Check historical price trends and seasonality for FedEx (FDX).
FedEx (FDX) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +11.56%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Mar 3 for 60 days) is -0.87%.
3 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 42.86%.
1) Overview:
FedEx's historical seasonality shows a distinct pattern throughout the year. The stock tends to decline in early March, bottoming around March 12 with an average drop of -3.8%. A strong bullish phase then begins, extending through the rest of the year, culminating in significant gains in December, with an average increase of +16.6% by December 13 and +11.5% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most prominent dip opportunity appears in early to mid-March. Specifically, around March 12, the stock tends to experience a pullback of -3.8% on average. This dip could be attributed to general market sentiment or sector-specific concerns during that period. The stock then rebounds strongly from late March through the end of the year, making this a potentially attractive entry point.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to investing in FedEx might involve capitalizing on the weakness observed in early to mid-March. Consider establishing a position around March 12, anticipating a subsequent rally throughout the remainder of the year, especially towards December. Keep in mind that seasonality is just one factor, and broader market conditions and company-specific news should also be considered.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-03-03 | 258.7700 | 2025-05-01 | 210.0600 | -48.7100 | -18.82 |
| 2023 | 2023-03-03 | 209.0800 | 2023-05-01 | 230.5800 | 21.5000 | 10.28 |
| 2022 | 2022-03-03 | 221.3100 | 2022-05-01 | 198.7400 | -22.5700 | -10.20 |
| 2021 | 2021-03-03 | 258.7700 | 2021-05-01 | 290.3100 | 31.5400 | 12.19 |
| 2020 | 2020-03-03 | 133.0900 | 2020-05-01 | 118.2000 | -14.8900 | -11.19 |
| 2017 | 2017-03-03 | 194.3500 | 2017-05-01 | 188.2300 | -6.1200 | -3.15 |
| 2016 | 2016-03-03 | 143.8600 | 2016-05-01 | 165.1100 | 21.2500 | 14.77 |
| Avg | 202.7471 | 200.1757 | -2.57 | -0.87 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -1.17% | Feb Total +0.45% | Mar Total +4.68% | Apr Total -2.30% | May Total +0.59% | Jun Total +4.23% | Jul Total +3.89% | Aug Total +0.98% | Sep Total -3.70% | Oct Total +1.37% | Nov Total +6.96% | Dec Total -3.94% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.01% | 0.00% | +0.75% | +0.62% | -1.17% | -0.99% | -0.09% | +1.39% | -1.00% | +0.39% | -0.05% | +0.27% | -0.04% |
| 2 Avg +0.11% | +0.42% | +0.28% | -0.04% | +0.04% | +0.43% | +0.78% | +0.03% | -0.60% | -0.30% | 0.00% | +0.17% | +0.12% |
| 3 Avg -0.25% | -0.23% | -0.68% | -0.37% | -1.52% | +0.57% | -0.16% | -0.05% | +0.32% | -0.67% | -0.09% | +0.47% | -0.59% |
| 4 Avg +0.15% | +0.44% | +0.99% | -0.89% | -0.53% | +0.41% | +0.21% | 0.00% | -0.05% | +0.34% | +0.14% | +0.56% | +0.18% |
| 5 Avg +0.02% | +0.06% | -0.07% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.10% | +0.07% | +0.32% | -0.26% | +0.08% | +0.20% | +0.65% | -0.44% |
| 6 Avg +0.06% | +0.12% | +0.17% | -0.24% | +0.46% | -0.20% | +0.42% | -0.43% | +0.65% | -0.46% | -0.16% | +0.17% | +0.20% |
