Check historical price trends and seasonality for American Homes 4 Rent (AMH).
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +9.11%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is +2.52%.
4 wins 1 losses with a win rate of 80.00%.
1) Overview:
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. The stock tends to decline into late March, bottoming around March 23 with an average loss of -3.6%. From there, a strong bullish phase emerges, lasting until early September, culminating around September 2 with an impressive gain of +13.2%. The stock then experiences a pullback before recovering into the end of the year, reaching +9.1% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most significant dip opportunity appears around March 23, where the stock has historically shown a -3.6% decline. This pullback could be attributed to general market sentiment or sector-specific concerns early in the year. Another potential, albeit less pronounced, dip occurs after the September peak, offering a chance to buy before the year-end rally.
3) Summary:
Seasonality suggests a strategic approach to AMH investment. Consider accumulating shares around March 23 to capitalize on the subsequent bullish trend. Be prepared to take profits around September 2, and potentially re-enter the position during the late-year consolidation phase for a final push into December 31.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 34.8600 | 2025-03-16 | 35.4000 | 0.5400 | 1.55 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 35.2900 | 2024-03-15 | 36.2800 | 0.9900 | 2.81 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 27.0700 | 2020-03-15 | 27.9400 | 0.8700 | 3.21 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 21.2100 | 2019-03-16 | 22.7600 | 1.5500 | 7.31 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 20.3200 | 2018-03-16 | 19.8600 | -0.4600 | -2.26 |
| Avg | 27.7500 | 28.4480 | 0.70 | 2.52 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total 0.00% | Feb Total -1.16% | Mar Total +2.86% | Apr Total +2.44% | May Total +2.02% | Jun Total +2.95% | Jul Total +2.92% | Aug Total +0.97% | Sep Total -4.18% | Oct Total -1.77% | Nov Total +2.69% | Dec Total -0.36% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.16% | 0.00% | +0.51% | +0.11% | -0.26% | -0.05% | +1.08% | +0.57% | +0.32% | +0.09% | +0.06% | -0.33% | -0.15% |
| 2 Avg +0.02% | -0.49% | +0.01% | +0.96% | -0.43% | +0.17% | +0.49% | -0.03% | -0.01% | +0.07% | -0.17% | -0.44% | +0.05% |
| 3 Avg -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.03% | +0.49% | -0.45% | -0.19% | -0.15% | +0.29% | -0.29% | -0.21% | -0.32% | +0.68% | +0.01% |
| 4 Avg +0.05% | -0.38% | +0.20% | +0.50% | -0.53% | +0.32% | +0.15% | 0.00% | +0.15% | -0.23% | +0.20% | +0.55% | -0.34% |
| 5 Avg -0.11% | -0.40% | -0.53% | +0.17% | -0.04% | +0.33% | +0.01% | +0.16% | +0.10% | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.28% | -0.32% |
| 6 Avg +0.20% | +0.22% | +0.03% | -0.19% | +1.26% | +0.39% | -0.41% | +0.22% | +0.10% | +0.26% | -0.01% | +0.56% | -0.03% |
| 7 Avg -0.07% | -0.75% | -0.08% | -0.30% | -0.22% | +0.66% | +0.18% | -0.29% | +0.26% | +0.10% | -0.60% | +0.03% | +0.13% |
