Check historical price trends and seasonality for Jefferies (JEF).
Jefferies (JEF) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +20.22%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -10.85%.
1 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 20.00%.
1) Overview:
Jefferies (JEF) exhibits a strong bullish tendency during the late fall and early winter months. The stock typically experiences a significant climb starting in October, culminating in substantial gains by December. Specifically, from November 1st to December 31st, the stock tends to rise from +9.4% to +20.2%. However, the period from March to early April is notably bearish, with a low point around April 5, showing an average decline of -7.4%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most pronounced dip occurs in early April, presenting a potential buying opportunity around April 5, where the stock tends to decline by -7.4%. Another pullback period appears during the month of May and June, where the stock declines to -5.8%. These pullbacks could be considered strategic entry points, anticipating a rebound in the latter half of the year, especially leading into the strong performance typically seen from October onwards.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to investing in Jefferies (JEF) would involve considering entry points during the bearish periods in April, to capitalize on the subsequent bullish trend. The most opportune time to consider exiting or reducing positions would be in late December, given the significant gains typically realized by December 26 (+20.6%) and December 31 (+20.2%). Investors should be aware of the potential for negative performance during the March-April timeframe.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 74.4600 | 2025-03-16 | 56.3300 | -18.1300 | -24.35 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 39.9800 | 2024-03-15 | 43.4500 | 3.4700 | 8.68 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 21.4245 | 2020-03-15 | 15.8891 | -5.5354 | -25.84 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 17.7867 | 2019-03-16 | 17.3928 | -0.3939 | -2.21 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 24.6615 | 2018-03-16 | 22.0655 | -2.5960 | -10.53 |
| Avg | 35.6625 | 31.0255 | -4.64 | -10.85 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.98% | Feb Total -1.94% | Mar Total -6.77% | Apr Total +1.02% | May Total +0.28% | Jun Total +4.29% | Jul Total +7.42% | Aug Total +0.86% | Sep Total +0.92% | Oct Total +0.95% | Nov Total +8.86% | Dec Total +0.85% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.01% | 0.00% | +0.34% | +0.38% | -0.55% | -0.27% | +0.23% | +0.27% | -1.40% | +0.25% | -0.16% | +0.24% | +0.78% |
| 2 Avg +0.18% | +0.57% | -0.43% | +0.64% | +0.15% | +0.78% | +0.04% | +0.36% | -0.72% | -0.04% | +0.03% | +0.57% | +0.20% |
| 3 Avg +0.03% | -0.02% | +0.45% | -0.55% | -1.25% | +0.10% | +0.36% | +1.16% | +0.62% | -0.90% | +0.11% | +0.54% | -0.23% |
| 4 Avg +0.22% | +1.99% | +0.85% | -0.79% | -1.17% | -0.39% | +0.31% | 0.00% | +0.32% | +0.49% | +1.29% | +0.08% | -0.38% |
| 5 Avg +0.04% | -0.54% | -0.56% | -0.15% | -0.19% | +0.87% | +0.18% | -0.16% | +0.05% | -0.23% | +0.56% | +0.93% | -0.28% |
| 6 Avg +0.19% | +0.72% | +0.02% | -1.15% | +0.74% | -0.18% | +1.04% | -0.06% | +0.57% | -0.38% | +0.27% | +0.86% | -0.17% |
