Check historical price trends and seasonality for HKDJPY (HKDJPY=X).
HKDJPY (HKDJPY=X) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +2.98%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -1.02%.
3 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 42.86%.
1) Overview:
The HKDJPY pair exhibits a generally bearish trend in the first quarter, bottoming out around March 10 with an average decline of -1.2%. A strong bullish phase begins in late April, gaining momentum through the summer months and peaking in late October. This bullish trend culminates in November, with a notable high around November 10, showing an average increase of +3.7%. The pair then consolidates at a high level before slightly declining towards the end of the year, still showing a gain of +2.8% on December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period for HKDJPY appears in the first quarter, particularly from January through mid-March. This bearish trend, potentially driven by early-year market adjustments, presents a buying opportunity. Specifically, the dip around March 10, with an average decline of -1.2%, could be an attractive entry point for long positions, anticipating the subsequent bullish trend that typically begins in late April. Another minor dip occurs in early August, which could also be considered a buying opportunity before the pair resumes its upward trajectory in September.
3) Summary:
Based on 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach to HKDJPY involves capitalizing on the early-year weakness. Consider initiating long positions around March 10, anticipating a rebound and a sustained bullish trend throughout the summer and into late autumn. Given the significant gains typically seen by November 10 (+3.7%) and December 31 (+2.8%), traders should monitor market conditions and consider taking profits or adjusting positions accordingly as the year concludes.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 20.0703 | 2025-03-16 | 19.0359 | -1.0344 | -5.15 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 18.6353 | 2024-03-15 | 18.9571 | 0.3218 | 1.73 |
| 2023 | 2023-01-16 | 16.3901 | 2023-03-16 | 16.9362 | 0.5461 | 3.33 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 14.1380 | 2020-03-15 | 13.4476 | -0.6904 | -4.88 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 13.8503 | 2019-03-16 | 14.2340 | 0.3837 | 2.77 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 14.1331 | 2018-03-16 | 13.5564 | -0.5767 | -4.08 |
| 2017 | 2017-01-16 | 14.7278 | 2017-03-16 | 14.6004 | -0.1274 | -0.87 |
| Avg | 15.9921 | 15.8239 | -0.17 | -1.02 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.66% | Feb Total +0.13% | Mar Total +0.31% | Apr Total +0.24% | May Total +0.43% | Jun Total +0.78% | Jul Total -0.78% | Aug Total -0.25% | Sep Total +1.32% | Oct Total +1.79% | Nov Total +0.04% | Dec Total -0.24% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.06% | 0.00% | +0.12% | -0.14% | +0.02% | +0.40% | -0.01% | +0.09% | -0.21% | +0.10% | 0.00% | +0.17% | +0.16% |
| 2 Avg -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.13% | 0.00% | -0.01% | +0.02% | +0.02% | +0.01% | -0.24% | +0.12% | -0.04% | -0.14% | -0.34% |
| 3 Avg -0.01% | -0.17% | -0.12% | +0.21% | -0.16% | -0.20% | -0.12% | -0.01% | +0.13% | +0.15% | +0.21% | -0.07% | +0.01% |
| 4 Avg -0.06% | +0.19% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.15% | -0.18% | +0.17% | +0.06% | -0.31% | -0.17% | -0.02% | +0.03% | -0.23% |
| 5 Avg -0.01% | +0.16% | +0.19% | +0.13% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.45% | +0.12% | -0.01% | +0.02% | -0.05% |
