Check historical price trends and seasonality for Cocoa Futures (ICE US) (CC=F).
Cocoa Futures (ICE US) (CC=F) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +18.21%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is +14.26%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Cocoa futures typically experience a bearish start to the year, bottoming around January 8 with an average decrease of -1.8%. A strong bullish trend then emerges, starting in February and continuing through April, culminating in a significant peak around April 19 with an average increase of +19.2%. After April, the market consolidates gains through the summer and fall before another bullish surge in November and December, reaching a secondary peak around December 31 with an average increase of +18.2%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most prominent buy-the-dip opportunity arises in early January, specifically around January 8, after the initial bearish phase. This dip, averaging -1.8%, presents a chance to enter the market before the substantial rally that begins in February. Further, smaller pullbacks may occur in late May or early June, and again in September, offering additional, albeit less pronounced, buying opportunities before the year-end rally.
3) Summary:
A seasonal investment strategy for cocoa futures could involve establishing a long position around January 8 to capitalize on the subsequent rally into April. Consider taking profits near April 19, then potentially re-entering the market in November to benefit from the year-end surge, exiting again near December 31. However, be mindful of fundamental factors and broader market conditions that could influence price movements beyond these seasonal tendencies.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 10,502.0000 | 2025-03-16 | 7,728.0000 | -2,774.0000 | -26.41 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 4,429.0000 | 2024-03-15 | 8,018.0000 | 3,589.0000 | 81.03 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 2,712.0000 | 2020-03-15 | 2,482.0000 | -230.0000 | -8.48 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 2,322.0000 | 2019-03-16 | 2,197.0000 | -125.0000 | -5.38 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 1,932.0000 | 2018-03-16 | 2,522.0000 | 590.0000 | 30.54 |
| Avg | 4,379.4000 | 4,589.4000 | 210.00 | 14.26 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.45% | Feb Total +3.54% | Mar Total +3.85% | Apr Total +4.88% | May Total -0.40% | Jun Total -3.23% | Jul Total +0.06% | Aug Total +3.53% | Sep Total -4.12% | Oct Total -0.66% | Nov Total +4.51% | Dec Total +2.19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.13% | 0.00% | +1.24% | +1.11% | +0.58% | -1.32% | +0.21% | -0.91% | -1.31% | -0.12% | -1.21% | +0.51% | -0.39% |
| 2 Avg +0.05% | -0.16% | +0.01% | +0.31% | +1.49% | -0.70% | -0.88% | +0.18% | +0.02% | +0.27% | +0.46% | -0.53% | +0.11% |
| 3 Avg -0.15% | -0.17% | -0.19% | -0.85% | -0.76% | -0.52% | +0.37% | -0.20% | +0.34% | +0.17% | -0.61% | +0.78% | -0.17% |
| 4 Avg -0.20% | -0.29% | +0.17% | +0.68% | -0.83% | -0.18% | -0.46% | 0.00% | -0.35% | -0.74% | +0.15% | -0.12% | -0.42% |
| 5 Avg +0.07% | -0.40% | +0.25% | -0.29% | +0.14% | -0.15% | -0.07% | +0.21% | +0.87% | +0.22% | +0.14% | -0.24% | +0.12% |
