Check historical price trends and seasonality for Dollar Tree (DLTR).
Dollar Tree (DLTR) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +9.02%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -8.44%.
1 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 20.00%.
1) Overview:
Dollar Tree exhibits a strong bullish tendency towards the end of the year, with a notable climb starting in November and peaking in December. From November 15th, the stock typically begins a significant upward trend, culminating in substantial gains by December 15th (+9.9%) and December 31st (+9.0%). Conversely, the period from early March through October tends to be bearish, with a pronounced dip occurring around September 22nd (-6.4%).
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Several opportunities to buy the dip present themselves throughout the year. The most significant pullback occurs in September, with the stock bottoming out around September 22nd (-6.4%). Another buying opportunity arises in March, particularly around March 18th, after a period of consistent decline. These pullbacks could be attributed to broader market corrections or sector-specific concerns, but historically, the stock rebounds strongly in the later months of the year.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to Dollar Tree would involve accumulating shares during the bearish phases, particularly in September around September 22nd. The strong positive seasonality in December suggests that holding through the end of the year could yield significant returns, especially with the stock peaking around December 15th and December 31st. Investors should be aware of the inherent risks associated with seasonality and consider other fundamental and technical factors before making investment decisions.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 71.0800 | 2025-03-16 | 64.5600 | -6.5200 | -9.17 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 135.9600 | 2024-03-15 | 127.4200 | -8.5400 | -6.28 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 91.0800 | 2020-03-15 | 74.7000 | -16.3800 | -17.98 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 93.8600 | 2019-03-16 | 99.8600 | 6.0000 | 6.39 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 112.8800 | 2018-03-16 | 95.7500 | -17.1300 | -15.18 |
| Avg | 100.9720 | 92.4580 | -8.51 | -8.44 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.33% | Feb Total -0.21% | Mar Total +2.39% | Apr Total +2.66% | May Total -0.84% | Jun Total +0.45% | Jul Total +3.44% | Aug Total -8.52% | Sep Total -2.19% | Oct Total +3.03% | Nov Total +8.63% | Dec Total +2.76% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.08% | 0.00% | +0.62% | +0.51% | +0.23% | -0.71% | -0.14% | +0.64% | -0.68% | -0.26% | -0.12% | +0.68% | +0.13% |
| 2 Avg +0.14% | +0.44% | +0.36% | -0.18% | -0.15% | +0.87% | +0.30% | -0.09% | -0.43% | +0.53% | -0.56% | +0.31% | +0.25% |
| 3 Avg -0.14% | -1.01% | -1.01% | -0.19% | -1.08% | 0.00% | +0.83% | +0.06% | +0.29% | -1.29% | +0.31% | +0.97% | +0.42% |
| 4 Avg -0.19% | +0.61% | +0.53% | -1.00% | -0.12% | -0.25% | -0.92% | 0.00% | -0.18% | -2.34% | +0.51% | -0.13% | +0.99% |
| 5 Avg +0.23% | +0.35% | -0.51% | +0.66% | +0.13% | -0.22% | +0.16% | +0.41% | -0.34% | +1.41% | -0.23% | +0.64% | +0.31% |
