Check historical price trends and seasonality for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO).
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +10.70%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -6.26%.
3 wins 2 losses with a win rate of 60.00%.
1) Overview:
American Eagle Outfitters exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern over the past 10 years. The stock tends to decline from March through May, reaching a low point around May 31 with an average decrease of -8.7%. A strong bullish phase then emerges in late November and continues through December, peaking around December 11 with an average increase of +11.4% and remaining high through December 31 at +10.7%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
A significant buying opportunity typically arises in late May, specifically around May 31, as the stock experiences an average pullback of -8.7%. This decline is followed by a period of recovery and consolidation throughout the summer. Another potential buying opportunity occurs during the first half of October, as the stock tends to experience a dip before its late-year rally.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach to investing in American Eagle Outfitters would involve accumulating shares during the late May pullback. Investors should also consider adding to their positions during the October dip in anticipation of the significant rally that typically occurs from late November through December. The data suggests a strong seasonal tendency for AEO to perform well during the holiday shopping season.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 15.5800 | 2025-03-16 | 11.0600 | -4.5200 | -29.01 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 20.5500 | 2024-03-15 | 23.1600 | 2.6100 | 12.70 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 14.7100 | 2020-03-15 | 10.1000 | -4.6100 | -31.34 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 19.9000 | 2019-03-16 | 20.7800 | 0.8800 | 4.42 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 17.4400 | 2018-03-16 | 19.5200 | 2.0800 | 11.93 |
| Avg | 17.6360 | 16.9240 | -0.71 | -6.26 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.06% | Feb Total -0.58% | Mar Total -4.25% | Apr Total +0.27% | May Total -6.00% | Jun Total +2.36% | Jul Total +5.90% | Aug Total +5.04% | Sep Total +3.96% | Oct Total -3.19% | Nov Total +11.43% | Dec Total +2.41% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg -0.14% | 0.00% | +0.40% | -0.67% | -1.07% | -0.69% | +0.89% | +0.68% | -1.06% | +0.25% | -0.65% | +0.13% | +0.15% |
| 2 Avg +0.21% | +0.24% | +0.37% | +1.32% | -0.44% | +1.15% | +0.15% | +0.21% | -0.73% | -0.32% | -0.47% | +0.36% | +0.68% |
| 3 Avg +0.04% | -0.46% | -0.84% | -2.28% | -1.74% | +0.17% | +2.53% | +0.71% | +1.12% | -1.07% | -0.59% | +0.93% | +1.94% |
| 4 Avg +0.77% | +0.99% | +0.69% | +0.32% | +0.65% | -0.51% | +0.87% | 0.00% | +2.93% | +3.35% | -0.37% | -0.11% | +0.44% |
| 5 Avg -0.20% | -0.76% | -0.32% | -0.47% | -0.01% | -0.17% | +0.62% | -0.31% | -1.11% | +0.67% | -0.01% | +1.11% | -1.60% |
| 6 Avg +0.15% | +0.02% | +0.20% | -0.03% | +2.06% | -0.16% | -0.56% | +0.06% | +1.39% | -0.38% | -1.25% | -0.44% | +0.92% |