| 7 Avg -0.24% | -0.42% | -0.56% | -1.29% | -0.38% | +0.50% | +0.16% | -0.47% | +0.09% | +0.05% | -1.19% | +0.65% | 0.00% |
| 8 Avg +0.17% | +0.15% | -0.38% | +0.09% | +0.71% | +0.89% | +0.46% | -0.31% | +0.36% | +0.13% | -0.35% | +0.19% | +0.04% |
| 9 Avg +0.17% | +0.29% | +0.24% | -0.95% | +2.53% | -0.51% | -0.64% | +0.30% | -0.30% | +0.56% | -0.24% | +0.42% | +0.38% |
| 10 Avg -0.04% | -0.39% | -0.26% | -0.32% | -1.04% | +0.71% | -1.47% | +0.99% | +0.18% | 0.00% | -0.52% | +1.57% | +0.02% |
| 11 Avg +0.03% | +0.61% | -0.07% | -0.32% | -0.20% | -0.97% | -0.48% | -0.22% | +0.29% | +0.58% | -0.42% | +1.40% | +0.21% |
| 12 Avg +0.10% | -1.04% | +0.79% | -0.83% | -0.07% | -0.40% | +0.48% | +0.93% | +0.19% | +0.73% | -0.02% | +0.05% | +0.33% |
| 13 Avg -0.14% | +0.04% | -0.01% | +0.65% | -0.28% | -1.01% | -0.32% | +0.25% | 0.00% | -0.30% | +0.27% | -0.66% | -0.35% |
| 14 Avg +0.33% | +0.48% | +0.57% | +1.17% | +0.75% | +0.65% | -0.55% | +0.61% | -0.06% | +0.54% | +0.14% | -0.29% | -0.10% |
| 15 Avg +0.03% | +0.10% | +0.42% | -0.83% | -0.75% | -0.28% | +0.21% | +0.88% | -0.39% | +0.19% | +0.54% | +0.43% | -0.23% |
| 16 Avg -0.02% | +0.45% | +0.07% | +0.08% | -0.32% | -0.51% | +0.16% | +0.22% | +0.27% | +0.25% | -0.33% | -0.53% | -0.03% |
| 17 Avg -0.01% | -0.33% | -0.06% | +0.86% | +0.79% | +0.18% | -0.57% | -0.25% | -0.74% | -0.11% | +1.16% | -0.43% | -0.61% |
| 18 Avg +0.07% | +0.32% | -0.20% | -0.62% | +0.09% | +0.30% | +0.36% | +0.14% | +0.03% | +0.54% | -0.11% | +0.35% | -0.37% |
| 19 Avg -0.03% | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.21% | +0.69% | -0.70% | +0.07% | +0.06% | -0.41% | +0.74% | -0.56% | +0.47% | -0.13% |
| 20 Avg -0.16% | +0.49% | -0.43% | -1.16% | -0.53% | -0.25% | -0.07% | +0.54% | -0.17% | -0.39% | +0.48% | -0.38% | -0.02% |
| 21 Avg +0.01% | -0.03% | -0.70% | +0.05% | -0.99% | -0.11% | +0.08% | +0.47% | +0.17% | -0.50% | +0.61% | +0.50% | +0.58% |
| 22 Avg -0.07% | -0.29% | -0.18% | -1.10% | +0.15% | +0.24% | +0.09% | -0.01% | +0.14% | -0.28% | +0.11% | +0.57% | -0.28% |
| 23 Avg +0.08% | -0.32% | +0.03% | -1.33% | +1.13% | -0.18% | +0.92% | +0.42% | +0.31% | -0.37% | -0.59% | +0.23% | +0.76% |
| 24 Avg +0.22% | +0.12% | -0.44% | +1.31% | +0.51% | -0.11% | -0.42% | +0.06% | +0.37% | +0.37% | +0.48% | +0.36% | -0.02% |
| 25 Avg +0.07% | +0.14% | -0.35% | -0.16% | -0.06% | +0.15% | +0.41% | +0.27% | +0.58% | -0.43% | -0.30% | +0.59% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.24% | +0.09% | -0.23% | +1.19% | -0.15% | +1.51% | -0.16% | +0.28% | -0.21% | -0.85% | +0.10% | +0.20% | +1.10% |
| 27 Avg +0.04% | -1.13% | -0.63% | -1.31% | +1.25% | +1.35% | +0.41% | +0.96% | +0.58% | -0.13% | -0.46% | -0.22% | -0.13% |
| 28 Avg +0.14% | +0.89% | -0.08% | -0.64% | +0.09% | -0.85% | +1.34% | -0.27% | +0.27% | +0.50% | +0.08% | +0.28% | +0.12% |
| 29 Avg +0.11% | -0.14% | - | +0.57% | +0.21% | -0.66% | +1.33% | +0.54% | +0.23% | -0.57% | -0.07% | +0.08% | -0.33% |
| 30 Avg -0.02% | +0.21% | - | +0.02% | -0.83% | -0.18% | +0.31% | -0.20% | -0.12% | +0.45% | +0.27% | -0.16% | +0.02% |
| 31 Avg -0.16% | +0.22% | - | -0.07% | - | -0.38% | - | -0.36% | -0.24% | - | -0.24% | - | -0.05% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
