Check historical price trends and seasonality for Archer Daniels Midland (ADM).
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +6.93%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Feb 8 for 30 days) is +3.73%.
7 wins 1 losses with a win rate of 87.50%.
1) Overview:
ADM's 10-year average seasonality reveals a distinct pattern of weakness followed by strength. The stock tends to experience a bearish phase from early January, bottoming out around February 8 with an average loss of -3.9%. This is followed by a strong bullish trend that begins in April and extends through October, peaking around October 25 with an average gain of +8.9%. The stock maintains positive momentum through the end of the year, with another notable peak around December 31, showing an average increase of +6.9%.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
The most prominent buy-the-dip opportunity for ADM historically occurs in February. The stock tends to decline throughout January and into early February, presenting a chance to enter at a lower price point. Specifically, February 8 has shown an average dip of -3.9%, making it a potential entry point. This pullback might be attributed to early-year market adjustments or sector-specific factors, followed by a rebound as the year progresses.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach to ADM would involve considering entry points during the observed weakness in February. Specifically, targeting February 8, which shows an average dip of -3.9%, could be a favorable entry point. Investors should then consider holding through October, potentially capitalizing on the +8.9% gain seen around October 25, or holding through the end of the year to capture the +6.9% gain seen around December 31.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2024-02-08 | 52.7000 | 2024-03-08 | 54.8100 | 2.1100 | 4.00 |
| 2023 | 2023-02-08 | 81.6000 | 2023-03-09 | 77.9900 | -3.6100 | -4.42 |
| 2022 | 2022-02-08 | 76.6900 | 2022-03-09 | 81.7800 | 5.0900 | 6.64 |
| 2021 | 2021-02-08 | 53.6500 | 2021-03-09 | 57.9900 | 4.3400 | 8.09 |
| 2019 | 2019-02-08 | 41.7600 | 2019-03-09 | 41.9200 | 0.1600 | 0.38 |
| 2018 | 2018-02-08 | 41.3500 | 2018-03-09 | 43.3000 | 1.9500 | 4.72 |
| 2017 | 2017-02-08 | 43.4600 | 2017-03-09 | 44.4200 | 0.9600 | 2.21 |
| 2016 | 2016-02-08 | 33.3000 | 2016-03-08 | 36.0300 | 2.7300 | 8.20 |
| Avg | 53.0638 | 54.7800 | 1.72 | 3.73 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -1.45% | Feb Total -1.90% | Mar Total +4.09% | Apr Total +2.55% | May Total -0.86% | Jun Total +0.25% | Jul Total +4.37% | Aug Total +1.03% | Sep Total -0.84% | Oct Total +1.12% | Nov Total +0.58% | Dec Total -0.67% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.01% | 0.00% | +0.24% | +0.27% | -0.25% | -0.87% | -0.27% | +0.17% | -0.06% | +0.13% | -0.18% | +0.90% | +0.01% |
| 2 Avg -0.09% | -0.04% | -1.14% | +0.90% | -0.21% | -1.16% | +0.91% | +0.43% | -0.89% | +0.30% | -0.34% | +0.28% | -0.07% |
| 3 Avg +0.09% | -0.31% | +0.10% | +0.11% | +0.24% | -0.34% | +0.07% | +0.35% | +0.32% | -0.12% | +0.70% | +0.09% | -0.11% |
| 4 Avg -0.04% | -0.32% | -0.05% | -0.01% | -0.91% | +0.24% | +0.42% | 0.00% | -0.14% | +0.32% | +0.72% | -0.34% | -0.41% |
| 5 Avg -0.18% | -0.29% | -1.25% | +0.28% | -0.06% | +0.04% | -0.06% | -0.56% | +0.31% | -0.18% | +0.73% | -0.89% | -0.19% |
