Check historical price trends and seasonality for Macy's (M).
Macy's (M) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +3.76%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -6.98%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Macy's exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. The stock tends to decline significantly from early March through July, reaching its lowest point around May 13 with an average drop of -15.9%. A strong bullish phase then emerges starting in November, peaking around November 18 with an average gain of +9.9%, followed by a more moderate increase through the end of the year, ending on December 31 with +3.7%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most pronounced dip occurs from March through May, presenting a potential buying opportunity. The steepest decline centers around May 13, with an average drop of -15.9%. Another, less severe, pullback occurs in July. These declines could be attributed to weaker retail sales data or broader market corrections during these periods, with rebounds anticipated as the holiday shopping season approaches.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach to Macy's stock might involve accumulating shares during the significant dip around May 13. The data suggests holding through the bullish period that culminates around November 18, capitalizing on the holiday shopping season. Investors should consider external factors and broader market conditions when making investment decisions.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 13.8700 | 2025-03-16 | 13.0800 | -0.7900 | -5.70 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 18.1700 | 2024-03-15 | 21.1900 | 3.0200 | 16.62 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 17.5300 | 2020-03-15 | 8.0300 | -9.5000 | -54.19 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 24.4800 | 2019-03-16 | 23.7100 | -0.7700 | -3.15 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 25.9200 | 2018-03-16 | 28.9000 | 2.9800 | 11.50 |
| Avg | 19.9940 | 18.9820 | -1.01 | -6.98 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.53% | Feb Total -0.56% | Mar Total -10.75% | Apr Total -0.25% | May Total -1.63% | Jun Total +2.39% | Jul Total +0.18% | Aug Total -4.47% | Sep Total +1.21% | Oct Total +5.10% | Nov Total +17.18% | Dec Total +1.05% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.25% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.89% | -1.37% | -1.27% | +0.50% | -0.65% | -1.72% | +0.26% | +0.22% | +1.14% | +0.81% |
| 2 Avg +0.30% | +0.09% | -0.54% | +2.09% | -0.10% | +1.35% | +2.38% | -0.29% | -1.83% | +0.41% | -1.17% | -0.14% | +1.29% |
| 3 Avg +0.60% | -0.90% | +1.61% | -0.57% | +0.05% | +0.27% | +1.07% | +0.89% | +1.17% | +2.15% | +0.26% | +1.95% | -0.76% |
| 4 Avg +0.21% | +0.70% | +0.15% | +0.03% | +0.44% | -0.53% | +0.55% | 0.00% | -0.75% | +0.84% | +0.91% | -0.67% | +0.82% |
| 5 Avg +0.02% | -1.39% | -0.41% | -1.00% | -0.22% | -0.85% | +1.73% | +1.20% | +0.41% | -0.43% | +0.04% | +2.13% | -1.02% |
| 6 Avg -0.15% | +1.22% | -0.67% | -1.18% | +1.54% | -1.01% | -0.31% | -1.54% | +0.75% | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.28% | +0.06% |
