Check historical price trends and seasonality for Alcoa (AA).
Alcoa (AA) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +20.90%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 7 days) is -3.57%.
0 wins 5 losses with a win rate of 0.00%.
1) Overview:
Alcoa (AA) tends to experience a bearish phase from early January through July. The most significant decline typically occurs around June 19, with an average drop of -8.8%. A strong bullish phase then emerges, starting in September and extending through December, culminating in substantial gains around December 28 and December 31, averaging +21.1% and +20.9% respectively.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Several periods offer potential "buy-the-dip" opportunities. The most pronounced pullback occurs from January through July, with the steepest declines concentrated around June 19 (-8.8%). Another opportunity arises in August, with declines bottoming out around August 19 (-5.6%). These pullbacks could be attributed to various market factors, but historically, they precede a strong recovery and rally into the end of the year.
3) Summary:
Based on historical seasonality, a strategic approach to Alcoa (AA) might involve accumulating shares during the bearish periods, particularly around June 19, to capitalize on the subsequent year-end rally. Consider that the period from January to July has historically presented buying opportunities. The significant gains typically seen in December suggest a potential exit point for short-term gains or a hold for longer-term investment.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 38.9100 | 2025-01-22 | 38.7800 | -0.1300 | -0.33 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 27.8700 | 2024-01-22 | 27.6200 | -0.2500 | -0.90 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 17.7800 | 2020-01-22 | 16.5900 | -1.1900 | -6.69 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 28.9800 | 2019-01-22 | 27.8100 | -1.1700 | -4.04 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 56.2400 | 2018-01-22 | 52.9400 | -3.3000 | -5.87 |
| Avg | 33.9560 | 32.7480 | -1.21 | -3.57 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total -6.51% | Feb Total +4.45% | Mar Total -0.45% | Apr Total +1.68% | May Total -1.24% | Jun Total +0.53% | Jul Total +4.53% | Aug Total +0.89% | Sep Total -1.60% | Oct Total +1.98% | Nov Total +11.08% | Dec Total +7.73% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.45% | 0.00% | +0.69% | +3.58% | +0.60% | -1.01% | +1.00% | -0.09% | -2.74% | +0.97% | +0.42% | +1.54% | +0.48% |
| 2 Avg +0.26% | -0.08% | -0.48% | +1.32% | -0.01% | +0.24% | +1.07% | +0.95% | -1.25% | -0.14% | +0.70% | +0.22% | +0.59% |
| 3 Avg +0.22% | -1.03% | +1.32% | +0.43% | -0.84% | -0.64% | +0.92% | +0.51% | +1.06% | -0.95% | +0.65% | +0.97% | +0.18% |
| 4 Avg +0.45% | +0.80% | +2.59% | -0.03% | -1.24% | +0.76% | +0.63% | 0.00% | -0.37% | +0.35% | +0.97% | +0.99% | -0.09% |
| 5 Avg +0.05% | +0.32% | -0.28% | -0.40% | -0.50% | +0.11% | +0.46% | -0.71% | +0.74% | +0.33% | -0.18% | +1.38% | -0.68% |
| 6 Avg +0.04% | +0.11% | +0.46% | -0.32% | +0.96% | -0.89% | +1.10% | -0.12% | +0.84% | -1.53% | -0.63% | +0.56% | +0.01% |
