Check historical price trends and seasonality for CF Industries (CF).
CF Industries (CF) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +9.99%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Apr 17 for 60 days) is +5.12%.
4 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 57.14%.
1) Overview:
CF Industries exhibits a clear seasonal pattern. The stock tends to decline from early January, reaching a low point around March 23 with an average drop of -6.4%. A strong bullish phase then emerges, starting in August and extending through December, culminating in significant gains of +10.9% by December 27 and +9.9% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most prominent buy-the-dip opportunity appears in March, particularly around March 23, where the stock experiences an average decline of -6.4%. This pullback, likely driven by seasonal factors, presents a chance to enter before the subsequent rally. Another potential, albeit less pronounced, dip occurs in late June and early July, before the stock begins its ascent in August.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to CF Industries would involve accumulating shares during the weakness in March, capitalizing on the -6.4% dip around March 23. This allows investors to position themselves for the strong rally typically observed from August through December, aiming to capture the gains leading up to December 27 and December 31. However, it's important to consider broader market conditions and company-specific fundamentals alongside these seasonal tendencies.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-04-17 | 74.9000 | 2025-06-15 | 99.9300 | 25.0300 | 33.42 |
| 2024 | 2024-04-17 | 77.8000 | 2024-06-15 | 73.2600 | -4.5400 | -5.84 |
| 2023 | 2023-04-17 | 78.0100 | 2023-06-15 | 70.0800 | -7.9300 | -10.17 |
| 2020 | 2020-04-17 | 28.2900 | 2020-06-15 | 29.4300 | 1.1400 | 4.03 |
| 2019 | 2019-04-17 | 44.6200 | 2019-06-15 | 46.0000 | 1.3800 | 3.09 |
| 2018 | 2018-04-17 | 39.0800 | 2018-06-15 | 44.5800 | 5.5000 | 14.07 |
| 2017 | 2017-04-17 | 27.5100 | 2017-06-15 | 26.7500 | -0.7600 | -2.76 |
| Avg | 52.8871 | 55.7186 | 2.83 | 5.12 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -2.39% | Feb Total +1.45% | Mar Total -3.84% | Apr Total +0.91% | May Total +0.29% | Jun Total +0.44% | Jul Total +5.18% | Aug Total +2.71% | Sep Total +4.95% | Oct Total -2.66% | Nov Total +4.91% | Dec Total +2.60% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.36% | 0.00% | +1.66% | +1.24% | -0.02% | -0.61% | -0.20% | +0.24% | -0.07% | +0.51% | +0.53% | +1.66% | -0.66% |
| 2 Avg +0.15% | -0.15% | -0.89% | +0.33% | -0.40% | -0.06% | +1.11% | -0.34% | +0.84% | +1.04% | +0.58% | -0.54% | +0.33% |
| 3 Avg +0.14% | -0.25% | -0.05% | +0.23% | +0.31% | -0.22% | +0.80% | +0.83% | +0.71% | -1.32% | +0.36% | -0.42% | +0.68% |
| 4 Avg +0.18% | +1.13% | +0.78% | -0.81% | -0.31% | +0.32% | +0.47% | 0.00% | -0.33% | +0.14% | +0.61% | +0.76% | -0.63% |
| 5 Avg -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.69% | +0.70% | -0.12% | +0.38% | -0.01% | -1.02% | +0.09% | -0.07% | -0.11% | +0.44% | -0.58% |
| 6 Avg -0.06% | +0.16% | -0.67% | -0.37% | +0.03% | +0.15% | +1.64% | -0.68% | +0.18% | +0.11% | +0.02% | -0.81% | -0.45% |
