Check historical price trends and seasonality for Lean Hogs Futures (CME) (HE=F).
Lean Hogs Futures (CME) (HE=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +4.50%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 1 for 30 days) is +2.29%.
2 wins 6 losses with a win rate of 25.00%.
1) Overview:
Lean Hogs Futures typically experience a strong bullish phase from February through July. This uptrend begins in early February, gaining momentum throughout the spring, peaking around June 17 with an average gain of +26.5%. Following this peak, prices tend to decline significantly through November, reaching a low point around November 21 with an average loss of -5.5%. The market then shows a tendency to recover slightly into the end of the year, with a modest increase into December 31, averaging +4.4%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Potential buying opportunities arise during the pullback in the fall. Specifically, the period leading up to November 21, which sees an average decline of -5.5%, could present an attractive entry point for long positions. This decline is often attributed to seasonal factors related to hog production cycles. Traders might consider initiating positions in late October or early November, anticipating a rebound towards the end of December.
3) Summary:
A seasonal investment strategy for Lean Hogs Futures could involve entering long positions around late October/early November, capitalizing on the seasonal dip. The target exit point would be around June, capturing the significant price appreciation typically observed during the spring and early summer months. However, it's crucial to monitor market conditions and adjust positions accordingly, as seasonality represents an average tendency and not a guaranteed outcome.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-03-01 | 88.0750 | 2024-03-30 | 86.6250 | -1.4500 | -1.65 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-01 | 84.9500 | 2023-03-30 | 76.4500 | -8.5000 | -10.01 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-01 | 106.2000 | 2022-03-30 | 104.5250 | -1.6750 | -1.58 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-01 | 87.7250 | 2021-03-30 | 100.9250 | 13.2000 | 15.05 |
| 2019 | 2019-03-01 | 56.4000 | 2019-03-30 | 77.3750 | 20.9750 | 37.19 |
| 2018 | 2018-03-01 | 66.9750 | 2018-03-30 | 57.2500 | -9.7250 | -14.52 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-01 | 68.4250 | 2017-03-30 | 65.6250 | -2.8000 | -4.09 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-01 | 70.4000 | 2016-03-30 | 68.9250 | -1.4750 | -2.10 |
| Avg | 78.6438 | 79.7125 | 1.07 | 2.29 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.50% | Feb Total +7.51% | Mar Total +0.34% | Apr Total +9.05% | May Total +6.48% | Jun Total -0.08% | Jul Total -1.38% | Aug Total -14.88% | Sep Total +2.62% | Oct Total -3.75% | Nov Total -1.37% | Dec Total +8.54% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.02% | 0.00% | -0.05% | +0.66% | -0.63% | +0.90% | +0.09% | -0.15% | -0.51% | +0.61% | +0.24% | -0.79% | -0.10% |
| 2 Avg -0.08% | -0.42% | +0.34% | -0.29% | -1.27% | -0.18% | +0.07% | +0.37% | -0.10% | -0.34% | +0.71% | +0.19% | -0.06% |
| 3 Avg -0.20% | -1.09% | -0.11% | +0.22% | -1.54% | +0.06% | -0.73% | +0.18% | -0.49% | +0.80% | +0.57% | -0.57% | +0.29% |
| 4 Avg +0.03% | +0.60% | +0.32% | -0.54% | -0.31% | +0.97% | -0.22% | 0.00% | +0.11% | +0.33% | -0.37% | 0.00% | -0.47% |