| 7 Avg -0.11% | +0.40% | -0.78% | -0.59% | +0.53% | -0.32% | -0.56% | +0.73% | -0.18% | -0.61% | +0.65% | +0.23% | -0.80% |
| 8 Avg -0.05% | -0.82% | +0.34% | -1.31% | -0.86% | +0.66% | +0.73% | -0.34% | +1.15% | -0.71% | -1.01% | +0.58% | +0.97% |
| 9 Avg -0.40% | +0.36% | -0.32% | -2.54% | +2.11% | -1.57% | -1.64% | -0.01% | -0.55% | +1.09% | -0.37% | -0.63% | -0.70% |
| 10 Avg +0.39% | +0.94% | -0.43% | +0.52% | -0.15% | +0.55% | -1.10% | +0.80% | +1.95% | +0.31% | -0.28% | +1.19% | +0.42% |
| 11 Avg +0.13% | -0.29% | +0.36% | +0.24% | +0.82% | -0.46% | -1.36% | +0.29% | -0.67% | +2.00% | -0.51% | +1.21% | -0.08% |
| 12 Avg -0.02% | -0.44% | +1.09% | -1.43% | -1.23% | -0.47% | +0.18% | +0.23% | +0.37% | +1.53% | +0.12% | -0.14% | -0.04% |
| 13 Avg +0.21% | -0.21% | -0.46% | +0.87% | +0.94% | +0.72% | -0.43% | +0.73% | +0.15% | -0.11% | +0.63% | -0.07% | -0.21% |
| 14 Avg -0.07% | +1.15% | +0.52% | -1.31% | +1.15% | +0.04% | -1.28% | -0.65% | -1.32% | -0.67% | -0.48% | +0.58% | +1.47% |
| 15 Avg -0.14% | -0.89% | -0.21% | -1.25% | -0.70% | -0.29% | -0.27% | +0.55% | -0.98% | -0.08% | +1.12% | +1.39% | -0.10% |
| 16 Avg +0.02% | -1.78% | +1.09% | -0.69% | +0.47% | +0.42% | -0.58% | +0.13% | +0.28% | -0.11% | +0.91% | +0.14% | 0.00% |
| 17 Avg +0.10% | +0.14% | -0.36% | +1.79% | +0.63% | +0.98% | -0.65% | -0.12% | -0.95% | -1.01% | +0.51% | +0.02% | +0.25% |
| 18 Avg +0.06% | -0.78% | -0.20% | -1.43% | +0.75% | +0.88% | +0.04% | +0.05% | +0.01% | -0.07% | +1.45% | -0.33% | +0.35% |
| 19 Avg -0.28% | -0.70% | +0.85% | -0.11% | +0.02% | -0.71% | -0.20% | -2.03% | -0.36% | +0.64% | -2.12% | -0.05% | +1.41% |
| 20 Avg +0.12% | +0.53% | +0.19% | +0.18% | -0.97% | +0.34% | +0.11% | -0.05% | -0.11% | +0.06% | +1.17% | -0.79% | +0.76% |
| 21 Avg -0.22% | -2.10% | +0.11% | +1.06% | -2.27% | +0.41% | +0.83% | +1.37% | -0.04% | -2.64% | -0.44% | -0.05% | +1.05% |
| 22 Avg +0.19% | -1.31% | +1.90% | -1.71% | +0.54% | -0.67% | +0.12% | +0.22% | +0.63% | +0.11% | +0.15% | +1.28% | +1.00% |
| 23 Avg -0.03% | +0.55% | -1.77% | -0.81% | -0.89% | -0.37% | +1.01% | -0.21% | +1.81% | -1.30% | +0.56% | +0.36% | +0.66% |
| 24 Avg +0.36% | +0.53% | +0.38% | +3.26% | +0.49% | -0.17% | -0.76% | +0.32% | +0.80% | -0.05% | -1.24% | +1.30% | -0.54% |
| 25 Avg +0.02% | +0.41% | -0.40% | -0.08% | -0.33% | -0.78% | -0.04% | +0.41% | +0.26% | -0.64% | +1.22% | +0.17% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.29% | +0.36% | -1.29% | +0.57% | +1.32% | +1.31% | +0.45% | +0.54% | -0.35% | +0.10% | -0.51% | +0.14% | +0.89% |
| 27 Avg +0.10% | -1.49% | +0.37% | -0.39% | +0.80% | +1.97% | -0.37% | +0.19% | +0.22% | +0.70% | -0.98% | -0.54% | +0.67% |
| 28 Avg +0.12% | -0.84% | -0.83% | +0.11% | +0.45% | -0.07% | +0.99% | -0.04% | +0.16% | +1.82% | -0.64% | +0.46% | -0.13% |
| 29 Avg +0.27% | +0.75% | - | -0.18% | +0.92% | -0.38% | +0.06% | +0.61% | +1.66% | +0.39% | -0.09% | -0.96% | +0.13% |
| 30 Avg -0.57% | -0.69% | - | +0.13% | -1.81% | -0.63% | +0.06% | -0.47% | -1.18% | -1.40% | +0.10% | -0.07% | -0.31% |
| 31 Avg -0.10% | -0.41% | - | +0.08% | - | -1.22% | - | +0.76% | -0.16% | - | +0.11% | - | +0.12% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