| 7 Avg -0.04% | +0.30% | -0.39% | -1.23% | -0.72% | -0.18% | +0.69% | -0.57% | +0.35% | +0.38% | -0.23% | +0.22% | +0.83% |
| 8 Avg +0.23% | +0.28% | -0.21% | +1.84% | +0.13% | +0.15% | +0.59% | +0.54% | +1.01% | -0.72% | +0.52% | -1.14% | -0.20% |
| 9 Avg +0.19% | -0.74% | +0.20% | -0.42% | +2.90% | +0.04% | -0.33% | -0.03% | -1.54% | +0.83% | -0.44% | +1.87% | -0.02% |
| 10 Avg -0.22% | -1.64% | -0.39% | -0.31% | -0.01% | -0.84% | -1.06% | -0.16% | +0.39% | -0.20% | -0.34% | +1.37% | +0.54% |
| 11 Avg -0.08% | +1.86% | -0.61% | -1.52% | -0.09% | -4.26% | -1.25% | +0.19% | +2.39% | +0.32% | -0.05% | +0.38% | +1.64% |
| 12 Avg -0.05% | +0.66% | +0.80% | -0.87% | -0.69% | -0.32% | +0.98% | +0.11% | +0.68% | -0.17% | +0.49% | -0.99% | -1.32% |
| 13 Avg -0.46% | -0.43% | +0.52% | +0.43% | -0.70% | -0.32% | -2.24% | -0.58% | +0.18% | -0.58% | +0.06% | -0.61% | -1.20% |
| 14 Avg -0.23% | -0.56% | +0.02% | -0.50% | +0.05% | +1.42% | -0.89% | -0.46% | -0.83% | -0.17% | -0.67% | +0.61% | -0.77% |
| 15 Avg +0.05% | -1.00% | +0.95% | +0.94% | -0.74% | +0.34% | +0.17% | -0.83% | -1.66% | +0.23% | +1.11% | +1.53% | -0.42% |
| 16 Avg +0.08% | -0.64% | +0.07% | -0.94% | +0.15% | +0.33% | +0.47% | -0.68% | +0.96% | +0.69% | +0.54% | +1.62% | -1.58% |
| 17 Avg +0.25% | +0.13% | -0.30% | +0.66% | +0.55% | +1.59% | -0.97% | -0.05% | -1.02% | -0.98% | +0.27% | +2.78% | +0.41% |
| 18 Avg +0.16% | +0.20% | -0.23% | -1.01% | +0.05% | -0.91% | -0.16% | +0.39% | -0.70% | -0.66% | +1.93% | +2.19% | +0.84% |
| 19 Avg -0.06% | -0.21% | +0.57% | +1.15% | +0.52% | -1.11% | -0.51% | +0.74% | +1.46% | -0.11% | -0.75% | -1.79% | -0.67% |
| 20 Avg -0.49% | -0.44% | +0.05% | -2.20% | -1.38% | -1.10% | -0.20% | +0.44% | -0.05% | -1.11% | +0.97% | -0.48% | -0.41% |
| 21 Avg -0.04% | -0.22% | -1.81% | -0.87% | -0.63% | +1.08% | -0.10% | +1.32% | -1.49% | -0.34% | +1.16% | +0.93% | +0.49% |
| 22 Avg -0.19% | +0.99% | +0.08% | -1.66% | -1.46% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.34% | -1.34% | -0.09% | +1.30% | +1.79% | -1.23% |
| 23 Avg +0.03% | +0.43% | +0.57% | -4.34% | +0.57% | -0.64% | -0.31% | +0.56% | +0.84% | +0.17% | -0.15% | +1.30% | +1.41% |
| 24 Avg +0.36% | +1.71% | +0.29% | +1.85% | +0.39% | -0.17% | +0.78% | -0.39% | 0.00% | -0.25% | +0.34% | +0.17% | -0.42% |
| 25 Avg +0.43% | +1.24% | +0.18% | +2.06% | -0.60% | +0.49% | -0.25% | +0.69% | -0.09% | +0.12% | +0.53% | +0.83% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.29% | +1.29% | -0.73% | -1.25% | -0.06% | +4.21% | -0.26% | -0.09% | -1.23% | +0.09% | -0.69% | -0.23% | +2.42% |
| 27 Avg +0.39% | +0.36% | +0.15% | -0.19% | +1.94% | +3.20% | +0.08% | -0.26% | -0.05% | +0.95% | -1.38% | +0.47% | -0.59% |
| 28 Avg +0.24% | -0.85% | -0.41% | +0.46% | +1.39% | -0.98% | -0.01% | +0.61% | +0.67% | +0.95% | +0.03% | +0.17% | +0.85% |
| 29 Avg -0.06% | -0.45% | - | +0.51% | -1.05% | -0.89% | +0.73% | +0.07% | -0.03% | -0.93% | +0.55% | +0.91% | -0.05% |
| 30 Avg -0.26% | +0.05% | - | -0.43% | -1.12% | -0.32% | +0.69% | -0.16% | -0.64% | -0.31% | +0.20% | -0.87% | +0.10% |
| 31 Avg -0.63% | -0.51% | - | -1.40% | - | -0.27% | - | -0.49% | -0.77% | - | -0.18% | - | -0.78% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