| 7 Avg -0.02% | -0.64% | -0.87% | +0.43% | +0.67% | +0.23% | +0.24% | +0.44% | -1.23% | +0.19% | -0.55% | -0.02% | +0.93% |
| 8 Avg +0.09% | -0.32% | -0.72% | -0.41% | -0.44% | -0.05% | -0.35% | +0.07% | +1.07% | -0.04% | +0.11% | +1.77% | +0.33% |
| 9 Avg -0.03% | -0.01% | +0.58% | -2.21% | +0.87% | -0.81% | -0.50% | +0.06% | +0.68% | +0.08% | +0.28% | +0.82% | -0.16% |
| 10 Avg +0.06% | -0.92% | +0.75% | -0.16% | +0.31% | +0.53% | -0.96% | +0.52% | -0.38% | +0.58% | -0.73% | +1.01% | +0.23% |
| 11 Avg +0.25% | +0.66% | +0.74% | +0.28% | +0.72% | -0.91% | -0.77% | +0.52% | +0.73% | +0.29% | +0.03% | +0.22% | +0.54% |
| 12 Avg -0.07% | +0.57% | +0.56% | -1.32% | -0.19% | -0.82% | +0.51% | +0.62% | -0.03% | -0.49% | -0.39% | +0.15% | -0.06% |
| 13 Avg +0.19% | +0.12% | -0.82% | +0.66% | -0.28% | +0.06% | +1.24% | +1.03% | +0.14% | -0.37% | +0.69% | -0.18% | -0.05% |
| 14 Avg -0.34% | +0.10% | -0.87% | -0.69% | +0.30% | +0.31% | +0.02% | -0.41% | -0.88% | +0.85% | -1.60% | -0.70% | -0.44% |
| 15 Avg -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.43% | -0.74% | -0.30% | +1.13% | +0.05% | +0.79% | -0.16% | +0.03% | -1.07% | +0.33% | +0.33% |
| 16 Avg -0.10% | -0.80% | +0.62% | -2.41% | -0.11% | +0.85% | +0.63% | -0.66% | +0.02% | +0.27% | -0.11% | +0.26% | +0.23% |
| 17 Avg +0.03% | -0.52% | +0.21% | +1.08% | +0.76% | -0.06% | -0.38% | +0.01% | -0.45% | +0.46% | +0.48% | -1.30% | +0.05% |
| 18 Avg +0.06% | +0.13% | +0.25% | -1.28% | +0.31% | +0.10% | -0.14% | +0.34% | -0.35% | +0.50% | +0.11% | +0.95% | -0.23% |
| 19 Avg +0.04% | -0.60% | +0.48% | +0.74% | +0.01% | +0.41% | -0.12% | +0.38% | -0.48% | +0.99% | +0.07% | -0.92% | -0.45% |
| 20 Avg -0.04% | -0.19% | +0.51% | +0.16% | -0.37% | -0.49% | -0.41% | -0.06% | +0.29% | -0.59% | +0.33% | +0.02% | +0.37% |
| 21 Avg +0.16% | -0.28% | -0.11% | +0.67% | -0.94% | +0.65% | +0.64% | +0.10% | +0.01% | -0.77% | -0.03% | +0.97% | +1.04% |
| 22 Avg -0.27% | -0.90% | +0.85% | -2.40% | -0.56% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.41% | +0.10% | +0.19% | +0.15% | -0.09% | +0.16% |
| 23 Avg +0.01% | +0.65% | -0.32% | -0.67% | +0.23% | +0.82% | -1.27% | +0.43% | +0.53% | -0.01% | -0.99% | +0.20% | +0.49% |
| 24 Avg +0.06% | -0.40% | +0.35% | +1.41% | +0.49% | -1.13% | -0.97% | +0.26% | +0.46% | +0.68% | -1.01% | +0.82% | -0.18% |
| 25 Avg +0.23% | -0.17% | -0.21% | +0.77% | +0.08% | +0.15% | -0.57% | +1.08% | +0.54% | +0.21% | +0.69% | +0.19% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.09% | +0.02% | -0.33% | +0.90% | +0.62% | -0.11% | -0.22% | +0.30% | -0.02% | -0.11% | -0.84% | -0.11% | +0.98% |
| 27 Avg -0.11% | -0.43% | -0.20% | -0.42% | +0.28% | +0.20% | -0.69% | +0.29% | +0.07% | +0.57% | -0.95% | -0.32% | +0.23% |
| 28 Avg +0.09% | +1.21% | +0.27% | -0.28% | +0.41% | -0.16% | -0.31% | -0.71% | +0.53% | +1.54% | -0.40% | -0.51% | -0.49% |
| 29 Avg +0.11% | -0.03% | - | +0.44% | -0.11% | -0.54% | +0.45% | +0.60% | +0.51% | -0.69% | +0.32% | +0.40% | -0.16% |
| 30 Avg -0.04% | -0.25% | - | 0.00% | -1.35% | +0.12% | +0.68% | +0.09% | -0.20% | +0.18% | +0.79% | -0.12% | -0.36% |
| 31 Avg +0.14% | -0.20% | - | +0.28% | - | +0.04% | - | +0.48% | -0.21% | - | -0.03% | - | +0.60% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
