Check historical price trends and seasonality for Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) (CL=F).
Crude Oil Futures (NYMEX) (CL=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +7.77%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 18 for 60 days) is +3.12%.
3 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 50.00%.
1) Overview:
Crude oil futures tend to experience a strong bullish phase from early January, reaching a peak around July 3 with an average gain of +13.1%. Following this peak, there's a bearish trend that extends through much of the late summer and fall, bottoming out around November. However, a late-year rally often occurs, culminating in a significant rise by December 31, averaging +7.7%. A notable dip occurs around April 20, with an average decline of -3.2%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period appears around April 20, presenting a potential buying opportunity after a -3.2% dip. This decline could be attributed to seasonal factors or profit-taking after the initial gains of the year. Another potential buying opportunity arises during the late summer to fall period, as the bullish trend that began in January cools off. The anticipation of increased demand during the winter months may fuel a rebound, making this a strategic entry point.
3) Summary:
A seasonal investment strategy for crude oil futures could involve entering long positions after the dip around April 20, or during the late summer/early fall pullback. The strongest period for holding long positions is from January through early July, capturing the bulk of the average annual gains. Consider exiting positions before the late summer decline, and potentially re-entering in late November or early December to capitalize on the year-end rally.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-01-18 | 74.0800 | 2024-03-17 | 81.0400 | 6.9600 | 9.40 |
| 2023 | 2023-01-18 | 79.4800 | 2023-03-18 | 66.7400 | -12.7400 | -16.03 |
| 2022 | 2022-01-18 | 85.4300 | 2022-03-18 | 104.7000 | 19.2700 | 22.56 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-18 | 53.8000 | 2019-03-18 | 59.0900 | 5.2900 | 9.83 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-18 | 63.9500 | 2018-03-18 | 62.3400 | -1.6100 | -2.52 |
| 2017 | 2017-01-18 | 51.0800 | 2017-03-18 | 48.7800 | -2.3000 | -4.50 |
| Avg | 67.9700 | 70.4483 | 2.48 | 3.12 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +2.89% | Feb Total +1.37% | Mar Total -3.10% | Apr Total -33.66% | May Total +5.52% | Jun Total +4.68% | Jul Total +0.36% | Aug Total -2.18% | Sep Total +1.45% | Oct Total -0.87% | Nov Total -2.48% | Dec Total +3.28% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.01% | 0.00% | -0.27% | +1.04% | +0.07% | -0.17% | +0.35% | +1.15% | -2.54% | -0.38% | +0.09% | +0.30% | +0.19% |
| 2 Avg +0.19% | +0.28% | -0.71% | +0.95% | +2.57% | -1.32% | +1.10% | -0.07% | -0.44% | +0.49% | -1.22% | +0.38% | +0.32% |
| 3 Avg +0.24% | +0.52% | +0.73% | +0.19% | +1.18% | -0.78% | -0.08% | +0.39% | +0.10% | -1.03% | +1.36% | -0.51% | +0.79% |
| 4 Avg +0.14% | -0.32% | -0.14% | +1.44% | -0.38% | +0.75% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.19% | -0.21% | +0.78% | +0.24% |
| 5 Avg +0.19% | +0.72% | -0.45% | +0.02% | -0.30% | +2.56% | +0.55% | -1.66% | -0.15% | 0.00% | +1.07% | +0.25% | -0.40% |
