40% | -0.37% | +0.01% | -0.81% | +0.29% | -0.26% | -0.24% |
| 31 Avg +0.13% | +0.18% | - | +0.20% | - | +0.26% | - | -0.28% | -0.06% | - | +0.76% | - | -0.15% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
