Check historical price trends and seasonality for CADJPY (CADJPY=X).
CADJPY (CADJPY=X) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +3.17%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -3.29%.
3 wins 4 losses with a win rate of 42.86%.
1) Overview:
CADJPY exhibits a clear seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. A bearish trend is observed in the first quarter, bottoming out around March 11 with a -1.6% average. From April, the currency pair begins a bullish climb, culminating in a significant peak around November 10, showing an average gain of +3.7%. The pair then maintains a relatively strong position through the end of the year, ending on December 31 with +2.9%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant pullback period occurs in early March, with the lowest point around March 11 (-1.6%). This dip presents a potential buying opportunity, anticipating a rebound starting in April and continuing through the summer months. Another, albeit smaller, dip occurs in late February and early March, also offering a chance to enter a long position before the spring rally. These pullbacks are likely driven by profit-taking after earlier gains or shifts in market sentiment, but the historical data suggests a strong tendency for recovery and further appreciation.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a potential strategy for CADJPY involves entering long positions during the pullback in early to mid-March, capitalizing on the subsequent bullish trend that typically unfolds through the spring, summer, and into the fall. Consider exiting or reducing positions around November, before the end-of-year consolidation. Keep in mind that seasonality is just one factor, and other economic indicators and global events should also be considered.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 109.0650 | 2025-03-16 | 102.5510 | -6.5140 | -5.97 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 108.5030 | 2024-03-15 | 109.5400 | 1.0370 | 0.96 |
| 2023 | 2023-01-16 | 95.5550 | 2023-03-16 | 96.5500 | 0.9950 | 1.04 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 84.2560 | 2020-03-15 | 74.9930 | -9.2630 | -10.99 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 81.9250 | 2019-03-16 | 83.8630 | 1.9380 | 2.37 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 88.9710 | 2018-03-16 | 81.4360 | -7.5350 | -8.47 |
| 2017 | 2017-01-16 | 86.9900 | 2017-03-16 | 85.2820 | -1.7080 | -1.96 |
| Avg | 93.6093 | 90.6021 | -3.01 | -3.29 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -0.02% | Feb Total -0.03% | Mar Total +0.14% | Apr Total +0.82% | May Total +0.55% | Jun Total +1.25% | Jul Total -0.43% | Aug Total -0.34% | Sep Total +0.40% | Oct Total +1.11% | Nov Total -0.24% | Dec Total +0.28% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.10% | 0.00% | +0.35% | -0.35% | +0.14% | +0.36% | -0.06% | +0.21% | -0.15% | +0.21% | +0.26% | -0.02% | +0.30% |
| 2 Avg -0.05% | +0.02% | -0.05% | +0.08% | +0.01% | -0.08% | +0.27% | -0.07% | -0.46% | +0.07% | +0.02% | -0.07% | -0.31% |
| 3 Avg -0.03% | -0.14% | -0.32% | +0.28% | -0.11% | -0.29% | +0.07% | +0.10% | +0.01% | +0.12% | -0.16% | +0.05% | +0.01% |
| 4 Avg -0.01% | +0.21% | +0.35% | -0.31% | 0.00% | -0.41% | +0.16% | +0.17% | -0.21% | -0.30% | +0.07% | +0.14% | +0.05% |
| 5 Avg +0.02% | +0.38% | +0.05% | +0.10% | -0.05% | -0.08% | +0.02% | +0.20% | -0.36% | +0.18% | -0.01% | -0.11% | -0.05% |