| 6 Avg -0.03% | -0.19% | +0.11% | -0.24% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.04% | +0.30% | -0.11% | +0.19% |
| 7 Avg +0.02% | +0.10% | -0.08% | -0.22% | 0.00% | -0.03% | +0.07% | -0.07% | +0.02% | 0.00% | +0.23% | +0.12% | +0.06% |
| 8 Avg +0.05% | -0.01% | -0.14% | +0.11% | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.07% | +0.08% | +0.37% | +0.06% | +0.15% | -0.01% | -0.20% |
| 9 Avg -0.01% | +0.13% | -0.09% | -0.17% | -0.17% | +0.24% | -0.01% | -0.01% | +0.06% | -0.15% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.10% |
| 10 Avg +0.06% | -0.17% | +0.05% | -0.06% | +0.10% | +0.14% | +0.04% | -0.03% | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.01% | +0.33% | +0.13% |
| 11 Avg -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.11% | +0.01% | -0.07% | +0.10% | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.06% | +0.10% | -0.12% | +0.12% |
| 12 Avg +0.06% | -0.09% | +0.09% | +0.10% | +0.03% | -0.11% | +0.12% | +0.11% | +0.05% | +0.12% | +0.08% | +0.04% | +0.22% |
| 13 Avg 0.00% | -0.32% | +0.16% | -0.14% | -0.04% | +0.18% | -0.12% | +0.05% | -0.04% | -0.03% | +0.10% | +0.09% | +0.08% |
| 14 Avg 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.05% | +0.06% | -0.08% | -0.12% | 0.00% | +0.13% | +0.10% | +0.32% | +0.10% | -0.10% | -0.35% |
| 15 Avg +0.07% | +0.02% | +0.08% | +0.24% | +0.02% | +0.11% | +0.11% | +0.11% | +0.14% | -0.17% | +0.01% | +0.09% | +0.12% |
| 16 Avg +0.00% | -0.20% | +0.07% | -0.04% | +0.11% | -0.09% | +0.14% | -0.02% | +0.06% | -0.19% | -0.11% | +0.04% | +0.27% |
| 17 Avg +0.00% | +0.12% | -0.09% | +0.04% | -0.03% | +0.05% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.03% | +0.16% | -0.02% | -0.02% |
| 18 Avg 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.07% | +0.04% | 0.00% | +0.01% | -0.05% | -0.10% | -0.14% | +0.19% | +0.10% | +0.05% | -0.03% |
| 19 Avg +0.05% | +0.15% | -0.04% | +0.06% | +0.10% | +0.05% | +0.07% | +0.05% | +0.04% | +0.21% | +0.05% | -0.09% | -0.07% |
| 20 Avg +0.10% | +0.05% | +0.10% | +0.20% | +0.20% | +0.06% | +0.27% | -0.06% | -0.03% | +0.02% | +0.07% | -0.09% | +0.35% |
| 21 Avg -0.06% | -0.11% | +0.05% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.07% | -0.16% | +0.17% | -0.28% | +0.08% | +0.03% | +0.10% | -0.39% |
| 22 Avg +0.00% | +0.05% | +0.01% | +0.08% | -0.08% | -0.07% | +0.15% | -0.23% | +0.25% | -0.12% | +0.05% | +0.05% | -0.08% |
| 23 Avg +0.03% | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.13% | +0.19% | +0.02% | +0.18% | -0.16% | +0.15% | +0.02% | +0.20% | 0.00% | -0.09% |
| 24 Avg -0.03% | -0.12% | -0.22% | +0.02% | +0.15% | -0.11% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.13% | +0.08% | -0.10% | +0.06% | +0.02% |
| 25 Avg +0.06% | +0.08% | +0.10% | +0.17% | +0.21% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.10% | +0.14% | +0.07% | +0.07% | +0.06% | -0.06% |
| 26 Avg -0.01% | -0.12% | +0.08% | -0.05% | +0.01% | +0.02% | -0.01% | +0.01% | -0.23% | +0.31% | -0.07% | -0.04% | +0.02% |
| 27 Avg +0.01% | +0.13% | +0.03% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.23% | +0.08% | +0.14% | +0.05% | 0.00% | +0.13% |
| 28 Avg +0.05% | +0.04% | +0.11% | +0.09% | +0.24% | +0.24% | +0.06% | -0.23% | +0.01% | +0.19% | +0.07% | -0.17% | +0.01% |
| 29 Avg +0.02% | +0.03% | - | +0.33% | -0.14% | +0.10% | +0.19% | -0.08% | +0.21% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.33% | +0.03% |
| 30 Avg -0.04% | -0.02% | - | -0.18% | -0.10% | -0.11% | +0.05% | -0.07% | +0.19% | -0.11% | +0.04% | +0.07% | -0.18% |
| 31 Avg -0.05% | -0.20% | - | -0.01% | - | -0.07% | - | 0.00% | +0.02% | - | +0.07% | - | -0.17% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