| 6 Avg +0.15% | +0.06% | +0.25% | +0.45% | +0.64% | +0.19% | +0.58% | -0.29% | +0.04% | -0.42% | -0.01% | +0.04% | +0.24% |
| 7 Avg +0.14% | -0.35% | +0.01% | +0.03% | +0.04% | +0.17% | +0.19% | +0.28% | +0.51% | +0.22% | -0.02% | +0.34% | +0.31% |
| 8 Avg -0.02% | +0.16% | -0.59% | -0.35% | +0.15% | +0.55% | -0.07% | +0.23% | +0.11% | -0.13% | -0.38% | +0.11% | 0.00% |
| 9 Avg -0.08% | -0.10% | +0.31% | -0.88% | +1.01% | -0.70% | -0.35% | -0.06% | +0.11% | +0.23% | -0.10% | -0.43% | 0.00% |
| 10 Avg +0.26% | +0.06% | +0.09% | +1.02% | +0.30% | +0.38% | -0.30% | +0.87% | +0.16% | +0.07% | +0.35% | +0.18% | -0.04% |
| 11 Avg -0.12% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.52% | +0.08% | -0.57% | -0.76% | -0.08% | -0.28% | +0.47% | -0.14% | -0.40% | +0.90% |
| 12 Avg +0.08% | -0.15% | +0.19% | -0.69% | +0.31% | +0.24% | +0.48% | 0.00% | +0.12% | +0.34% | +0.04% | -0.47% | +0.50% |
| 13 Avg +0.09% | +0.36% | -0.22% | +1.25% | -0.48% | -0.59% | +0.16% | +0.01% | +0.34% | -0.02% | +0.32% | +0.33% | -0.40% |
| 14 Avg -0.04% | +0.04% | +0.15% | +0.01% | +0.63% | -0.09% | -0.54% | -0.17% | 0.00% | +0.15% | -0.48% | +0.31% | -0.45% |
| 15 Avg +0.05% | -0.57% | +0.72% | -0.16% | -0.42% | -0.22% | +0.41% | +0.02% | -0.34% | +0.07% | +0.47% | +0.25% | +0.40% |
| 16 Avg +0.11% | +0.15% | +0.17% | -0.60% | +0.13% | +0.38% | +0.38% | -0.19% | +0.50% | +0.38% | -0.01% | +0.12% | -0.08% |
| 17 Avg +0.14% | +0.29% | +0.03% | +1.11% | +1.02% | -0.03% | -0.46% | +0.34% | -0.22% | -0.36% | +0.41% | -0.20% | -0.26% |
| 18 Avg -0.16% | -0.27% | -0.01% | -0.70% | +0.41% | -0.12% | -0.09% | +0.09% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.33% | +0.40% | -1.16% |
| 19 Avg -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.43% | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.18% | +0.61% | +0.32% | -0.62% | +0.01% |
| 20 Avg -0.19% | +0.02% | +0.02% | -0.69% | -0.03% | +0.20% | -0.10% | +0.16% | -0.28% | -0.56% | +0.03% | -0.40% | -0.62% |
| 21 Avg +0.08% | +0.03% | +0.41% | +0.68% | -0.56% | -0.12% | +0.17% | -0.04% | +0.20% | -0.32% | +0.09% | +0.32% | +0.14% |
| 22 Avg -0.19% | -1.90% | +0.39% | -0.41% | -0.06% | +0.01% | -0.32% | +0.27% | +0.14% | -0.53% | +0.24% | +0.32% | -0.42% |
| 23 Avg -0.04% | +0.11% | +0.12% | -0.89% | -0.01% | +0.65% | -0.78% | +0.28% | +0.45% | -0.86% | +0.23% | -0.15% | +0.34% |
| 24 Avg +0.09% | +0.03% | +0.12% | +1.36% | +0.28% | +0.03% | -0.15% | +0.07% | -0.09% | -0.17% | -0.48% | +0.27% | -0.16% |
| 25 Avg +0.11% | -0.34% | -0.06% | +0.67% | -1.08% | +0.29% | -0.37% | +0.80% | +0.59% | -0.13% | +0.59% | +0.36% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.17% | +0.84% | -0.76% | +1.00% | -0.08% | +0.39% | +0.06% | +0.79% | -0.32% | -0.15% | -0.16% | -0.02% | +0.46% |
| 27 Avg +0.08% | -0.20% | -0.78% | +0.32% | +1.15% | +0.77% | -0.38% | +0.15% | +0.06% | +0.16% | -0.74% | +0.11% | +0.40% |
| 28 Avg +0.15% | +0.69% | +0.22% | -0.05% | +0.23% | -0.15% | +0.30% | +0.14% | +0.08% | +0.36% | +0.18% | -0.08% | -0.15% |
| 29 Avg +0.14% | +0.60% | - | -0.09% | +0.67% | -0.24% | +0.46% | +0.57% | +0.33% | -0.62% | -0.14% | +0.11% | -0.09% |
| 30 Avg +0.03% | +0.39% | - | +0.97% | -0.58% | -0.17% | +0.89% | +0.14% | -0.32% | +0.01% | -0.74% | -0.22% | -0.04% |
| 31 Avg -0.09% | -0.25% | - | -0.28% | - | +0.09% | - | -0.23% | -0.18% | - | -0.08% | - | +0.28% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
