Check historical price trends and seasonality for Marathon Petroleum (MPC).
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +16.30%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 3 for 60 days) is -4.73%.
2 wins 5 losses with a win rate of 28.57%.
1) Overview:
Marathon Petroleum tends to experience a bullish phase from early in the year through early June, peaking around June 7 with an average gain of +10.6%. Following this peak, the stock typically experiences a period of consolidation and slight pullback through March 18, where it only gains +0.4%. A strong bullish trend then emerges, continuing through the end of the year, culminating in significant gains around November 24 (+20.8%) and December 31 (+16.3%).
2) Buy-the-dip points:
A potential buying opportunity arises in mid-March, specifically around March 18, as the stock shows minimal gains (+0.4%) after the initial bullish start to the year. This could be due to profit-taking or market corrections after the early gains. Another opportunity may arise in early December, as the gains slow down before the year-end rally.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, consider initiating long positions in Marathon Petroleum around March 18, capitalizing on the relatively weak performance during that period. Holding through the end of the year could potentially yield substantial returns, especially with the significant gains typically observed around November 24 and December 31. However, be mindful of broader market conditions and company-specific news that could influence these seasonal trends.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-03-03 | 145.8200 | 2025-05-01 | 137.7200 | -8.1000 | -5.55 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-03 | 133.5000 | 2023-05-01 | 122.4600 | -11.0400 | -8.27 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-03 | 77.3700 | 2022-05-01 | 87.2600 | 9.8900 | 12.78 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-03 | 56.0700 | 2021-05-01 | 55.6500 | -0.4200 | -0.75 |
| 2020 | 2020-03-03 | 45.1700 | 2020-05-01 | 29.2400 | -15.9300 | -35.27 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-03 | 51.2700 | 2017-05-01 | 50.8600 | -0.4100 | -0.80 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-03 | 37.3200 | 2016-05-01 | 39.0800 | 1.7600 | 4.72 |
| Avg | 78.0743 | 74.6100 | -3.46 | -4.73 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.61% | Feb Total -0.73% | Mar Total +0.09% | Apr Total +3.25% | May Total +0.73% | Jun Total +1.80% | Jul Total +5.16% | Aug Total +1.55% | Sep Total +1.30% | Oct Total +2.07% | Nov Total +3.77% | Dec Total -1.76% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.17% | 0.00% | -0.21% | +1.34% | -0.62% | -1.41% | +1.84% | +0.48% | -0.74% | -0.44% | +0.13% | +1.18% | +0.49% |
| 2 Avg +0.24% | +0.98% | +0.17% | +0.45% | +0.23% | +0.44% | +0.59% | +0.21% | -0.70% | +0.49% | -0.04% | -0.45% | +0.47% |
| 3 Avg +0.05% | +0.23% | -0.93% | +0.33% | -1.55% | +0.30% | +0.42% | +0.41% | +0.78% | -0.32% | +1.43% | +0.12% | -0.67% |
| 4 Avg -0.13% | -0.07% | +0.55% | -0.08% | -0.92% | -0.11% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.67% | +0.15% | -0.01% | -0.38% | +0.05% |
| 5 Avg +0.01% | +0.73% | -0.20% | -1.36% | +0.50% | +0.49% | +0.57% | -0.91% | -0.28% | -0.19% | +0.51% | +0.66% | -0.44% |