| 6 Avg -0.08% | -0.23% | -0.09% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.44% | +0.06% | +0.05% | +0.23% | +0.06% | +0.03% |
| 7 Avg +0.03% | +0.24% | -0.22% | -0.17% | -0.09% | +0.05% | +0.33% | -0.22% | -0.11% | +0.22% | +0.06% | +0.20% | +0.03% |
| 8 Avg +0.04% | +0.06% | -0.25% | +0.09% | -0.01% | +0.31% | +0.17% | -0.03% | +0.13% | -0.03% | +0.18% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| 9 Avg -0.04% | +0.20% | -0.15% | -0.59% | -0.07% | +0.01% | 0.00% | +0.03% | +0.18% | -0.26% | +0.06% | +0.15% | -0.03% |
| 10 Avg +0.06% | -0.14% | +0.11% | +0.02% | +0.24% | +0.17% | -0.15% | +0.04% | -0.02% | +0.14% | -0.04% | +0.26% | +0.13% |
| 11 Avg -0.01% | -0.26% | -0.17% | -0.11% | +0.23% | +0.21% | -0.05% | -0.06% | -0.03% | -0.09% | +0.12% | -0.13% | +0.18% |
| 12 Avg +0.08% | 0.00% | +0.13% | +0.22% | +0.07% | -0.18% | +0.02% | +0.04% | +0.15% | +0.21% | +0.12% | -0.11% | +0.32% |
| 13 Avg +0.02% | -0.21% | +0.32% | -0.12% | +0.12% | +0.12% | -0.15% | +0.25% | -0.09% | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.01% | +0.04% |
| 14 Avg +0.01% | -0.09% | -0.04% | +0.12% | +0.10% | -0.16% | -0.04% | +0.20% | +0.24% | +0.12% | +0.21% | -0.20% | -0.29% |
| 15 Avg +0.04% | +0.13% | +0.21% | +0.16% | -0.08% | +0.09% | -0.06% | +0.09% | +0.01% | -0.20% | +0.01% | +0.07% | +0.06% |
| 16 Avg +0.01% | -0.14% | +0.15% | +0.02% | -0.19% | +0.04% | +0.26% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.08% | +0.22% | +0.19% |
| 17 Avg 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.20% | +0.21% | +0.11% | +0.22% | -0.27% | -0.08% | +0.03% | -0.11% | +0.18% | -0.09% | -0.03% |
| 18 Avg -0.06% | -0.20% | +0.10% | +0.07% | -0.08% | 0.00% | -0.25% | -0.16% | -0.26% | +0.14% | +0.18% | -0.09% | -0.16% |
| 19 Avg +0.03% | +0.02% | -0.15% | -0.19% | +0.18% | -0.03% | +0.11% | +0.16% | +0.18% | +0.12% | +0.03% | +0.06% | -0.19% |
| 20 Avg +0.04% | -0.01% | +0.07% | +0.14% | +0.08% | +0.05% | +0.29% | -0.17% | -0.22% | +0.08% | 0.00% | -0.15% | +0.31% |
| 21 Avg -0.04% | +0.16% | -0.02% | +0.07% | -0.05% | +0.02% | -0.18% | +0.24% | -0.12% | -0.12% | +0.02% | -0.13% | -0.40% |
| 22 Avg +0.01% | +0.08% | -0.12% | +0.03% | -0.15% | +0.09% | +0.23% | -0.09% | +0.19% | -0.20% | 0.00% | +0.13% | -0.02% |
| 23 Avg +0.04% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.07% | +0.15% | -0.06% | +0.33% | -0.07% | +0.08% | +0.04% | +0.14% | +0.12% | -0.08% |
| 24 Avg -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.21% | -0.17% | +0.07% | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.06% | +0.05% | +0.09% | -0.08% | +0.05% | +0.02% |
| 25 Avg +0.04% | +0.10% | +0.19% | +0.12% | +0.06% | -0.10% | -0.04% | -0.15% | +0.17% | +0.11% | -0.02% | +0.15% | -0.05% |
| 26 Avg -0.02% | -0.16% | +0.10% | +0.20% | -0.03% | +0.09% | -0.04% | +0.04% | -0.12% | +0.06% | -0.19% | -0.20% | +0.05% |
| 27 Avg +0.04% | +0.25% | -0.10% | +0.11% | -0.05% | +0.17% | -0.06% | -0.19% | +0.17% | -0.12% | -0.03% | +0.10% | +0.25% |
| 28 Avg +0.03% | -0.03% | -0.05% | +0.07% | +0.31% | +0.20% | +0.11% | -0.26% | +0.12% | +0.12% | +0.06% | -0.29% | +0.02% |
| 29 Avg +0.06% | +0.13% | - | +0.43% | +0.06% | +0.04% | +0.28% | -0.10% | +0.02% | +0.19% | -0.15% | -0.31% | +0.01% |
| 30 Avg -0.02% | -0.06% | - | 0.00% | +0.02% | -0.20% | +0.10% | -0.02% | +0.35% | -0.28% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.04% |
| 31 Avg -0.05% | -0.21% | - | -0.01% | - | +0.13% | - | 0.00% | -0.20% | - | -0.02% | - | -0.04% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
