Check historical price trends and seasonality for KC (Hard Red) Wheat Futures (KC) (KE=F).
KC (Hard Red) Wheat Futures (KC) (KE=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +2.45%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 7 days) is +2.35%.
5 wins 0 losses with a win rate of 100.00%.
1) Overview:
KC Wheat futures exhibit a strong bullish tendency from February through late May, culminating in a peak around May 28 with an average gain of 8.0%. Following this high, there is a significant bearish phase, with prices declining into late August, reaching a low around August 30 with an average loss of 4.9%. After August, the market begins a recovery, trending upwards into the end of the year, with a smaller bullish move into December 31, showing an average gain of 2.4%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period occurs from June through August, presenting a potential buying opportunity as prices decline into the end of August. This decline is likely influenced by harvest expectations. A smaller pullback occurs in early December before the year-end rally, offering another potential entry point.
3) Summary:
A seasonal trading strategy for KC Wheat futures could involve entering long positions during the late-August dip, anticipating a rally towards the end of the year and into the spring. A second entry point could be in early December. Consider exiting positions near the end of May to capitalize on the seasonal peak and avoid the subsequent summer decline.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 548.2500 | 2025-01-22 | 574.7500 | 26.5000 | 4.83 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 601.5000 | 2024-01-22 | 607.0000 | 5.5000 | 0.91 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 484.7500 | 2020-01-22 | 492.5000 | 7.7500 | 1.60 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 495.5000 | 2019-01-22 | 509.7500 | 14.2500 | 2.88 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 422.0000 | 2018-01-22 | 428.5000 | 6.5000 | 1.54 |
| Avg | 510.4000 | 522.5000 | 12.10 | 2.35 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.50% | Feb Total -0.42% | Mar Total +0.97% | Apr Total +1.47% | May Total +3.34% | Jun Total -5.26% | Jul Total +0.57% | Aug Total -3.98% | Sep Total +4.66% | Oct Total +0.31% | Nov Total -1.08% | Dec Total +3.49% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.07% | 0.00% | +0.24% | +0.89% | -0.60% | +0.84% | +0.20% | -0.79% | -0.48% | -0.28% | +0.44% | +0.77% | -0.35% |
| 2 Avg +0.07% | -0.10% | -0.33% | +0.92% | -0.41% | +0.26% | +0.31% | -1.29% | +0.21% | +0.02% | +0.67% | -0.02% | +0.61% |
| 3 Avg +0.07% | -0.64% | +0.15% | +0.48% | +0.87% | +0.54% | +0.12% | +0.84% | -0.53% | -0.02% | -0.32% | +0.06% | -0.71% |
| 4 Avg -0.01% | -0.15% | +0.12% | +0.39% | +0.06% | +0.08% | -0.33% | 0.00% | -0.48% | +0.30% | -0.74% | +0.24% | +0.37% |
| 5 Avg +0.27% | +0.24% | -0.13% | +0.33% | +0.46% | +1.03% | -0.65% | +1.19% | -0.04% | +0.24% | +0.79% | +0.27% | -0.50% |
| 6 Avg -0.10% | -0.11% | +0.26% | -0.63% | -0.21% | +0.44% | +1.32% | -0.86% | +0.28% | -0.13% | -0.47% | -0.36% | -0.76% |
| 7 Avg -0.03% | -0.02% | +0.32% | +0.25% | -0.12% | -0.43% | -0.64% | 0.00% | +0.32% | -0.20% | +0.10% | -0.61% | +0.62% |