| 7 Avg -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.43% | -0.39% | +0.57% | -0.22% | +0.31% | -1.39% | +0.33% | -0.46% | -0.08% | +0.57% | +0.87% |
| 8 Avg +0.03% | -1.14% | +0.44% | -0.27% | -0.28% | +1.05% | +0.68% | +0.67% | +1.19% | -1.60% | -0.59% | -0.22% | +0.37% |
| 9 Avg +0.09% | +0.06% | +0.56% | -0.41% | +2.06% | -0.54% | -0.28% | -0.07% | -1.64% | +0.81% | -0.45% | +0.99% | +0.03% |
| 10 Avg -0.05% | -0.24% | -0.29% | -0.69% | -0.26% | -0.31% | -2.07% | +0.18% | +1.01% | +1.09% | -0.71% | +1.69% | +0.04% |
| 11 Avg +0.10% | +1.79% | -0.44% | -1.20% | +0.24% | -1.44% | -0.11% | +0.67% | +1.40% | +0.66% | -0.33% | +0.14% | -0.20% |
| 12 Avg -0.07% | +0.09% | -0.16% | -0.53% | -0.76% | +0.36% | +0.22% | -0.19% | 0.00% | +0.50% | -0.12% | -0.44% | +0.21% |
| 13 Avg -0.15% | -0.32% | -0.22% | +0.63% | -0.32% | +0.01% | -0.77% | +0.38% | +1.00% | -0.38% | +0.16% | -0.14% | -1.88% |
| 14 Avg +0.12% | +0.85% | +0.41% | +0.59% | +1.34% | +0.26% | -0.38% | +0.04% | -1.78% | +0.87% | +0.11% | +0.14% | -0.98% |
| 15 Avg +0.20% | -0.59% | -0.18% | +0.20% | -0.89% | +0.23% | +0.42% | +0.19% | +0.19% | +0.76% | +0.47% | +1.52% | +0.03% |
| 16 Avg +0.09% | -0.59% | +0.10% | -1.25% | +0.23% | +0.23% | +0.58% | +0.92% | +1.28% | +0.29% | +0.27% | -0.37% | -0.64% |
| 17 Avg +0.18% | +0.64% | -0.14% | +0.99% | +1.49% | -0.78% | 0.00% | -0.09% | -0.96% | -1.09% | +0.56% | +1.44% | +0.16% |
| 18 Avg -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.29% | -0.72% | -0.39% | -0.38% | -0.49% | -0.24% | +0.07% | -0.42% | +0.10% | -0.06% | +0.49% |
| 19 Avg -0.03% | -0.29% | -0.51% | +1.62% | +0.19% | +0.06% | -0.63% | +0.81% | +0.12% | +0.03% | -0.73% | -1.19% | +0.10% |
| 20 Avg -0.33% | -0.37% | +0.35% | -0.08% | -0.89% | -1.07% | -0.23% | -0.43% | 0.00% | -0.54% | +0.27% | -0.49% | -0.46% |
| 21 Avg -0.04% | +0.94% | -0.52% | -0.33% | -0.09% | -0.30% | +0.80% | -0.04% | -0.37% | -0.12% | +0.52% | -1.34% | +0.44% |
| 22 Avg +0.03% | +0.63% | +0.63% | -0.83% | -2.39% | -1.17% | +0.73% | +0.12% | +0.18% | -0.45% | +0.85% | +2.82% | -0.73% |
| 23 Avg +0.28% | +0.38% | -0.25% | -2.38% | +1.04% | -0.74% | +0.68% | +1.37% | +1.09% | +0.03% | +0.59% | +1.45% | +0.11% |
| 24 Avg +0.36% | +0.60% | +0.75% | +1.02% | +0.58% | +0.33% | +0.52% | -0.23% | +0.52% | -0.01% | +0.35% | -0.08% | 0.00% |
| 25 Avg +0.18% | +0.19% | -0.88% | +0.74% | -0.85% | +0.20% | -0.86% | +0.92% | -0.61% | +0.87% | +1.12% | +1.36% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.30% | +0.16% | +0.26% | +0.75% | +0.25% | +1.76% | -0.56% | -0.03% | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.06% | -0.07% | +1.45% |
| 27 Avg +0.31% | -1.30% | -0.03% | -0.24% | +0.95% | +0.90% | +0.01% | +0.46% | +1.47% | +1.20% | -0.59% | +1.09% | -0.17% |
| 28 Avg +0.22% | +0.12% | -0.24% | -0.04% | +0.48% | -0.47% | -0.47% | +0.65% | +0.52% | +0.81% | -0.19% | +1.36% | +0.10% |
| 29 Avg +0.02% | -0.22% | - | +0.66% | +0.07% | -1.04% | +0.37% | +1.08% | -1.27% | -1.29% | -0.09% | +1.23% | +0.67% |
| 30 Avg -0.68% | +0.10% | - | -0.08% | -1.54% | -0.82% | -0.59% | -0.62% | -0.96% | +0.03% | -0.85% | -1.94% | -0.24% |
| 31 Avg -0.47% | -0.23% | - | -0.22% | - | -1.90% | - | -0.59% | -0.03% | - | -0.43% | - | +0.10% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
