Check historical price trends and seasonality for CarMax (KMX).
CarMax (KMX) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +2.87%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 3 for 60 days) is -7.22%.
3 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 42.86%.
1) Overview:
CarMax's seasonality shows a strong bullish tendency from early in the year, starting with a climb in early February, reaching a peak around February 15 (+4.8%). A significant bearish phase then follows, extending from mid-February to late March, bottoming out around March 23 (-6.6%). The stock then experiences a strong bullish trend from late May through July, peaking around July 29 (+12.2%), followed by a decline through October, before recovering to end the year around December 31 (+2.8%).
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most pronounced dip occurs in March, with the lowest point around March 23 (-6.6%), presenting a potential buying opportunity as the stock tends to rebound afterward. Another pullback period appears between September and October, offering a secondary, albeit less dramatic, buying opportunity. These pullbacks could be attributed to profit-taking after bullish phases or general market corrections, making them attractive entry points for long-term investors anticipating the subsequent rallies.
3) Summary:
An investment strategy based on CarMax's seasonality would involve capitalizing on the weakness in late March, aiming to capture the subsequent rally into July. Another entry point could be considered during the September-October pullback. Investors should be aware of the significant volatility and cyclical nature of the used car market, which could influence these seasonal patterns.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-03-03 | 81.5100 | 2025-05-01 | 65.5200 | -15.9900 | -19.62 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-03 | 70.3500 | 2023-05-01 | 70.4800 | 0.1300 | 0.18 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-03 | 104.4900 | 2022-05-01 | 85.7800 | -18.7100 | -17.91 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-03 | 121.8000 | 2021-05-01 | 133.2400 | 11.4400 | 9.39 |
| 2020 | 2020-03-03 | 86.1600 | 2020-05-01 | 71.0700 | -15.0900 | -17.51 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-03 | 64.8700 | 2017-05-01 | 58.1500 | -6.7200 | -10.36 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-03 | 50.2900 | 2016-05-01 | 52.9500 | 2.6600 | 5.29 |
| Avg | 82.7814 | 76.7414 | -6.04 | -7.22 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.14% | Feb Total -0.97% | Mar Total -2.73% | Apr Total +1.04% | May Total +4.77% | Jun Total +4.08% | Jul Total +4.60% | Aug Total +0.32% | Sep Total -8.14% | Oct Total -3.99% | Nov Total +4.80% | Dec Total -1.11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.24% | 0.00% | +0.61% | -0.03% | -0.76% | -0.10% | +0.25% | +0.63% | -0.35% | +0.79% | +0.42% | +0.52% | +0.84% |
| 2 Avg +0.10% | +0.21% | +0.20% | +0.07% | -0.39% | +0.85% | +0.42% | +0.93% | -1.20% | -0.34% | -0.58% | +0.97% | +0.07% |
| 3 Avg -0.02% | -0.93% | -0.63% | +0.25% | -1.28% | +0.79% | +0.33% | -0.06% | +0.56% | -0.33% | -0.19% | +1.30% | -0.05% |
| 4 Avg +0.21% | +0.75% | +1.00% | +0.17% | 0.00% | +0.46% | +0.19% | 0.00% | +0.06% | +0.31% | -0.73% | +0.17% | +0.19% |
| 5 Avg -0.09% | -0.07% | -0.53% | -0.23% | +0.25% | -0.22% | +0.33% | -0.06% | -0.19% | +0.04% | +0.06% | +0.68% | -1.10% |