| 7 Avg -0.01% | -0.43% | +0.25% | -0.90% | -0.72% | -0.01% | +0.45% | +0.40% | +0.39% | -0.17% | -0.03% | +0.91% | -0.22% |
| 8 Avg +0.09% | +0.30% | -0.76% | -0.32% | +0.84% | +0.31% | +0.40% | +0.33% | +0.18% | -0.63% | -0.24% | +0.33% | +0.38% |
| 9 Avg -0.10% | +0.37% | -0.10% | +0.02% | +0.78% | +0.07% | -0.58% | -0.07% | -0.61% | +0.56% | -0.23% | -1.16% | -0.28% |
| 10 Avg +0.01% | -0.52% | -0.07% | +0.05% | -0.55% | -0.08% | -0.23% | +0.41% | +0.98% | +0.32% | -0.71% | +0.65% | -0.17% |
| 11 Avg +0.01% | +0.24% | -0.30% | -0.24% | +0.14% | -0.40% | -1.02% | +0.02% | -0.18% | +0.79% | -0.09% | +1.31% | -0.12% |
| 12 Avg +0.30% | +0.13% | +1.27% | -1.10% | +0.12% | -0.11% | +0.62% | +0.79% | +0.44% | +0.59% | +0.30% | -0.23% | +0.81% |
| 13 Avg +0.07% | -0.02% | +0.10% | +1.09% | +0.36% | -0.39% | +0.04% | -0.54% | +0.35% | -0.35% | -0.12% | +0.24% | +0.04% |
| 14 Avg +0.19% | +0.53% | -0.17% | -0.32% | +0.01% | -0.10% | +1.17% | -0.06% | +0.23% | +0.09% | +0.76% | +0.55% | -0.36% |
| 15 Avg -0.01% | -0.78% | +0.13% | -0.10% | -0.51% | -0.15% | +0.82% | +0.37% | -0.12% | -0.17% | +0.49% | +0.16% | -0.22% |
| 16 Avg -0.06% | -0.13% | +0.05% | -0.58% | -0.16% | -0.02% | -0.21% | +0.34% | +0.77% | -1.29% | +0.77% | -0.05% | -0.19% |
| 17 Avg +0.17% | -0.02% | -0.28% | +2.96% | +0.77% | +0.09% | -0.10% | -0.63% | -0.63% | -0.30% | -0.04% | -0.08% | +0.24% |
| 18 Avg -0.23% | +0.19% | -0.38% | +0.42% | 0.00% | +0.53% | +0.21% | +0.13% | -0.10% | -2.02% | -0.50% | +0.02% | -1.30% |
| 19 Avg +0.07% | -0.20% | +0.04% | +1.85% | +0.18% | -0.73% | -0.22% | +0.49% | +0.30% | +0.80% | -0.06% | -0.42% | -1.20% |
| 20 Avg -0.37% | -0.16% | +0.34% | -0.52% | -0.34% | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.13% | -0.33% | -1.80% | +0.07% | -0.65% | -1.35% |
| 21 Avg -0.02% | -0.26% | -0.57% | -0.01% | -0.61% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.17% | +0.26% | +0.71% | +0.19% | +0.53% | +0.04% |
| 22 Avg +0.05% | +0.11% | +0.12% | -0.04% | -0.18% | -0.15% | -0.30% | +0.50% | +0.14% | -0.69% | -0.22% | +0.84% | +0.40% |
| 23 Avg +0.03% | -0.03% | -0.03% | -1.11% | +0.54% | -0.18% | +0.45% | +0.43% | -0.31% | -0.27% | +0.15% | +0.47% | +0.21% |
| 24 Avg +0.17% | +0.25% | -0.29% | +1.46% | +0.45% | +0.06% | -0.02% | -0.08% | +0.32% | +0.03% | +0.15% | -0.01% | -0.34% |
| 25 Avg -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.26% | -0.08% | -0.91% | -0.02% | -1.25% | +0.55% | -0.23% | +0.47% | +0.33% | +0.60% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.33% | -0.02% | +0.06% | +1.84% | -0.57% | +1.01% | +1.53% | +0.28% | -0.55% | -0.43% | -0.18% | -0.03% | +1.01% |
| 27 Avg +0.13% | -0.11% | -0.41% | -0.55% | +1.15% | +1.16% | +0.29% | -0.48% | +0.06% | +0.32% | +0.12% | -0.12% | +0.18% |
| 28 Avg +0.12% | -0.07% | +0.28% | +0.39% | +0.27% | -0.16% | +0.46% | +0.01% | +0.40% | +0.57% | -0.05% | +0.03% | -0.64% |
| 29 Avg +0.17% | -0.30% | - | +0.97% | +0.08% | -0.10% | +0.35% | -0.16% | +0.42% | -0.01% | +0.24% | +0.44% | -0.04% |
| 30 Avg -0.07% | -0.85% | - | +0.53% | -0.51% | +0.28% | +0.18% | -0.31% | +0.12% | -0.20% | +0.01% | +0.37% | -0.41% |
| 31 Avg -0.09% | -0.10% | - | -0.09% | - | -0.33% | - | -0.06% | -0.41% | - | +0.21% | - | +0.16% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
