Check historical price trends and seasonality for S&P 500 Index (^GSPC).
S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) average YTD return over the past 10 years is +13.92%.
Over the past 10 years, the return for the specified period (Feb 26 for 30 days) is -2.03%.
4 wins 3 losses with a win rate of 57.14%.
1) Overview:
The S&P 500 index typically experiences a strong bullish phase from February through July, starting with a gain of +1.8% by February 1st and peaking around +8.8% by July 31st. After this peak, the index tends to consolidate through October, before entering another bullish phase in November. The year typically concludes with significant gains in December, reaching +14.3% by December 13th and remaining high at +13.9% by December 31st.
2) Buy-the-dip points:
Historically, a potential buying opportunity arises around March 23rd, where the index shows an average dip of -1.2%. This pullback in late March is followed by a recovery throughout April, presenting a chance to capitalize on the rebound.
3) Summary:
Based on the 10-year average seasonality, consider initiating long positions after the dip around March 23rd to take advantage of the subsequent rally. The strongest seasonal strength appears in December, particularly around December 13th and December 31st, suggesting that holding positions through year-end could be beneficial.
| Year | Start Date | Start Price | End Date | End Price | Return | Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2025-02-26 | 5,956.0601 | 2025-03-27 | 5,693.3101 | -262.7500 | -4.41 |
| 2024 | 2024-02-26 | 5,069.5298 | 2024-03-26 | 5,203.5801 | 134.0503 | 2.64 |
| 2021 | 2021-02-26 | 3,811.1499 | 2021-03-27 | 3,974.5400 | 163.3901 | 4.29 |
| 2020 | 2020-02-26 | 3,116.3899 | 2020-03-26 | 2,630.0701 | -486.3198 | -15.61 |
| 2019 | 2019-02-26 | 2,793.8999 | 2019-03-27 | 2,805.3701 | 11.4702 | 0.41 |
| 2018 | 2018-02-26 | 2,779.6001 | 2018-03-27 | 2,612.6201 | -166.9800 | -6.01 |
| 2016 | 2016-02-26 | 1,948.0500 | 2016-03-26 | 2,035.9399 | 87.8899 | 4.51 |
| Avg | 3,639.2400 | 3,565.0615 | -74.18 | -2.03 |
| Day \ Month | Jan Total +1.41% | Feb Total -0.48% | Mar Total +0.47% | Apr Total +1.19% | May Total +1.50% | Jun Total +1.86% | Jul Total +3.35% | Aug Total +0.96% | Sep Total -1.34% | Oct Total +0.68% | Nov Total +4.10% | Dec Total +0.04% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Avg +0.08% | 0.00% | +0.46% | +0.40% | -0.09% | -0.29% | +0.25% | +0.32% | -0.44% | +0.15% | +0.02% | +0.27% | -0.06% |
| 2 Avg +0.11% | +0.10% | +0.09% | +0.67% | 0.00% | +0.18% | +0.53% | +0.29% | -0.49% | +0.05% | -0.23% | -0.03% | +0.11% |
| 3 Avg -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.22% | -0.44% | -0.46% | +0.11% | -0.05% | +0.20% | +0.34% | -0.58% | +0.18% | +0.23% | -0.01% |
| 4 Avg +0.12% | +0.18% | +0.47% | +0.07% | -0.59% | +0.28% | +0.33% | 0.00% | +0.10% | +0.08% | +0.37% | +0.27% | -0.17% |
| 5 Avg -0.01% | -0.14% | -0.39% | -0.04% | +0.09% | -0.10% | +0.38% | +0.06% | -0.45% | -0.08% | +0.30% | +0.44% | -0.15% |
| 6 Avg +0.12% | +0.27% | +0.16% | -0.36% | +0.54% | -0.03% | +0.32% | +0.14% | +0.42% | -0.25% | -0.05% | +0.24% | +0.07% |