| 6 Avg -0.10% | -0.18% | +0.13% | -0.42% | +1.49% | -0.24% | +0.42% | +0.23% | +0.33% | -0.81% | -0.35% | -2.39% | +0.60% |
| 7 Avg -0.07% | +0.54% | -0.45% | -0.48% | -0.46% | -0.36% | +0.39% | +0.17% | -0.57% | +0.54% | -0.74% | +0.10% | +0.54% |
| 8 Avg +0.35% | +0.08% | +0.21% | +0.40% | +1.88% | +1.03% | +0.54% | +0.02% | +0.30% | +0.31% | -0.12% | -0.78% | +0.27% |
| 9 Avg -0.09% | +0.23% | +0.37% | -1.38% | +1.60% | +0.22% | -0.81% | -0.42% | -0.53% | -0.17% | -0.01% | +0.04% | -0.29% |
| 10 Avg +0.02% | -0.42% | -0.07% | +0.19% | -1.36% | +0.12% | -0.79% | +0.99% | +0.08% | -0.66% | +0.18% | +1.46% | +0.56% |
| 11 Avg +0.06% | +0.71% | +0.01% | -0.51% | +0.32% | -1.18% | -0.52% | -0.15% | +0.73% | -0.20% | -0.24% | +1.19% | +0.57% |
| 12 Avg -0.04% | -0.02% | +0.62% | -0.71% | -1.36% | -0.11% | +0.63% | +0.94% | -0.09% | +0.38% | -0.29% | -0.04% | -0.45% |
| 13 Avg -0.11% | -0.53% | -0.43% | -0.63% | -0.29% | +0.35% | -0.75% | -0.40% | +0.60% | -0.41% | +0.30% | +0.65% | +0.18% |
| 14 Avg +0.22% | +0.13% | +0.64% | -0.67% | 0.00% | +0.55% | +0.22% | +0.67% | -0.02% | +0.90% | -0.26% | +0.47% | +0.03% |
| 15 Avg +0.15% | -0.31% | +0.67% | -0.19% | -0.64% | +0.15% | +0.65% | +0.20% | +0.33% | -0.03% | +0.78% | -0.16% | +0.36% |
| 16 Avg -0.48% | -0.08% | -0.52% | -2.01% | -0.67% | -0.32% | -0.54% | -0.08% | +0.41% | -0.20% | +0.32% | -1.29% | -0.82% |
| 17 Avg -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.50% | +1.44% | +0.84% | +0.34% | -0.13% | -1.02% | -0.13% | +0.16% | -1.42% | -0.21% |
| 18 Avg -0.41% | -1.18% | -0.65% | -1.02% | -0.38% | +0.04% | -0.21% | +0.45% | +0.02% | -0.47% | -0.82% | 0.00% | -0.69% |
| 19 Avg -0.09% | +0.26% | -0.20% | -0.13% | +0.84% | -0.16% | -0.43% | -0.41% | +0.08% | +0.08% | -0.74% | +0.31% | -0.64% |
| 20 Avg -0.16% | +1.49% | -0.31% | -0.32% | -0.69% | +0.34% | +0.17% | +0.40% | -0.50% | -1.18% | -0.47% | -0.09% | -0.83% |
| 21 Avg +0.08% | +0.28% | -1.35% | +0.59% | -0.82% | -0.14% | +0.01% | +0.41% | +0.38% | -0.94% | +0.01% | +1.11% | +1.43% |
| 22 Avg -0.08% | -0.25% | -0.27% | -0.74% | +0.54% | -0.29% | +1.99% | +0.48% | -0.66% | +0.80% | -0.19% | +0.26% | -2.59% |
| 23 Avg +0.15% | +0.47% | -0.11% | -0.31% | +0.95% | -0.68% | +0.89% | +0.11% | +0.19% | +0.35% | -0.27% | +0.13% | +0.11% |
| 24 Avg +0.30% | +0.25% | +0.08% | +2.14% | +1.00% | -0.14% | +0.55% | -0.47% | +0.04% | -1.34% | +1.08% | +0.17% | +0.22% |
| 25 Avg +0.08% | +0.24% | -0.33% | +1.44% | -0.66% | +0.96% | -0.10% | +0.13% | +0.36% | -2.21% | +0.21% | +0.94% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.28% | +0.78% | +0.29% | +0.30% | +0.83% | +1.00% | -0.71% | +0.55% | -0.52% | +0.21% | -0.36% | +0.37% | +0.68% |
| 27 Avg +0.20% | -0.46% | -0.36% | +0.04% | +1.19% | +0.82% | +0.24% | 0.00% | +0.31% | +0.55% | -0.14% | 0.00% | +0.18% |
| 28 Avg +0.01% | +0.34% | +0.55% | +0.32% | -0.53% | -0.26% | -0.12% | +0.21% | +0.45% | -0.65% | +0.30% | +0.01% | -0.53% |
| 29 Avg +0.13% | +0.17% | - | +2.34% | -0.12% | -0.04% | +0.54% | +0.27% | +0.61% | -2.29% | -0.30% | +0.10% | +0.19% |
| 30 Avg -0.18% | +0.21% | - | -0.33% | -0.89% | +0.85% | -0.03% | -0.52% | +0.34% | -1.05% | -0.60% | +0.01% | +0.05% |
| 31 Avg -0.34% | -0.48% | - | -0.38% | - | -0.37% | - | -0.49% | -0.22% | - | -0.42% | - | 0.00% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
