Check historical price trends and seasonality for Incyte (INCY).
Incyte (INCY) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +1.60%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -2.12%.
1 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 20.00%.
1) Overview:
Incyte's historical data reveals a distinct seasonal pattern. The stock tends to experience a significant bearish phase from February through May, culminating in a low around May 11 with an average decline of -6.5%. A bullish trend typically emerges in late November, peaking around November 27 with an average gain of +3.5%, and continues with positive momentum into the end of the year, reaching +1.5% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most pronounced pullback period for Incyte historically occurs between February and May. This extended period of weakness presents a potential buying opportunity, especially as the stock approaches its seasonal low around May 11, where it has historically declined by -6.5%. Another potential, albeit less pronounced, buying opportunity may arise in September and October, before the bullish phase begins in late November.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to Incyte might involve accumulating shares during the period of weakness from February to May, capitalizing on the dip around May 11. Consider taking profits or reducing exposure as the stock approaches the end of the year, particularly after the rally culminating around November 27, where it has historically gained +3.5%. Investors should be aware that seasonality is just one factor and should be combined with fundamental analysis.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 72.4700 | 2025-03-16 | 67.8600 | -4.6100 | -6.36 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 61.3400 | 2024-03-15 | 58.3700 | -2.9700 | -4.84 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 80.6200 | 2020-03-15 | 73.8400 | -6.7800 | -8.41 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 76.5600 | 2019-03-16 | 84.8000 | 8.2400 | 10.76 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 91.6500 | 2018-03-16 | 90.0300 | -1.6200 | -1.77 |
| Avg | 76.5280 | 74.9800 | -1.55 | -2.12 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.49% | Feb Total -0.74% | Mar Total -1.37% | Apr Total -1.49% | May Total +3.51% | Jun Total +1.62% | Jul Total +2.85% | Aug Total +0.39% | Sep Total -4.71% | Oct Total +1.80% | Nov Total +3.79% | Dec Total +0.21% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.25% | 0.00% | +1.13% | +0.22% | +0.52% | +0.23% | -0.21% | +0.43% | -0.56% | -0.12% | +0.66% | +1.46% | -0.80% |
| 2 Avg -0.11% | +0.98% | -1.33% | +0.61% | +0.23% | +0.10% | +0.47% | +0.13% | -0.85% | +0.44% | -0.57% | -1.75% | +0.19% |
| 3 Avg +0.06% | -0.01% | -0.60% | -0.74% | +0.44% | +0.15% | +0.04% | -0.09% | +0.14% | -0.56% | +0.58% | +1.00% | +0.38% |
| 4 Avg -0.04% | -0.30% | +0.38% | +0.22% | +0.13% | -0.33% | -0.18% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.91% | -0.76% | +1.59% | -0.29% |
| 5 Avg -0.04% | +0.06% | +0.08% | +0.50% | +0.04% | -0.58% | -0.59% | +0.30% | -0.90% | -0.22% | +0.32% | 0.00% | +0.50% |
| 6 Avg -0.06% | +0.66% | +0.57% | -0.81% | -0.14% | -0.49% | -0.20% | +0.62% | -0.24% | -0.47% | -0.51% | +0.12% | +0.17% |