| 6 Avg +0.15% | -0.57% | -0.07% | +0.90% | +0.59% | +0.03% | +0.89% | -0.21% | +0.83% | -0.12% | -0.18% | -0.25% | -0.03% |
| 7 Avg +0.16% | +0.85% | -0.18% | -0.49% | -0.89% | +1.80% | +0.09% | +0.03% | +0.66% | -0.22% | -0.42% | +0.44% | +0.27% |
| 8 Avg +0.00% | -1.02% | +1.10% | -0.11% | -0.21% | +0.42% | +0.85% | +0.10% | -0.94% | -0.56% | +0.50% | +0.05% | -0.17% |
| 9 Avg +0.41% | +0.61% | +0.30% | +0.12% | +1.15% | +0.56% | +0.37% | +0.92% | +0.71% | +0.62% | -0.26% | +0.05% | -0.25% |
| 10 Avg +0.13% | 0.00% | +0.04% | +0.60% | -0.53% | +0.47% | -0.57% | +0.01% | +0.07% | -0.32% | +0.29% | +0.35% | +1.14% |
| 11 Avg +0.08% | -0.47% | -0.65% | +0.29% | +0.90% | +0.22% | -0.51% | +0.39% | +0.46% | +0.55% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.04% |
| 12 Avg +0.37% | +0.37% | -0.06% | +0.35% | +0.48% | -0.13% | +1.44% | +0.51% | -0.58% | +0.84% | +0.25% | +0.53% | +0.40% |
| 13 Avg +0.22% | +0.59% | +1.11% | -0.68% | -0.17% | -0.91% | -0.33% | +0.08% | +0.06% | +0.52% | -0.07% | +0.49% | +1.98% |
| 14 Avg -0.21% | +0.31% | -0.48% | -0.81% | -0.14% | +0.44% | -0.03% | +0.24% | -1.01% | -0.30% | -0.23% | -0.50% | +0.02% |
| 15 Avg -0.05% | 0.00% | +1.47% | -0.22% | -0.70% | +0.09% | +0.27% | -0.91% | -0.63% | +0.91% | +0.38% | -0.29% | -1.01% |
| 16 Avg -0.43% | +0.34% | -0.50% | -0.38% | -0.09% | -1.57% | -0.52% | -0.81% | +0.07% | -3.36% | +0.44% | +1.84% | -0.60% |
| 17 Avg +0.14% | +1.39% | -0.09% | +0.49% | +1.64% | -0.16% | -0.39% | -2.25% | +1.02% | -0.03% | -0.15% | +0.42% | -0.26% |
| 18 Avg +0.28% | -0.30% | +0.52% | +0.51% | +1.34% | +0.09% | +0.10% | +1.14% | +0.23% | -0.27% | -0.87% | +0.01% | +0.85% |
| 19 Avg -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.82% | +0.71% | -0.13% | -0.65% | -0.86% | +0.36% | +0.29% | +0.67% | -0.69% | -0.22% |
| 20 Avg -0.28% | -0.61% | +0.28% | +0.93% | -1.01% | -0.42% | -1.51% | +0.41% | +0.17% | -0.45% | -0.23% | -0.19% | -0.75% |
| 21 Avg +0.08% | +0.19% | -0.90% | +0.11% | +1.00% | -0.09% | -0.68% | -0.06% | +0.39% | +0.06% | +0.23% | +0.34% | +0.40% |
| 22 Avg +0.18% | -0.24% | +0.35% | +1.05% | +0.20% | -0.34% | -0.18% | +1.45% | 0.00% | -0.70% | +0.77% | +0.37% | -0.54% |
| 23 Avg +0.20% | +0.15% | +1.19% | +0.17% | -0.95% | +0.59% | +1.06% | -0.10% | +0.21% | -0.47% | -0.11% | +0.08% | +0.53% |
| 24 Avg -0.09% | +0.16% | -0.84% | +0.10% | +0.79% | -0.64% | -1.28% | -0.57% | +0.94% | +0.43% | -0.79% | +0.09% | +0.50% |
| 25 Avg +0.05% | -0.69% | +0.55% | +0.84% | +0.16% | -0.52% | -0.20% | -0.26% | +1.26% | -0.53% | +0.32% | -0.40% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.25% | +0.33% | +0.74% | +0.22% | +0.90% | +0.48% | -0.51% | +0.99% | -0.58% | +0.09% | +0.61% | -0.09% | -0.19% |
| 27 Avg -0.20% | -1.01% | +0.06% | +0.07% | 0.00% | +0.18% | -1.15% | +0.23% | +0.08% | +0.05% | -0.25% | +0.06% | -0.77% |
| 28 Avg +0.06% | +0.30% | -1.79% | +0.29% | -0.45% | +0.61% | +0.99% | +0.43% | +0.51% | -0.38% | -0.36% | +0.49% | +0.11% |
| 29 Avg -0.02% | +0.16% | - | -0.28% | -0.17% | -0.12% | -0.24% | -0.55% | -0.45% | +0.32% | +0.16% | +1.10% | -0.19% |
| 30 Avg +0.14% | -0.23% | - | -0.09% | -0.31% | +1.48% | +0.27% | +0.25% | -0.15% | -0.91% | -0.09% | -0.09% | +1.38% |
| 31 Avg +0.07% | -0.01% | - | -0.27% | - | +0.05% | - | +0.18% | +0.29% | - | -0.12% | - | +0.37% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
