Check historical price trends and seasonality for CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO LTD (600036.SS).
CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO LTD (600036.SS) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +12.60%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Jan 16 for 7 days) is +0.77%.
5 wins 2 losses with a win rate of 71.43%.
1) Overview:
The stock tends to experience a bullish phase from early January, steadily climbing to a peak around late June/early July. From January 3 (+1.1%) to July 6 (+10.9%), the stock demonstrates a consistent upward trend. Following this peak, a bearish phase typically occurs from July to September, with the stock declining to around September 17 (+7.1%). A subsequent recovery phase begins in October, culminating in a strong rally in November, reaching a high on November 20 (+14.8%), before slightly declining towards the end of December 31 (+12.6%).
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Potential buying opportunities arise during the pullback from July to September. Specifically, the period around September 17 (+7.1%) could represent a dip to consider. Another potential entry point could be around the end of October/early November, before the significant November rally. These pullbacks may be attributed to profit-taking after the mid-year gains, presenting opportunities to enter before the year-end surge.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, a strategic approach would involve considering entry points during the late summer/early fall pullback or around late October. The strongest performance is typically observed in November, suggesting a potential exit point near November 20 (+14.8%) to capture gains. However, the stock also shows strength towards the end of December 31 (+12.6%), so holding through the end of the year could also be considered.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-01-16 | 40.9900 | 2025-01-22 | 39.4500 | -1.5400 | -3.76 |
| 2024 | 2024-01-16 | 29.1300 | 2024-01-22 | 30.2500 | 1.1200 | 3.84 |
| 2023 | 2023-01-16 | 40.4700 | 2023-01-22 | 41.0500 | 0.5800 | 1.43 |
| 2020 | 2020-01-16 | 37.9600 | 2020-01-22 | 37.8200 | -0.1400 | -0.37 |
| 2019 | 2019-01-16 | 26.8500 | 2019-01-22 | 26.9800 | 0.1300 | 0.48 |
| 2018 | 2018-01-16 | 31.8900 | 2018-01-22 | 33.0800 | 1.1900 | 3.73 |
| 2017 | 2017-01-16 | 18.5800 | 2017-01-22 | 18.5900 | 0.0100 | 0.05 |
| Avg | 32.2671 | 32.4600 | 0.19 | 0.77 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +5.97% | Feb Total -1.05% | Mar Total -0.05% | Apr Total +0.83% | May Total +2.54% | Jun Total +0.83% | Jul Total -1.21% | Aug Total +0.45% | Sep Total +1.25% | Oct Total -0.79% | Nov Total +3.77% | Dec Total -0.44% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.66% | +0.21% | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.95% | -0.38% | +0.16% | 0.00% | +0.96% | +0.33% |
| 2 Avg -0.04% | +0.02% | -0.17% | -0.19% | +0.08% | +0.02% | -0.02% | -0.55% | -0.53% | +0.38% | 0.00% | +0.33% | +0.19% |
| 3 Avg +0.07% | +0.78% | -0.74% | +0.74% | -0.11% | -0.16% | 0.00% | +0.11% | -0.33% | -0.31% | 0.00% | +0.40% | +0.50% |
| 4 Avg +0.25% | -0.17% | +0.32% | +0.06% | +0.17% | -0.16% | +0.46% | -0.23% | +0.55% | +0.76% | 0.00% | +1.42% | -0.22% |
| 5 Avg +0.15% | +0.22% | +0.33% | +0.63% | -0.01% | +0.01% | -0.17% | +0.38% | -0.07% | -0.24% | 0.00% | -0.01% | +0.69% |
