Check historical price trends and seasonality for Arch Capital Group (ACGL).
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +17.28%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 60 days) is -0.32%.
2 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 40.00%.
1) Overview:
Arch Capital Group tends to experience a strong bullish phase from January through August, with gains accelerating significantly. From January 16 to August 31, the stock demonstrates a consistent upward trend, culminating in an average gain of +14.1%. Following this peak, the stock consolidates through October, maintaining gains around +13% to +15%. The year concludes with a final bullish surge in November and December, reaching +18.1% by November 25 and +17.2% by December 31.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Potential buying opportunities may arise during pullbacks in March, specifically around March 23, where the average gain drops to +0.8%. Another possible entry point occurs in early April, around April 4, where the average gain decreases to +2.9%. These dips could represent temporary corrections within the broader upward trend, providing chances to enter at lower prices before the stock resumes its climb towards the end of the year. Investors should also monitor for potential pullbacks in late October, around October 27, where the average gain decreases to +13.3%.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to investing in Arch Capital Group involves capitalizing on predictable patterns. Consider initiating positions during pullback periods in March or April to benefit from the subsequent bullish trends. The strongest gains tend to occur leading up to November 25, so holding through this period could be advantageous, while also considering the gains through December 31.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 96.1000 | 2025-03-16 | 92.5700 | -3.5300 | -3.67 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 78.1700 | 2024-03-15 | 91.8800 | 13.7100 | 17.54 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 44.5600 | 2020-03-15 | 32.7700 | -11.7900 | -26.46 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 27.8700 | 2019-03-16 | 32.8700 | 5.0000 | 17.94 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 30.4600 | 2018-03-16 | 28.3467 | -2.1133 | -6.94 |
| Avg | 55.4320 | 55.6873 | 0.26 | -0.32 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.71% | Feb Total +3.85% | Mar Total -1.06% | Apr Total -1.00% | May Total +3.32% | Jun Total +0.24% | Jul Total +2.37% | Aug Total +4.70% | Sep Total -0.92% | Oct Total +2.42% | Nov Total +1.90% | Dec Total +0.42% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.05% | 0.00% | +0.65% | -0.20% | -0.31% | -0.06% | +0.41% | +0.35% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.15% | -0.22% | +0.20% |
| 2 Avg +0.12% | -0.28% | +0.05% | +0.85% | -0.02% | +0.15% | +0.87% | -0.53% | +0.40% | -0.07% | 0.00% | -0.24% | +0.23% |
| 3 Avg -0.01% | -0.05% | +0.02% | -0.26% | -0.46% | +0.01% | +0.44% | +0.02% | +0.08% | +0.30% | +0.09% | +0.14% | -0.44% |
| 4 Avg +0.01% | +0.14% | +0.17% | -0.01% | -1.23% | +0.30% | +0.07% | 0.00% | -0.12% | +0.04% | +1.10% | -0.39% | +0.08% |
| 5 Avg +0.05% | -0.24% | +0.12% | +0.03% | +0.40% | +0.07% | +0.74% | -0.28% | -0.09% | -0.53% | +0.39% | +0.25% | -0.25% |
