Check historical price trends and seasonality for Heating Oil Futures (NYMEX) (HO=F).
Heating Oil Futures (NYMEX) (HO=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +11.14%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Feb 4 for 30 days) is +7.98%.
4 wins 2 losses with a win rate of 66.67%.
1) Overview:
Heating oil futures tend to experience a strong bullish phase from early in the year through early March, peaking around March 8th with an average gain of +7.7%. Following this peak, prices typically decline into mid-March, reaching a low around March 15th at -0.1%. A significant bullish trend then emerges, culminating in a peak around October 27th with an impressive +17.7% gain, before experiencing a decline into late November. Prices then consolidate before rising again into the end of the year, reaching +11.1% by December 31st.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
One potential buying opportunity arises around March 15th, where prices tend to bottom out at -0.1% after the early March peak. This pullback could be attributed to profit-taking after the initial winter heating demand surge. Another significant buying opportunity appears after the October peak, as prices retrace into November, offering a chance to enter before the year-end rally.
3) Summary:
A seasonal trading strategy for heating oil futures could involve entering long positions around March 15th, capitalizing on the subsequent bullish trend that extends through October. Another entry point could be considered after the October peak, anticipating the year-end rally. Traders should be aware of potential price volatility and manage risk accordingly, considering fundamental factors alongside seasonal tendencies.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-02-04 | 2.4298 | 2025-03-05 | 2.2408 | -0.1890 | -7.78 |
| 2022 | 2022-02-04 | 2.8751 | 2022-03-05 | 3.7763 | 0.9012 | 31.34 |
| 2021 | 2021-02-04 | 1.7005 | 2021-03-05 | 1.9440 | 0.2435 | 14.32 |
| 2020 | 2020-02-04 | 1.5839 | 2020-03-04 | 1.5332 | -0.0507 | -3.20 |
| 2019 | 2019-02-04 | 1.9074 | 2019-03-05 | 2.0164 | 0.1090 | 5.71 |
| 2016 | 2016-02-04 | 1.0805 | 2016-03-04 | 1.1613 | 0.0808 | 7.48 |
| Avg | 1.9295 | 2.1120 | 0.18 | 7.98 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.92% | Feb Total -0.33% | Mar Total -0.60% | Apr Total +0.57% | May Total +1.03% | Jun Total +5.63% | Jul Total +1.48% | Aug Total +0.84% | Sep Total +2.40% | Oct Total +2.03% | Nov Total -3.78% | Dec Total +2.59% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.21% | 0.00% | -0.35% | +0.84% | -1.61% | +0.17% | +1.02% | +0.95% | -1.74% | -0.52% | +0.27% | -1.45% | -0.12% |
| 2 Avg -0.03% | +0.05% | -0.67% | +1.01% | +1.01% | -2.00% | +1.21% | +0.20% | -0.41% | +0.56% | -1.37% | +0.17% | -0.11% |
| 3 Avg +0.07% | -0.01% | +0.31% | +0.18% | +0.21% | -0.58% | -0.45% | -0.09% | +0.57% | -0.61% | +0.61% | +0.16% | +0.50% |
| 4 Avg +0.23% | +0.13% | +0.08% | +1.45% | -0.33% | +0.38% | -0.04% | +0.17% | +0.06% | 0.00% | +0.33% | +0.66% | -0.09% |
| 5 Avg +0.10% | +0.53% | +0.11% | -0.29% | -0.11% | +1.23% | +0.53% | -1.05% | -0.90% | +0.20% | +0.83% | +0.40% | -0.25% |
| 6 Avg -0.19% | -0.14% | -0.05% | -0.54% | -0.15% | -0.78% | +0.66% | -0.69% | -0.17% | -0.34% | +0.76% | +0.09% | -0.93% |