| 6 Avg -0.14% | -0.08% | -0.60% | -0.42% | +1.26% | -0.35% | +0.51% | -1.32% | +0.01% | -0.03% | -0.11% | +0.10% | -0.66% |
| 7 Avg +0.24% | +0.58% | -0.03% | -0.71% | +0.20% | +0.35% | +0.95% | +0.27% | -0.01% | +0.29% | -0.08% | +0.85% | +0.20% |
| 8 Avg +0.01% | -0.31% | -0.48% | -0.42% | +0.77% | +0.54% | +0.19% | -0.09% | +0.65% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.73% | +0.27% |
| 9 Avg +0.01% | -0.09% | +0.44% | -1.13% | +1.01% | -0.56% | -0.32% | -0.04% | -0.27% | -0.11% | +0.15% | +1.48% | -0.48% |
| 10 Avg +0.30% | -0.08% | +1.13% | +0.80% | -0.06% | +0.35% | -0.50% | +1.03% | +0.49% | -0.44% | -0.09% | +0.80% | +0.19% |
| 11 Avg -0.03% | +1.01% | +0.15% | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.28% | -1.03% | +0.08% | +0.61% | +0.10% | -0.52% | +0.42% | -0.56% |
| 12 Avg -0.13% | +1.16% | +0.53% | -2.77% | -0.37% | +0.23% | -0.50% | +0.21% | +0.06% | +0.35% | +0.39% | -1.23% | +0.31% |
| 13 Avg +0.06% | -1.04% | +1.08% | +1.27% | +0.26% | -0.17% | -0.84% | -0.47% | -0.10% | -0.11% | +0.23% | +0.79% | -0.20% |
| 14 Avg +0.05% | +1.04% | +0.26% | +0.06% | +0.66% | +0.27% | -0.67% | -0.55% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.20% | +0.43% | -0.57% |
| 15 Avg -0.26% | -1.05% | -0.07% | -0.20% | -1.73% | -0.22% | +0.10% | +0.42% | -0.87% | +0.23% | -0.21% | +0.06% | +0.45% |
| 16 Avg -0.26% | -0.42% | +0.17% | -1.32% | -0.47% | -0.04% | -0.35% | -0.25% | +0.01% | +0.10% | -0.34% | +0.31% | -0.56% |
| 17 Avg +0.25% | +0.27% | -0.23% | +0.24% | +2.01% | +1.38% | -0.78% | -0.01% | -0.05% | +0.28% | +0.67% | -0.17% | -0.55% |
| 18 Avg +0.01% | -0.06% | -0.73% | -1.77% | -0.15% | +1.25% | +0.26% | +0.69% | +0.03% | +0.48% | +0.75% | -0.28% | -0.39% |
| 19 Avg -0.17% | +0.45% | +0.46% | +0.48% | -0.35% | -0.49% | -0.01% | +0.41% | -0.14% | -0.31% | -0.90% | -1.25% | -0.34% |
| 20 Avg +0.19% | -0.06% | -0.02% | +2.06% | -0.08% | +0.71% | +0.39% | +0.21% | -0.65% | -0.12% | +0.58% | -0.79% | +0.05% |
| 21 Avg +0.11% | -0.82% | -0.31% | +0.46% | -0.38% | -0.45% | +0.79% | +0.58% | -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.08% | +1.46% | +0.24% |
| 22 Avg +0.29% | +0.72% | +0.79% | -0.39% | +0.85% | -0.16% | -0.22% | +0.08% | +0.26% | +0.39% | +0.81% | +0.78% | -0.37% |
| 23 Avg +0.07% | +0.39% | +0.14% | -1.94% | +0.98% | -0.55% | -0.09% | +0.22% | +1.14% | -0.69% | -0.22% | +0.70% | +0.79% |
| 24 Avg +0.14% | -0.23% | +0.01% | +0.40% | +0.46% | +0.50% | -0.97% | +0.51% | +1.22% | +0.22% | -0.53% | +0.41% | -0.34% |
| 25 Avg +0.21% | -0.11% | -0.60% | +2.29% | -0.43% | -0.47% | -0.15% | +0.41% | +0.33% | +1.08% | +0.39% | -0.28% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.32% | +0.57% | -0.46% | +1.56% | +0.36% | +0.22% | +0.42% | +1.53% | -0.55% | -0.35% | -0.07% | -0.09% | +0.69% |
| 27 Avg -0.05% | -1.07% | -0.80% | +0.08% | +0.59% | +0.66% | -0.48% | +0.06% | +0.12% | +0.82% | -0.69% | -0.18% | +0.31% |
| 28 Avg +0.15% | +0.12% | -0.93% | -0.09% | +1.26% | -0.73% | +1.20% | +0.27% | +1.02% | +1.14% | -0.52% | -0.14% | -0.76% |
| 29 Avg +0.11% | +0.03% | - | +0.29% | +1.25% | -0.23% | -0.05% | +1.01% | +0.52% | -1.29% | 0.00% | -0.48% | +0.12% |
| 30 Avg -0.12% | +0.27% | - | +0.68% | -2.18% | -0.28% | +0.58% | -0.26% | +0.17% | -0.27% | +0.31% | -0.31% | +0.01% |
| 31 Avg -0.06% | -0.46% | - | +0.13% | - | -0.49% | - | 0.00% | -0.60% | - | +0.51% | - | +0.48% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