| 5 Avg +0.12% | +0.51% | -0.03% | +0.59% | -0.08% | -0.39% | -0.69% | +0.43% | +0.08% | +0.44% | +0.73% | +0.07% | -0.17% |
| 6 Avg -0.17% | -0.66% | -0.10% | 0.00% | +0.41% | -0.31% | +0.71% | -0.22% | -0.40% | -0.36% | +0.50% | -1.33% | -0.22% |
| 7 Avg +0.05% | -0.68% | -0.02% | +0.25% | +0.73% | +0.08% | -0.18% | -0.39% | +0.18% | +0.07% | -0.14% | +0.79% | -0.03% |
| 8 Avg +0.11% | +0.41% | +0.60% | +0.92% | -0.22% | -0.11% | +0.51% | -0.48% | -0.18% | -0.07% | +0.34% | -0.55% | +0.19% |
| 9 Avg +0.07% | +0.43% | +0.15% | -0.33% | +0.06% | -0.19% | +0.09% | +0.51% | +0.27% | -0.28% | +0.17% | -0.24% | +0.24% |
| 10 Avg +0.22% | +0.03% | +0.12% | +0.67% | +0.07% | +0.14% | +0.11% | -0.14% | +0.54% | +0.25% | +0.19% | +0.51% | +0.20% |
| 11 Avg +0.04% | -0.47% | +0.28% | +0.40% | -0.38% | -0.13% | +0.04% | +0.27% | +0.14% | 0.00% | +0.36% | -0.17% | +0.11% |
| 12 Avg +0.17% | +0.47% | +0.04% | -0.14% | +0.13% | +0.30% | -0.05% | +0.21% | -0.02% | +0.41% | +0.01% | +0.44% | +0.22% |
| 13 Avg -0.05% | -0.60% | +0.19% | -0.76% | +0.35% | -0.08% | +0.11% | +0.37% | +0.22% | +0.08% | -0.04% | -0.45% | +0.05% |
| 14 Avg 0.00% | +0.62% | +0.29% | +0.17% | +0.25% | +0.11% | +0.05% | +0.04% | -0.01% | -0.84% | +0.05% | -0.83% | +0.06% |
| 15 Avg +0.05% | +0.21% | +3.81% | +0.13% | +3.16% | +4.54% | +1.63% | +0.02% | -12.00% | +0.93% | -5.00% | -0.09% | +3.26% |
| 16 Avg +0.48% | -0.42% | +1.98% | -0.67% | +0.90% | +1.75% | +0.31% | +1.97% | -3.04% | +0.21% | -1.10% | +1.15% | +2.68% |
| 17 Avg -0.17% | +0.05% | +0.28% | +0.82% | +0.11% | -0.47% | +0.55% | -1.08% | +0.58% | +0.26% | -4.11% | -0.30% | +1.26% |
| 18 Avg +0.27% | -0.09% | +2.25% | +0.20% | +3.94% | -0.10% | -0.22% | -2.37% | -0.53% | +0.52% | 0.00% | -0.20% | -0.14% |
| 19 Avg -0.06% | -0.23% | -0.87% | -0.22% | +0.34% | -0.65% | -0.30% | +0.48% | +0.72% | +0.04% | +0.12% | -0.37% | +0.19% |
| 20 Avg -0.06% | +0.73% | -0.66% | +0.12% | +0.28% | +0.48% | -0.26% | -0.39% | +0.41% | -0.13% | -0.78% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| 21 Avg +0.08% | +0.23% | +1.01% | +0.16% | +0.66% | +0.23% | -0.23% | +0.34% | -0.91% | -1.28% | +0.23% | -0.42% | +0.91% |
| 22 Avg -0.01% | +0.24% | -0.04% | -0.18% | +0.62% | -0.62% | -1.08% | +0.60% | -0.31% | -0.09% | -0.45% | +0.65% | +0.58% |
| 23 Avg +0.09% | +0.43% | -0.31% | +0.46% | +0.71% | +0.05% | -0.55% | +0.97% | -1.34% | +0.37% | +0.31% | +0.25% | -0.28% |
| 24 Avg -0.03% | -0.16% | +0.14% | +0.28% | +0.57% | -0.56% | -1.23% | -0.33% | +0.10% | +0.45% | +0.48% | +0.24% | -0.31% |
| 25 Avg +0.27% | +0.38% | -0.55% | +0.79% | -0.55% | -0.03% | +0.35% | +0.32% | +0.09% | +1.20% | +0.79% | +0.41% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.01% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.55% | +0.44% | +0.16% | -0.29% | +1.19% | -0.60% | +0.26% | -0.22% | -0.11% |
| 27 Avg +0.09% | -0.02% | -1.05% | -0.61% | +1.05% | 0.00% | +0.05% | -0.27% | +1.10% | +0.01% | -0.07% | +0.21% | +0.71% |
| 28 Avg -0.11% | +0.08% | -0.50% | -0.56% | +0.22% | -0.62% | +0.35% | -0.58% | -0.82% | +0.76% | +0.84% | -0.15% | -0.33% |
| 29 Avg -0.09% | -0.28% | - | -0.37% | -0.55% | +0.30% | +0.68% | -0.57% | +0.09% | -0.58% | +0.23% | +0.16% | -0.10% |
| 30 Avg -0.04% | -0.37% | - | -1.04% | +0.56% | +0.65% | -0.18% | -0.68% | +0.06% | -0.53% | +0.65% | +0.46% | +0.04% |
| 31 Avg -0.16% | -0.42% | - | -0.69% | - | -0.10% | - | -0.51% | -0.10% | - | +0.55% | - | +0.17% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