| 8 Avg +0.02% | +0.28% | -0.57% | +0.04% | +0.23% | -0.36% | +0.13% | +0.34% | +0.06% | -0.51% | +0.15% | +0.25% | +0.19% |
| 9 Avg -0.09% | -0.44% | +0.06% | -0.53% | +0.96% | -0.01% | -0.26% | +0.26% | -0.15% | -0.28% | +0.11% | -0.71% | -0.06% |
| 10 Avg -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.08% | +0.11% | -0.19% | -0.04% | -0.13% | +0.04% | -0.40% | -0.35% | -0.14% | +0.79% | +0.06% |
| 11 Avg +0.07% | +0.52% | -0.01% | -0.50% | +0.39% | -0.02% | -0.58% | -0.05% | -0.37% | +0.51% | +0.14% | +0.58% | +0.21% |
| 12 Avg -0.10% | +0.10% | +0.21% | -0.20% | +0.01% | -0.53% | +0.05% | -0.19% | +0.40% | +0.02% | -0.20% | -0.27% | -0.54% |
| 13 Avg +0.18% | -0.02% | +0.54% | +1.03% | -0.04% | +0.20% | -0.49% | +0.11% | 0.00% | -0.50% | +0.48% | +0.36% | +0.48% |
| 14 Avg -0.12% | -0.33% | -0.29% | -0.11% | +0.57% | -0.17% | -0.31% | +0.22% | -0.18% | +0.14% | -0.46% | +0.14% | -0.62% |
| 15 Avg +0.14% | +0.11% | +0.61% | +0.38% | -0.16% | +0.31% | +0.50% | +0.23% | +0.32% | -0.17% | -0.38% | -0.12% | -0.01% |
| 16 Avg -0.14% | +0.24% | -0.28% | -1.03% | -0.47% | -0.38% | +0.01% | +0.19% | +0.27% | -0.06% | +0.15% | -0.23% | -0.15% |
| 17 Avg +0.15% | +0.19% | -0.34% | +0.45% | +1.00% | +0.20% | +0.44% | +0.17% | +0.23% | -0.25% | +0.54% | -0.39% | -0.42% |
| 18 Avg -0.16% | -0.29% | -0.22% | -0.75% | +0.42% | -0.27% | +0.01% | -0.13% | -0.43% | -0.42% | +0.33% | +0.20% | -0.37% |
| 19 Avg -0.08% | +0.23% | +0.01% | -0.98% | +0.48% | -0.03% | +0.19% | -0.06% | +0.05% | -0.03% | -0.43% | -0.16% | -0.21% |
| 20 Avg -0.02% | +0.02% | -0.12% | -0.48% | -0.54% | +0.12% | +0.18% | +0.16% | +0.08% | -0.14% | +0.30% | +0.28% | -0.12% |
| 21 Avg -0.11% | +0.02% | -0.31% | -0.13% | -0.95% | -0.07% | +0.25% | +0.14% | -0.05% | -0.57% | +0.29% | -0.11% | +0.14% |
| 22 Avg +0.14% | +0.25% | -0.34% | -0.38% | +0.67% | -0.10% | +0.18% | +0.62% | -0.06% | -0.01% | +0.36% | +0.16% | +0.32% |
| 23 Avg -0.08% | -0.13% | +0.11% | -1.14% | -0.14% | -0.02% | +0.30% | -0.03% | -0.01% | -0.23% | +0.21% | +0.13% | +0.02% |
| 24 Avg +0.12% | -0.22% | -0.39% | +1.77% | +0.05% | +0.69% | +0.04% | -0.50% | -0.09% | -0.52% | +0.05% | +0.44% | +0.08% |
| 25 Avg -0.02% | -0.29% | +0.40% | +0.36% | -0.26% | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.74% | -0.07% | +0.21% | +0.15% | +0.30% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.10% | +0.26% | -0.07% | +1.01% | +0.21% | +0.50% | -0.13% | +0.35% | -0.11% | -0.77% | -0.67% | +0.19% | +0.44% |
| 27 Avg -0.06% | -0.40% | -0.23% | +0.68% | +0.63% | +0.13% | +0.40% | -0.29% | +0.13% | -0.66% | -1.14% | -0.14% | +0.18% |
| 28 Avg +0.30% | +0.64% | +0.05% | +0.66% | +0.29% | -0.04% | +0.68% | +0.66% | +0.25% | +0.51% | -0.04% | -0.14% | +0.04% |
| 29 Avg +0.13% | 0.00% | - | +0.57% | -0.43% | +0.10% | -0.03% | +0.96% | +0.01% | -0.16% | -0.09% | +0.10% | +0.38% |
| 30 Avg +0.20% | +0.15% | - | +0.18% | +0.36% | +0.53% | +0.31% | -0.26% | +0.46% | +0.18% | -0.04% | +0.26% | +0.08% |
| 31 Avg +0.08% | +0.92% | - | +0.13% | - | -0.22% | - | -0.20% | +0.01% | - | -0.23% | - | +0.17% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