| 6 Avg +0.31% | +0.73% | +0.25% | +0.07% | +0.81% | +0.06% | +0.14% | +0.07% | +0.84% | -0.13% | +0.01% | +0.73% | +0.11% |
| 7 Avg +0.02% | 0.00% | +0.46% | -0.90% | +0.03% | +0.77% | -0.08% | -0.04% | +0.54% | +0.01% | -0.37% | +0.32% | -0.55% |
| 8 Avg +0.22% | -0.02% | +0.25% | -0.05% | +0.58% | +0.94% | +0.37% | -0.26% | +0.07% | +0.13% | +0.41% | -0.05% | +0.27% |
| 9 Avg -0.06% | -0.26% | +0.59% | -1.11% | +0.27% | -0.35% | -1.21% | +0.08% | +0.26% | -0.15% | +0.25% | +0.91% | +0.02% |
| 10 Avg +0.01% | +0.30% | -0.14% | +0.16% | -0.11% | +0.39% | -0.97% | +0.61% | +0.16% | -0.44% | -0.11% | +0.53% | -0.21% |
| 11 Avg -0.08% | +0.12% | -0.29% | +0.08% | +0.30% | -0.31% | -1.06% | -0.01% | +0.46% | +0.42% | -0.39% | -0.33% | +0.08% |
| 12 Avg -0.14% | +0.32% | -0.04% | -1.64% | +0.17% | -0.95% | +0.25% | -0.12% | -0.27% | +0.23% | +0.11% | -0.16% | +0.39% |
| 13 Avg +0.07% | -0.05% | +1.11% | +0.67% | -0.59% | -0.75% | -0.56% | +0.01% | +0.26% | +0.46% | +0.52% | +0.41% | -0.60% |
| 14 Avg +0.03% | +0.24% | -0.01% | +0.58% | +0.37% | +0.18% | -0.25% | +0.17% | +0.38% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.39% | -0.62% |
| 15 Avg +0.12% | +0.30% | +0.94% | -0.22% | -0.67% | +0.08% | -0.10% | +0.51% | +0.47% | -0.43% | -0.36% | +0.10% | +0.81% |
| 16 Avg +0.08% | +0.62% | -0.22% | -1.22% | +0.02% | +0.38% | -0.06% | +0.34% | +0.82% | -0.26% | +0.02% | +0.42% | +0.07% |
| 17 Avg +0.10% | +0.24% | +0.03% | +0.92% | +0.38% | -0.21% | -0.11% | +0.33% | -0.50% | -0.03% | +0.57% | -0.17% | -0.25% |
| 18 Avg -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.01% | -1.29% | +0.04% | +0.79% | -0.18% | +0.21% | +0.05% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.28% | -0.28% |
| 19 Avg -0.12% | +0.06% | +0.37% | -0.43% | +0.13% | -0.16% | -0.24% | -0.55% | +0.05% | +0.21% | -0.49% | -0.08% | -0.23% |
| 20 Avg +0.03% | -0.39% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.03% | +0.89% | +0.29% | +0.27% | +0.09% | -0.08% | -0.05% | -0.28% | -0.08% |
| 21 Avg +0.04% | -0.22% | -0.41% | +0.27% | -1.12% | +0.54% | +0.15% | +0.39% | +0.16% | -0.49% | +0.50% | +0.48% | +0.21% |
| 22 Avg +0.00% | -0.26% | +0.12% | -0.52% | -0.06% | +0.10% | +0.15% | +0.29% | -0.21% | -0.02% | -0.11% | +0.38% | +0.14% |
| 23 Avg -0.09% | +0.16% | +0.08% | -1.26% | -0.04% | -0.19% | +0.26% | +0.21% | +0.16% | -0.62% | -0.32% | +0.28% | +0.25% |
| 24 Avg +0.15% | +0.28% | +0.10% | +1.32% | -0.21% | +0.06% | -0.26% | -0.20% | +0.46% | +0.31% | +0.07% | +0.20% | -0.37% |
| 25 Avg +0.06% | +0.04% | +0.17% | +0.49% | -0.15% | -0.01% | +0.03% | +0.24% | -0.19% | +0.04% | -0.11% | +0.20% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.07% | -0.12% | -0.14% | +1.89% | -0.02% | +0.37% | -0.94% | +0.56% | -0.34% | -0.26% | -0.64% | -0.04% | +0.48% |
| 27 Avg +0.14% | -0.31% | -0.04% | +0.12% | +1.13% | +0.76% | +0.15% | -1.00% | +0.69% | +0.55% | -0.61% | -0.08% | +0.37% |
| 28 Avg +0.03% | +0.22% | -0.18% | +0.32% | -0.42% | -0.65% | +0.50% | -0.38% | -0.23% | +0.56% | +0.90% | -0.28% | +0.03% |
| 29 Avg +0.22% | -0.38% | - | +0.52% | +0.51% | -0.27% | +0.61% | +0.64% | +0.43% | -0.20% | +0.44% | -0.16% | +0.23% |
| 30 Avg +0.22% | +0.30% | - | +0.78% | -0.69% | +0.20% | +0.84% | +0.69% | +0.02% | -0.22% | +0.81% | -0.29% | +0.01% |
| 31 Avg -0.05% | +0.30% | - | -0.87% | - | +0.18% | - | -0.26% | -0.16% | - | +0.19% | - | +0.30% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