| 7 Avg -0.01% | +0.54% | -1.55% | +0.01% | -0.01% | +0.05% | +0.01% | +0.18% | +0.28% | -0.50% | +0.05% | +0.84% | -0.08% |
| 8 Avg -0.12% | +0.51% | +0.10% | -0.19% | -0.69% | -0.72% | +0.36% | +0.04% | +0.26% | -0.52% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.31% |
| 9 Avg -0.11% | +0.05% | -0.28% | -0.47% | +0.17% | -0.01% | -0.43% | +0.84% | -0.18% | -0.20% | +0.31% | +0.29% | -1.41% |
| 10 Avg -0.33% | 0.00% | -1.68% | +1.27% | -0.62% | +0.04% | -0.75% | -0.38% | -1.37% | -0.60% | -0.43% | +0.33% | +0.27% |
| 11 Avg -0.51% | -1.27% | -1.22% | +0.16% | -0.77% | -0.35% | -1.22% | +0.03% | -0.23% | -0.48% | -1.10% | -0.18% | +0.45% |
| 12 Avg +0.14% | -0.11% | +1.26% | -0.78% | +0.35% | +0.54% | +0.43% | +0.10% | +0.54% | -0.82% | +0.10% | -0.41% | +0.48% |
| 13 Avg +0.32% | -0.85% | +0.77% | +1.10% | +1.13% | +0.61% | +0.04% | -1.11% | +1.00% | -0.31% | +0.44% | +0.40% | +0.64% |
| 14 Avg +0.14% | +0.78% | +0.15% | -0.78% | +0.75% | -0.12% | +0.32% | +0.37% | -0.08% | +0.54% | -0.09% | -0.53% | +0.42% |
| 15 Avg +0.15% | +0.01% | +0.01% | -0.57% | -0.38% | +0.71% | +0.74% | +0.40% | +0.32% | -0.09% | +0.10% | -0.20% | +0.73% |
| 16 Avg +0.11% | -0.75% | -0.05% | -0.38% | +0.18% | +0.44% | +0.68% | -0.56% | -0.03% | +1.05% | +0.51% | +0.24% | -0.03% |
| 17 Avg -0.03% | -0.23% | +0.71% | -1.27% | -0.86% | +0.11% | +0.48% | +0.09% | +0.03% | +0.23% | -0.02% | +0.33% | 0.00% |
| 18 Avg -0.24% | +0.37% | -0.39% | -0.71% | -0.43% | +0.68% | -0.03% | +0.01% | -0.52% | -0.95% | +0.03% | -0.05% | -0.96% |
| 19 Avg +0.05% | +0.47% | +0.34% | -0.10% | -0.59% | +0.04% | +1.39% | +0.18% | +0.39% | +0.41% | -0.52% | -1.59% | +0.22% |
| 20 Avg +0.37% | +0.27% | +0.26% | +0.37% | +0.28% | +1.06% | +0.57% | +1.68% | +0.23% | +0.25% | -0.08% | -0.39% | -0.02% |
| 21 Avg +0.02% | -0.33% | +0.08% | +0.53% | -0.66% | -0.01% | +1.30% | -0.15% | +0.28% | -0.65% | +0.17% | +0.24% | -0.53% |
| 22 Avg +0.16% | +0.98% | +0.29% | -0.30% | -0.07% | +0.53% | +0.89% | -0.31% | +0.45% | -0.98% | +0.19% | -0.06% | +0.26% |
| 23 Avg -0.13% | -0.12% | -0.20% | -1.57% | +0.51% | +0.92% | +0.29% | -0.34% | -0.34% | -0.90% | -0.15% | +0.04% | +0.35% |
| 24 Avg +0.18% | +0.13% | +1.19% | +0.89% | -0.60% | +0.02% | -0.06% | +0.20% | +0.14% | -0.43% | -0.14% | +0.83% | +0.01% |
| 25 Avg +0.14% | +0.63% | -0.09% | +0.58% | -0.13% | +0.46% | -0.31% | 0.00% | -0.42% | -0.53% | +0.48% | +0.98% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg -0.01% | -0.30% | -0.07% | +0.98% | -0.51% | -0.58% | -1.12% | -0.02% | -0.11% | +0.40% | +0.26% | +0.82% | +0.14% |
| 27 Avg -0.29% | -1.07% | -0.14% | -0.73% | -0.13% | +0.56% | -1.93% | -0.08% | +0.32% | +0.41% | -0.66% | +0.10% | -0.09% |
| 28 Avg -0.01% | -0.56% | -0.47% | -0.31% | -0.30% | +0.30% | +0.35% | +0.06% | +0.46% | +1.18% | +0.46% | -0.86% | -0.49% |
| 29 Avg +0.19% | -0.28% | - | +0.08% | -0.01% | -0.46% | +0.24% | +0.80% | +0.29% | -0.26% | +1.57% | +0.16% | -0.04% |
| 30 Avg +0.18% | -0.99% | - | +0.10% | +0.67% | -0.22% | +0.05% | +0.79% | +0.92% | +0.85% | -0.30% | +0.16% | -0.10% |
| 31 Avg +0.11% | +0.24% | - | +0.72% | - | -0.19% | - | -1.36% | +0.26% | - | +0.97% | - | +0.13% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