| 8 Avg +0.11% | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.28% | +0.90% | +0.22% | +0.50% | +1.02% | -0.21% | -0.04% | -0.24% | +0.19% | -0.58% |
| 9 Avg -0.04% | +0.62% | -0.10% | -1.11% | +0.67% | -0.28% | -0.54% | +0.19% | -0.14% | +0.29% | +0.30% | -0.51% | +0.17% |
| 10 Avg +0.04% | -0.19% | -0.06% | +0.07% | +0.30% | -0.28% | -0.62% | +0.06% | -0.15% | +0.48% | -0.04% | +0.53% | +0.45% |
| 11 Avg -0.18% | -0.11% | +0.06% | -0.40% | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.59% | -0.17% | +0.08% | -0.40% |
| 12 Avg +0.21% | +0.83% | +0.31% | +0.59% | +0.10% | +0.03% | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.33% | +0.29% | -0.15% | +0.18% | +0.77% |
| 13 Avg -0.07% | +0.05% | +0.09% | -0.36% | -0.10% | +0.08% | +0.28% | -0.79% | -0.43% | +0.15% | +0.40% | -0.52% | +0.34% |
| 14 Avg -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.14% | +0.21% | +0.13% | +0.16% | -0.72% | +0.03% | -0.12% | +0.13% | +0.05% | -0.54% | -0.07% |
| 15 Avg +0.24% | +0.08% | -0.44% | +1.15% | -0.26% | -0.10% | +0.04% | -0.01% | -0.77% | +2.11% | +0.51% | +0.29% | +0.24% |
| 16 Avg +0.09% | -0.73% | +0.18% | -1.20% | -0.62% | +1.06% | +0.25% | +0.09% | +0.09% | +1.22% | +0.08% | -0.42% | +1.06% |
| 17 Avg +0.23% | +0.57% | +0.10% | +0.83% | -0.07% | +0.17% | -0.85% | +0.35% | +0.01% | +0.55% | +0.25% | -0.06% | +0.87% |
| 18 Avg +0.15% | +0.50% | +0.86% | -0.13% | +0.64% | -0.49% | +0.02% | +0.65% | -0.18% | +0.21% | -0.40% | +0.37% | -0.28% |
| 19 Avg -0.14% | +0.01% | -0.67% | -0.24% | +0.12% | -0.71% | -0.52% | +0.63% | +0.21% | -0.45% | +0.26% | -0.22% | -0.13% |
| 20 Avg -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.28% | -0.17% | -0.07% | +0.95% | -0.34% | +0.14% | -0.40% | +0.52% | +0.05% | -0.37% | -0.06% |
| 21 Avg -0.17% | +0.64% | -0.35% | +0.27% | -0.20% | -0.03% | -1.00% | -0.17% | -0.61% | -0.60% | -0.50% | -0.01% | +0.49% |
| 22 Avg +0.01% | -0.45% | +0.62% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.35% | -0.24% | +0.34% | +0.06% | +0.32% | +0.23% |
| 23 Avg +0.09% | -0.22% | -0.15% | +0.54% | +0.11% | +0.39% | -0.55% | -0.45% | -0.03% | +0.16% | +0.70% | +0.08% | +0.46% |
| 24 Avg -0.08% | +0.40% | -0.18% | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.26% | -0.41% | +0.97% | -0.05% | -0.20% | -0.67% | -0.32% | +0.04% |
| 25 Avg -0.09% | +0.71% | -1.27% | +0.12% | +0.53% | +0.20% | -0.81% | +0.39% | -0.22% | +0.10% | -0.58% | -0.25% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg -0.13% | +0.36% | -0.26% | -0.89% | +0.33% | +0.34% | -0.57% | -0.93% | +0.06% | -0.57% | +0.08% | +0.06% | +0.47% |
| 27 Avg -0.15% | -0.72% | -0.40% | -0.05% | +0.05% | +0.30% | -0.48% | -0.24% | +0.06% | +0.08% | -0.06% | -0.74% | +0.44% |
| 28 Avg +0.00% | -0.12% | +1.14% | -0.37% | -0.08% | +0.64% | -0.62% | +0.33% | -0.31% | -0.05% | -0.44% | +0.44% | -0.50% |
| 29 Avg -0.01% | +0.48% | - | -0.41% | -0.90% | -0.19% | +0.71% | +0.39% | +0.05% | -0.72% | +0.28% | +0.22% | 0.00% |
| 30 Avg +0.14% | +0.58% | - | -0.47% | +0.14% | -0.36% | +0.93% | +0.08% | -0.43% | +1.30% | -0.38% | -0.22% | +0.40% |
| 31 Avg -0.03% | -0.64% | - | +0.77% | - | -0.89% | - | -0.61% | +0.99% | - | +0.41% | - | -0.21% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