| 6 Avg -0.21% | -0.17% | -0.05% | -0.86% | -0.84% | +0.28% | +0.75% | +0.04% | -0.38% | -0.02% | +0.28% | -0.44% | -1.08% |
| 7 Avg -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.36% | +0.43% | -1.12% | -0.33% | +0.21% | 0.00% | -0.56% | -0.65% | +0.65% | -0.15% | +0.07% |
| 8 Avg +0.10% | -0.48% | +0.03% | -1.21% | +1.45% | +1.08% | -0.05% | +0.42% | +0.65% | -0.15% | +0.09% | -0.95% | +0.34% |
| 9 Avg -0.20% | +0.74% | -0.65% | -3.34% | -0.50% | -0.47% | 0.00% | -0.16% | +0.35% | +0.66% | +0.22% | +0.88% | -0.11% |
| 10 Avg +0.12% | +0.05% | +0.32% | +0.56% | +0.22% | +0.02% | -0.04% | +0.46% | +0.10% | -0.34% | -0.06% | +0.03% | +0.18% |
| 11 Avg +0.21% | +0.38% | -0.01% | +0.48% | +0.18% | +0.54% | -0.17% | -0.01% | +0.86% | +0.11% | -0.19% | +0.09% | +0.22% |
| 12 Avg +0.26% | +0.49% | +1.58% | -0.44% | +1.50% | +0.98% | -0.70% | -0.23% | +0.60% | +0.76% | -0.78% | -0.64% | -0.06% |
| 13 Avg +0.24% | +0.09% | +0.17% | +0.06% | +0.12% | +0.06% | +1.41% | +0.03% | -0.16% | -0.41% | +1.28% | -0.67% | +0.94% |
| 14 Avg -0.21% | +0.22% | +0.39% | -1.14% | -0.29% | +1.08% | -0.73% | -0.39% | -0.71% | +0.19% | -0.66% | -0.52% | +0.02% |
| 15 Avg -0.10% | -0.22% | +0.09% | -1.18% | -0.48% | +0.97% | +0.02% | +0.06% | -0.67% | +0.44% | -0.50% | +0.40% | -0.12% |
| 16 Avg +0.08% | -0.14% | +0.37% | -0.33% | +0.06% | +0.97% | +0.23% | -0.99% | -0.72% | +2.16% | -0.10% | -0.44% | -0.12% |
| 17 Avg -0.02% | -0.02% | +0.27% | +0.48% | -1.07% | +0.55% | -0.01% | -0.03% | +0.60% | -0.38% | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.20% |
| 18 Avg 0.00% | +0.38% | +0.02% | -2.97% | +0.27% | +0.31% | +1.01% | +0.46% | +0.91% | -0.07% | -0.39% | +0.39% | -0.35% |
| 19 Avg +0.12% | -0.05% | -0.19% | +2.69% | -0.72% | +0.31% | -0.03% | -0.78% | -0.39% | +0.21% | +0.68% | -0.84% | +0.60% |
| 20 Avg -2.63% | -0.30% | +0.19% | -0.79% | -30.61% | +0.10% | +0.65% | +0.19% | -0.10% | -0.32% | +0.05% | -0.13% | -0.51% |
| 21 Avg -0.89% | +0.61% | -0.34% | +1.13% | -12.91% | +0.27% | +0.26% | +0.04% | -0.57% | -0.19% | -0.37% | +0.98% | +0.42% |
| 22 Avg +0.61% | +0.44% | +1.08% | +0.40% | +4.17% | -0.59% | -0.15% | -0.17% | -0.16% | +0.65% | +0.81% | +0.50% | +0.30% |
| 23 Avg -0.02% | -0.16% | +0.34% | -0.28% | +1.96% | -0.56% | -0.84% | -0.94% | +1.16% | -0.73% | -0.16% | -0.71% | +0.70% |
| 24 Avg +0.11% | -0.19% | +0.13% | +0.64% | +0.12% | +0.71% | -1.14% | +0.53% | +0.15% | +0.56% | -0.24% | +0.51% | -0.43% |
| 25 Avg -0.12% | +0.11% | -0.65% | +0.02% | -0.67% | -0.97% | +0.19% | +0.51% | +0.53% | -0.12% | +0.50% | -0.86% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.14% | +1.02% | -0.48% | -0.17% | +0.03% | +0.98% | +0.74% | -0.24% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.20% | -0.90% | +1.15% |
| 27 Avg -0.10% | -0.44% | +0.13% | -0.15% | -2.05% | -0.40% | +0.34% | +0.14% | +0.28% | +0.64% | +0.76% | -0.37% | -0.01% |
| 28 Avg +0.02% | +0.04% | -0.16% | -0.54% | +0.47% | +0.71% | +0.67% | +0.13% | -0.21% | +0.90% | -1.82% | +0.30% | -0.24% |
| 29 Avg +0.30% | -0.08% | - | +0.09% | +1.92% | +0.08% | +0.75% | +0.88% | +0.80% | -0.75% | -0.33% | -0.31% | +0.31% |
| 30 Avg -0.08% | -0.39% | - | -0.11% | +1.97% | -0.82% | -0.42% | +0.11% | -1.15% | -0.37% | -0.43% | +0.32% | +0.39% |
| 31 Avg -0.36% | -0.13% | - | -0.20% | - | -1.38% | - | +0.55% | -0.31% | - | -0.78% | - | -0.28% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
