EURCHF (EURCHF=X) Anomalies

EURCHF (EURCHF=X) Anomaly Analysis

1) Overview:

EURCHF exhibits a generally positive trend from January through May, followed by a bearish phase through the summer and into autumn. The pair tends to climb steadily from January, reaching a peak around May 10 with an average gain of +1.1%. Subsequently, EURCHF experiences a decline, particularly from June onwards, bottoming out around December 31 with an average loss of -1.5%. This suggests a strong seasonal pattern of gains in the first half of the year and losses in the second half.

2) Buy-the-dip points:

Given the overall bearish trend from June to December, several periods present potential buying opportunities. Pullbacks in late June and throughout July, with losses ranging from -0.1% to -0.6%, could be considered entry points, anticipating a short-term rebound. The more significant dip occurring from mid-November through December, with losses between -0.8% and -1.5%, may represent a more substantial buying opportunity, expecting a reversal towards the new year. These pullbacks could be attributed to profit-taking after the bullish phase or seasonal shifts in market sentiment.

3) Summary:

The 10-year average seasonality data suggests a strategy of buying EURCHF during periods of weakness in the second half of the year, particularly in late November and December, to capitalize on the historical tendency for gains in the first half of the following year. Consider entering positions during the December decline, aiming to hold through May. However, be mindful of broader market conditions and economic factors that could override these seasonal tendencies.