| 7 Avg +0.02% | -0.20% | -0.12% | -0.40% | -0.11% | +0.12% | +0.16% | +0.02% | +0.06% | +0.09% | -0.23% | +0.67% | +0.18% |
| 8 Avg +0.07% | +0.27% | -0.45% | -0.29% | +0.23% | +0.21% | +0.14% | +0.09% | +0.41% | -0.23% | +0.06% | +0.17% | +0.22% |
| 9 Avg +0.05% | +0.06% | +0.30% | -0.31% | +1.16% | -0.26% | -0.34% | +0.22% | -0.16% | +0.20% | +0.25% | -0.23% | -0.27% |
| 10 Avg +0.04% | -0.04% | +0.01% | +0.13% | -0.22% | +0.25% | -0.26% | +0.35% | +0.01% | -0.16% | -0.51% | +0.78% | +0.13% |
| 11 Avg -0.07% | +0.25% | -0.27% | -0.29% | -0.01% | -0.37% | -0.56% | -0.19% | -0.05% | +0.48% | -0.23% | +0.17% | +0.19% |
| 12 Avg +0.11% | +0.20% | +0.54% | -0.76% | -0.02% | -0.14% | +0.33% | +0.35% | +0.34% | +0.33% | +0.18% | -0.23% | +0.17% |
| 13 Avg +0.05% | -0.23% | +0.17% | +0.76% | +0.18% | -0.07% | -0.44% | -0.06% | +0.31% | -0.44% | +0.31% | -0.03% | +0.18% |
| 14 Avg +0.07% | +0.08% | +0.22% | +0.16% | +0.20% | +0.41% | -0.03% | +0.22% | -0.03% | +0.17% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.47% |
| 15 Avg +0.15% | +0.02% | +0.52% | +0.25% | -0.26% | +0.27% | +0.28% | +0.23% | +0.03% | +0.07% | +0.06% | +0.17% | +0.16% |
| 16 Avg -0.04% | +0.01% | -0.02% | -0.76% | -0.06% | +0.17% | -0.10% | -0.06% | +0.17% | -0.20% | +0.30% | +0.17% | -0.11% |
| 17 Avg +0.04% | +0.20% | -0.06% | +0.76% | +0.43% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.30% | -0.21% | +0.32% | -0.16% | -0.40% |
| 18 Avg -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.17% | -0.51% | +0.04% | -0.07% | -0.03% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.16% |
| 19 Avg -0.01% | +0.04% | +0.07% | +0.06% | -0.02% | -0.17% | +0.02% | +0.01% | -0.02% | +0.29% | -0.22% | -0.07% | -0.07% |
| 20 Avg -0.09% | +0.13% | -0.18% | -0.31% | -0.31% | +0.24% | +0.01% | +0.26% | +0.01% | -0.36% | +0.02% | -0.36% | -0.22% |
| 21 Avg -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.49% | +0.14% | -0.67% | -0.06% | +0.26% | +0.18% | +0.22% | -0.38% | +0.30% | +0.25% | +0.18% |
| 22 Avg +0.06% | +0.20% | +0.22% | -0.43% | +0.21% | -0.01% | +0.14% | +0.17% | -0.09% | +0.21% | -0.10% | +0.22% | -0.01% |
| 23 Avg +0.00% | +0.23% | -0.07% | -0.75% | +0.48% | -0.16% | +0.30% | +0.13% | 0.00% | -0.37% | -0.08% | +0.07% | +0.27% |
| 24 Avg +0.12% | -0.02% | -0.17% | +1.25% | +0.31% | +0.17% | -0.19% | -0.16% | 0.00% | -0.08% | +0.07% | +0.37% | -0.10% |
| 25 Avg +0.08% | -0.02% | -0.24% | +0.20% | -0.02% | +0.25% | -0.05% | +0.07% | +0.23% | +0.16% | +0.21% | +0.22% | 0.00% |
| 26 Avg +0.10% | +0.33% | -0.03% | +0.99% | -0.03% | +0.47% | -0.18% | +0.07% | -0.19% | -0.29% | -0.54% | +0.08% | +0.57% |
| 27 Avg -0.04% | -0.71% | -0.67% | -0.50% | +0.39% | +0.65% | -0.16% | +0.14% | +0.19% | +0.02% | -0.02% | +0.04% | +0.12% |
| 28 Avg +0.10% | +0.51% | -0.16% | -0.05% | +0.16% | -0.15% | +0.16% | +0.16% | +0.17% | +0.28% | +0.07% | +0.18% | -0.12% |
| 29 Avg +0.11% | -0.01% | - | +0.56% | +0.02% | -0.17% | +0.28% | +0.29% | +0.26% | -0.30% | +0.08% | +0.11% | +0.05% |
| 30 Avg +0.02% | -0.07% | - | +0.37% | -0.38% | +0.08% | +0.41% | -0.24% | +0.06% | +0.03% | +0.02% | +0.25% | -0.27% |
| 31 Avg -0.05% | +0.03% | - | -0.12% | - | -0.26% | - | +0.15% | -0.09% | - | -0.08% | - | +0.04% |
| Rank | Stock | Avg Return (%) | Wins | Losses |
|---|