| 6 Avg +0.04% | +1.33% | +0.08% | +0.32% | +0.94% | +0.14% | -0.55% | -0.44% | +0.07% | +0.11% | -0.12% | -1.09% | -0.27% |
| 7 Avg +0.02% | -0.01% | -0.16% | -1.74% | +0.81% | +0.01% | -0.16% | +0.45% | +0.36% | +0.20% | -0.51% | +1.20% | -0.16% |
| 8 Avg -0.09% | -0.90% | +0.03% | +0.74% | -0.44% | +0.31% | +0.23% | -0.10% | -0.38% | -0.51% | +0.73% | -0.30% | -0.52% |
| 9 Avg +0.11% | -0.04% | +1.16% | +0.52% | +0.21% | -0.02% | -0.49% | +0.14% | -0.05% | -0.04% | +0.33% | -0.49% | +0.05% |
| 10 Avg +0.16% | -0.08% | -0.37% | +0.80% | +0.39% | -0.51% | -0.41% | +0.27% | +0.23% | -0.02% | +0.44% | +0.80% | +0.42% |
| 11 Avg -0.04% | +0.19% | -0.48% | -0.57% | +0.19% | -0.71% | +0.38% | +0.53% | -0.34% | +0.40% | -0.50% | +0.15% | +0.29% |
| 12 Avg 0.00% | +0.54% | +0.28% | -2.08% | -0.39% | +0.51% | +0.62% | +0.12% | +0.13% | +0.29% | +0.25% | -0.13% | -0.15% |
| 13 Avg -0.13% | -1.07% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -1.47% | -0.13% | +0.37% | +0.25% | -0.66% | +0.89% | +0.24% | +0.27% |
| 14 Avg +0.03% | -0.61% | +0.11% | -0.54% | +0.50% | +0.27% | +0.20% | +0.56% | +0.14% | -0.14% | -0.49% | +0.47% | -0.09% |
| 15 Avg +0.25% | -0.29% | +0.53% | +0.30% | +0.13% | +0.17% | -0.11% | -0.58% | +0.10% | -0.07% | +0.50% | +1.72% | +0.63% |
| 16 Avg +0.10% | -0.23% | +0.08% | -0.75% | +0.42% | +0.38% | -0.04% | +0.12% | +0.54% | +0.18% | +0.70% | -0.06% | -0.17% |
| 17 Avg +0.23% | +0.56% | +0.62% | +1.44% | +1.21% | -1.30% | -0.33% | +0.33% | -0.07% | +0.63% | +0.56% | -0.27% | -0.64% |
| 18 Avg -0.11% | -0.84% | +0.96% | -1.59% | +0.41% | -1.12% | +0.10% | +0.25% | -0.13% | +0.19% | +0.15% | +0.38% | -0.03% |
| 19 Avg +0.07% | +0.13% | +0.30% | +0.95% | -0.19% | +0.47% | -0.28% | +0.18% | +0.44% | -0.65% | -0.14% | -0.48% | +0.15% |
| 20 Avg +0.06% | -0.03% | +0.33% | +0.90% | -0.19% | -0.55% | +0.09% | +0.48% | -0.31% | -0.40% | +0.11% | -0.30% | +0.61% |
| 21 Avg +0.08% | +0.03% | -0.51% | +0.04% | -0.16% | +0.19% | +0.87% | -0.08% | +0.34% | -1.11% | +0.20% | +1.29% | -0.16% |
| 22 Avg -0.12% | +0.02% | -0.54% | -0.20% | -0.39% | +0.20% | +0.10% | +0.53% | -0.17% | -0.18% | +0.09% | +0.04% | -0.96% |
| 23 Avg -0.12% | -0.38% | -0.71% | -0.43% | +0.06% | -0.84% | +0.08% | -0.02% | -0.22% | +0.41% | -0.25% | +1.18% | -0.34% |
| 24 Avg +0.20% | +0.40% | -0.02% | +1.21% | -0.06% | +0.27% | -0.21% | -0.62% | -0.51% | +0.20% | +0.04% | +1.40% | +0.36% |
| 25 Avg -0.09% | +0.40% | +0.07% | -0.67% | +0.13% | -0.71% | -0.25% | +0.15% | -1.82% | -0.23% | +0.40% | +1.51% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.20% | -0.17% | -0.65% | +1.28% | +0.03% | +4.39% | -0.13% | -0.46% | -1.70% | +0.24% | +0.06% | -1.59% | +1.14% |
| 27 Avg +0.10% | -0.16% | -0.48% | +1.70% | +0.96% | -0.05% | +0.22% | -0.05% | -0.99% | +0.10% | +0.15% | -0.31% | +0.07% |
| 28 Avg +0.07% | -0.06% | -0.72% | +0.17% | -0.27% | +0.46% | +0.15% | +0.31% | +0.09% | +0.19% | +0.16% | +0.34% | -0.01% |
| 29 Avg +0.13% | +0.23% | - | +0.71% | -0.25% | 0.00% | +0.35% | -0.19% | -1.69% | +1.20% | -0.22% | +1.11% | +0.15% |
| 30 Avg -0.24% | -0.08% | - | +0.78% | -0.26% | +0.22% | -0.09% | +0.04% | -1.20% | -0.54% | -0.63% | -0.62% | -0.26% |
| 31 Avg -0.17% | +0.41% | - | -0.66% | - | -1.24% | - | +0.12% | -0.30% | - | +0.22% | - | +0.27% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