| 6 Avg -0.07% | +0.28% | 0.00% | -0.68% | -0.14% | -0.27% | -0.23% | +0.79% | +0.26% | -0.50% | 0.00% | -0.34% | -0.03% |
| 7 Avg -0.06% | +0.16% | -0.32% | -0.40% | -0.61% | +0.20% | +0.47% | -0.17% | +0.15% | +0.25% | 0.00% | +0.27% | -0.76% |
| 8 Avg -0.10% | -0.24% | -0.11% | -0.79% | +0.25% | +0.59% | +0.19% | -1.13% | -0.16% | +0.04% | +0.34% | -0.19% | +0.04% |
| 9 Avg -0.11% | +0.46% | -0.13% | -0.98% | -0.39% | -0.52% | +0.12% | +0.16% | +0.34% | -0.14% | -0.53% | -0.42% | +0.72% |
| 10 Avg +0.08% | +0.20% | -0.10% | -0.22% | +0.65% | +0.51% | +0.15% | -0.43% | +0.04% | +0.20% | +0.11% | +0.03% | -0.12% |
| 11 Avg +0.18% | +0.73% | +0.46% | +0.45% | -0.19% | +0.33% | +0.06% | -0.51% | +0.10% | -0.41% | +0.09% | +1.11% | -0.07% |
| 12 Avg +0.11% | +0.51% | -0.07% | +0.27% | -0.28% | +0.40% | -0.11% | +0.44% | +0.37% | -0.20% | +0.72% | -0.50% | -0.19% |
| 13 Avg -0.24% | +0.10% | +0.31% | -0.13% | -0.07% | +0.12% | -0.92% | -0.90% | -0.60% | +0.33% | -0.55% | -0.04% | -0.48% |
| 14 Avg +0.03% | -0.26% | +0.06% | -0.40% | +0.16% | +0.23% | -0.14% | -0.64% | +0.06% | -0.63% | +1.02% | +0.73% | +0.13% |
| 15 Avg +0.05% | +0.59% | -0.64% | -0.46% | +0.75% | +0.52% | -0.16% | -0.33% | +0.20% | +0.28% | +0.09% | +0.36% | -0.61% |
| 16 Avg +0.15% | +0.57% | +0.39% | +0.69% | -0.17% | -0.15% | +0.33% | -0.31% | -0.11% | -0.58% | +0.90% | +0.10% | +0.19% |
| 17 Avg 0.00% | -0.16% | +0.01% | -0.05% | +0.44% | +0.34% | +0.05% | -0.07% | -0.01% | -0.15% | -0.35% | 0.00% | -0.06% |
| 18 Avg +0.21% | +0.77% | +0.43% | +0.43% | -0.34% | +0.44% | -0.08% | +0.01% | +0.63% | +0.45% | -0.74% | +0.30% | +0.28% |
| 19 Avg +0.05% | +0.44% | -0.18% | -0.77% | +0.18% | -0.30% | +0.20% | +0.71% | -0.07% | +0.28% | +0.23% | +0.41% | -0.57% |
| 20 Avg +0.15% | +0.28% | +0.80% | +0.61% | -0.25% | +0.67% | +0.28% | +0.87% | -0.12% | -0.30% | -0.29% | +0.02% | -0.81% |
| 21 Avg +0.04% | +0.08% | +0.28% | -0.23% | +0.32% | -0.23% | -0.13% | -0.36% | -0.20% | +0.52% | +0.41% | -0.15% | +0.11% |
| 22 Avg +0.00% | -0.13% | -0.09% | +0.49% | -0.11% | -0.16% | +0.60% | -0.30% | +0.18% | -0.33% | +0.52% | -0.19% | -0.46% |
| 23 Avg 0.00% | +0.05% | +0.21% | -0.33% | +0.28% | -0.43% | +0.10% | -0.10% | +0.57% | +0.01% | -0.39% | -0.17% | +0.15% |
| 24 Avg +0.01% | +0.55% | -0.91% | +0.10% | +0.18% | -0.74% | +0.50% | -0.08% | +0.17% | +0.38% | -0.13% | -0.27% | +0.38% |
| 25 Avg +0.19% | +0.42% | +0.18% | -0.34% | -0.56% | +0.93% | -0.33% | +0.89% | +0.69% | -0.08% | +0.13% | +0.40% | -0.08% |
| 26 Avg -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.92% | -0.31% | -0.60% | +0.16% | -0.62% | -0.50% | -0.83% | +0.68% | -0.28% | -0.08% | -0.07% |
| 27 Avg +0.13% | +0.26% | +0.08% | +0.37% | -0.02% | +0.22% | +0.69% | -0.13% | +0.15% | +0.03% | +0.24% | +0.02% | -0.34% |
| 28 Avg -0.05% | -0.52% | -0.54% | -0.23% | +0.88% | +0.27% | -0.78% | +0.47% | +0.48% | +0.17% | -0.56% | -0.81% | +0.61% |
| 29 Avg -0.04% | +0.01% | - | +0.46% | +0.68% | -0.24% | +0.05% | -0.09% | -0.74% | -0.01% | -0.81% | +0.72% | -0.44% |
| 30 Avg -0.11% | -0.07% | - | +0.61% | -0.55% | -0.21% | +0.28% | -0.22% | -0.59% | +0.21% | -0.51% | -0.61% | +0.47% |
| 31 Avg +0.06% | +0.41% | - | -0.10% | - | +0.12% | - | +0.09% | +0.25% | - | -0.44% | - | +0.06% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