| 7 Avg +0.10% | +0.03% | +0.28% | +0.58% | -0.42% | +0.12% | +0.38% | +0.44% | -0.42% | +0.24% | +0.63% | -0.56% | -0.13% |
| 8 Avg +0.18% | -0.20% | +0.17% | +0.05% | +0.51% | +1.48% | -0.07% | +0.03% | +0.21% | -0.05% | +0.07% | -0.82% | +0.77% |
| 9 Avg -0.24% | +0.48% | -0.84% | -3.82% | -0.16% | -0.37% | +0.40% | -0.06% | +0.81% | +0.22% | +0.22% | +0.55% | -0.30% |
| 10 Avg +0.26% | +0.62% | +0.25% | +0.24% | +0.54% | +0.81% | +0.06% | +0.57% | +0.29% | -0.37% | -0.03% | -0.06% | +0.22% |
| 11 Avg +0.22% | +0.55% | +0.51% | +0.60% | -0.11% | +0.19% | -0.43% | +0.22% | +0.83% | +0.08% | +0.21% | -0.06% | +0.03% |
| 12 Avg +0.08% | +0.19% | +0.97% | -0.84% | +1.32% | -0.27% | -0.36% | +0.15% | +0.48% | +0.13% | -0.45% | -0.75% | +0.42% |
| 13 Avg +0.31% | -0.20% | 0.00% | -0.11% | +0.87% | -0.10% | +1.55% | -0.32% | +0.03% | -0.11% | +1.57% | -0.28% | +0.86% |
| 14 Avg -0.04% | +0.23% | +0.65% | -0.68% | +0.19% | +1.26% | -0.34% | -0.20% | -0.64% | -0.58% | -0.74% | -0.10% | +0.50% |
| 15 Avg -0.12% | -0.35% | -0.38% | -1.26% | -0.68% | +0.67% | +0.73% | +0.06% | -0.52% | +0.01% | -0.48% | +0.66% | +0.06% |
| 16 Avg +0.06% | -0.10% | -0.25% | 0.00% | +0.47% | +0.45% | +0.56% | -0.98% | -0.30% | +1.42% | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.19% |
| 17 Avg +0.26% | -0.07% | +0.17% | +1.53% | -0.33% | +0.49% | +0.08% | +0.12% | +0.84% | -0.06% | +0.38% | +0.03% | -0.11% |
| 18 Avg +0.10% | +0.23% | -0.34% | -1.04% | +0.01% | +0.60% | +0.91% | -0.19% | +0.96% | -0.36% | -0.66% | +1.09% | +0.01% |
| 19 Avg -0.02% | +0.10% | -0.43% | +1.29% | -0.17% | -0.24% | -0.04% | -0.33% | -0.36% | +0.73% | -0.24% | -0.81% | +0.23% |
| 20 Avg -0.09% | -0.10% | +0.08% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.20% | +0.17% | +0.47% | -0.03% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.40% | -0.60% |
| 21 Avg -0.08% | +0.04% | 0.00% | +0.54% | -2.77% | +0.12% | +0.14% | +0.79% | -0.55% | -0.16% | +0.01% | +0.77% | +0.14% |
| 22 Avg +0.23% | +0.53% | +0.52% | +0.25% | +0.69% | -0.27% | +0.13% | -0.44% | +0.30% | +0.28% | +0.67% | -0.21% | +0.38% |
| 23 Avg -0.06% | +0.09% | -0.22% | -0.19% | +0.24% | -0.52% | -1.07% | -0.06% | +1.02% | -0.43% | +0.05% | -0.48% | +0.92% |
| 24 Avg +0.13% | -0.59% | +0.63% | +1.24% | -1.28% | +0.55% | -1.04% | +0.15% | +1.23% | +0.66% | +0.34% | +0.22% | -0.56% |
| 25 Avg -0.03% | -0.21% | -0.81% | -0.06% | +0.09% | -0.52% | -0.06% | +0.46% | +0.93% | +0.30% | +0.29% | -0.78% | -0.02% |
| 26 Avg +0.18% | +1.21% | -0.60% | -0.25% | +0.78% | +0.50% | +0.80% | +0.56% | -0.42% | -0.33% | +0.39% | -1.13% | +0.60% |
| 27 Avg +0.12% | -0.21% | +0.17% | +0.37% | +0.08% | -0.22% | -0.46% | +0.30% | -0.16% | +0.58% | +1.02% | -0.34% | +0.28% |
| 28 Avg +0.07% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.98% | +1.80% | -0.17% | +0.09% | +0.14% | -0.20% | +1.30% | -0.83% | +0.26% | -0.21% |
| 29 Avg -0.05% | +0.32% | - | -0.55% | -0.05% | -0.12% | +0.58% | +0.12% | +0.15% | -0.43% | -0.24% | -0.38% | +0.10% |
| 30 Avg -0.27% | -1.09% | - | -0.32% | +0.07% | -0.95% | -0.01% | -0.38% | -0.80% | +0.17% | -0.21% | +0.01% | +0.56% |
| 31 Avg -0.26% | 0.00% | - | +0.27% | - | -0.66% | - | +0.36% | -0.27% | - | -1.12% | - | -0.38% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
